Why did Dems try to save Mark Pryor in 2014 after seeing 2010?

[freepcrusher]

Yeah, this made no sense. In fact, Mark Pryor was going to lose regardless of who the President was.

Eh that's debatable. I could see Pryor holding on by the skin of his teeth if Romney had won in 2012. Would depend on how bad the national environment is for the GOP, and if Pryor still faced Cotton or someone else.

I don't think the national environment would have made a darn difference to be honest. Arkansas was simply too red by the point, and Obama's presence likely poisoned ticket splitting. At best Pryor would have lost by high single digits in a good environment, in my opinion. 

how did Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson easily win reelection in Bush +20 states in 2006?

[freepcrusher]

Yeah, this made no sense. In fact, Mark Pryor was going to lose regardless of who the President was.

Eh that's debatable. I could see Pryor holding on by the skin of his teeth if Romney had won in 2012. Would depend on how bad the national environment is for the GOP, and if Pryor still faced Cotton or someone else.

I don't think the national environment would have made a darn difference to be honest. Arkansas was simply too red by the point, and Obama's presence likely poisoned ticket splitting. At best Pryor would have lost by high single digits in a good environment, in my opinion. 

how did Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson easily win reelection in Bush +20 states in 2006?

Blue wave year and there was less polarization.

it was only eight years between 2006 and 2014. If you had an unpopular president Romney in 2014, would there really be that much of a difference between those eight years?

[freepcrusher]

Yeah, this made no sense. In fact, Mark Pryor was going to lose regardless of who the President was.

Eh that's debatable. I could see Pryor holding on by the skin of his teeth if Romney had won in 2012. Would depend on how bad the national environment is for the GOP, and if Pryor still faced Cotton or someone else.

I don't think the national environment would have made a darn difference to be honest. Arkansas was simply too red by the point, and Obama's presence likely poisoned ticket splitting. At best Pryor would have lost by high single digits in a good environment, in my opinion.  

how did Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson easily win reelection in Bush +20 states in 2006?

Blue wave year and there was less polarization.

it was only eight years between 2006 and 2014. If you had an unpopular president Romney in 2014, would there really be that much of a difference between those eight years?

We had a President Trump in 2018 who was probably significantly more unpopular than a President Romney ever would have been, and 4 incumbent Democrats lost re-election, 3 of which were in states less Republican than Arkansas. No doubt Pryor was going to lose in 2014 whether Obama or Romney were President.

so are you saying 2010 changed everything then?

[freepcrusher]

Yeah, this made no sense. In fact, Mark Pryor was going to lose regardless of who the President was.

Eh that's debatable. I could see Pryor holding on by the skin of his teeth if Romney had won in 2012. Would depend on how bad the national environment is for the GOP, and if Pryor still faced Cotton or someone else.

I don't think the national environment would have made a darn difference to be honest. Arkansas was simply too red by the point, and Obama's presence likely poisoned ticket splitting. At best Pryor would have lost by high single digits in a good environment, in my opinion.  

how did Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson easily win reelection in Bush +20 states in 2006?

Blue wave year and there was less polarization.

it was only eight years between 2006 and 2014. If you had an unpopular president Romney in 2014, would there really be that much of a difference between those eight years?

We had a President Trump in 2018 who was probably significantly more unpopular than a President Romney ever would have been, and 4 incumbent Democrats lost re-election, 3 of which were in states less Republican than Arkansas. No doubt Pryor was going to lose in 2014 whether Obama or Romney were President.

so are you saying 2010 changed everything then?

Obama's election for a lot of unfortunate reasons, basically made historical Democrats, who started voting Republican presidential-wise, realize what the modern Democratic Party really represented.

For example, you mentioned Kent Conrad, and Ben Nelson. I don't think it's a coincidence that both of them retired six years later. The national environment had changed massively overnight.

nelson, due to being seen as the 60th vote with the cornhusker kickback, was effectively f-cked. Conrad on the other hand probably gets 58-59 percent of the vote in 2012. Don't forget that, against all odds, the dems managed to retain that seat.

[freepcrusher]

someone should do an analysis of what wave patterns look like. For instance I felt 1974 1994 and even 2006 had sort of a random distribution, the best metaphor would be like an epidemic like that in 1918 - some lived and some didn't.

2010-14-18 felt more like either a tornado or a plane crash where you have a decent amount of survivors (which does happen on occasion). In the case of the tornado you had the areas straight in the path and other areas that were in the radius where the survival rate was higher and areas completely out of the damage path. In the case of a plane crash you have instances like Delta 191 where all the survivors clustered in the back (because it broke off before doing a head on crash) or American 1420 where almost everyone survived and all the people killed were clustered near where the plane broke apart.