MI-EPIC/MRA: Romney 46% Obama 41%

[Napoleon]

This screams outlier. Romney carries MI if the national climate is so bad he's also carrying WA, OR and NJ, plus competetive in CA and CT.

Actually, Michigan would flip before OR and way before WA or NJ. Bush didn't lose Michigan by that much in 2004 and Republicans aren't poorly organized there. The state is also changing due to population issues. That will have an effect on its political leanings. Detroit is shrinking relative to the state as a whole.

John Kerry won Michigan by only 3.4%.