Will Republicans in New York lose their State Senate majority

[Napoleon]

By all held, I just mean they keep 32 in total.

[Napoleon]

They could convince Carlucci to join them possibly. They really needed to do better in Westchester last year. Grisanti is almost certain to lose. I'm not even if sure if they'll have a majority of Long Island seats by the end of this cycle.

[Napoleon]

Grisanti's new district will gain white working class voters and drop black voters.  He will have a chance.

Even without Paladino? I'm not convinced. Wasn't Grisanti a liberal Democrat who ran as a Republican instead of in the Democratic party?

[Napoleon]

The only way would be to build up in Westchester but Oppenheimer isn't going anywhere and that county has shifted so much to the Democrats that its probably impossible. They could try dicing up Albany but that would likely just cause a dummymander situation. Grisanti could side with the Democrats on redistricting, unless he feels loyalty to the Republicans. The four IDs also hurt the Democrats in the Senate now, but no way that'll last.

[Napoleon]

I don't think they can use prison populations to manipulate voting population anymore.

[Napoleon]

Its pretty blatant that doing so violates the spirit of one man one vote.

[Napoleon]

The only way would be to build up in Westchester but Oppenheimer isn't going anywhere and that county has shifted so much to the Democrats that its probably impossible. They could try dicing up Albany but that would likely just cause a dummymander situation. Grisanti could side with the Democrats on redistricting, unless he feels loyalty to the Republicans. The four IDs also hurt the Democrats in the Senate now, but no way that'll last.

Oppenheimer almost lost her last election and is in her 70s.  She could be out of office soon, by the ballot box or retirement.

It is possible to create a more Republican-friendly State Senate district in central/southern Westchester if Republicans dared to.  It would have to take up Eastchester, Mount Pleasant and perhaps part Harrison while minimizing territory in more Democratic-leaning areas like Scarsdale, Greenburgh and White Plains on the way to consolidating those two or three towns in one district.  In the 2000 redistricting, Republicans put Eastchester and Mount Pleasant in two districts to keep two Republican incumbents in power.  Both seats are currently represented by Democrats, so that's no longer necessary.

She held on in 2010, the worst year for Democrats since 1994. She isn't going anywhere.

I agree though that there's room for a more Republican friendly seat in Westchester. The GOP has less incumbents to protect this time around, but also less voters and gerrymandering tricks to do so with.

[Napoleon]

Kruger represents a very conservative Jewish area.

[Napoleon]

Sorry to burst your bubble but cinyc's last sentence nailed it. It doesn't hurt that's Republicans had three sacrificial lambs for Governor and Senate.

[Napoleon]

Sorry to burst your bubble but cinyc's last sentence nailed it. It doesn't hurt that's Republicans had three sacrificial lambs for Governor and Senate.

How is losing six House seats in one state anything other than horrible?  The last time Democrats lost that many seats in the state was 1946 and that is when the state had far more seats to lose.

Democrats didn't lose any seats they held in 2005. They still hold NY-23.

[Napoleon]

Sorry to burst your bubble but cinyc's last sentence nailed it. It doesn't hurt that's Republicans had three sacrificial lambs for Governor and Senate.

How is losing six House seats in one state anything other than horrible?  The last time Democrats lost that many seats in the state was 1946 and that is when the state had far more seats to lose.

Democrats didn't lose any seats they held in 2005. They still hold NY-23.

They lost many seats that they should have been able to hold like NY-13, NY-19 and NY-25.  NY-29 was arguably the only seat that they should have lost based on statewide results.

The same can be said of Republicans in 2006 and 2008. Fossella always won in landslides. NY-13 isn't a lean Dem district. The better question is how did Bishop manage to hang on?

[Napoleon]

What percent of voters care about redistricting?  Most probably don't even know what it is.

[Napoleon]

What percent of voters care about redistricting?  Most probably don't even know what it is.

We're assuming he has further ambitions -- some large percentage of editorial boards and critics would definitely latch onto him forcing a mid-decade redistricting plan if he were to ever run for VP or P.

Which doesn't mean people all of a sudden care. Who is going to decide not to vote for Cuomo for doing something that is commonplace in modern politics?