The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

If: Mike Beebe runs for Senate in 2016, while Boozman faces a Tea Party challenger or two and a moderate challenger in the primaries. Tea Partier and businessman Curtis Coleman runs an independent campaign , and he garners five to ten percent in most polls. Beebe wins 47-46-7.

From here, Marco Rubio is elected President in 2016, and a minor recession occurs from 2017-2018. Blanche Lincoln is elected Governor in 2018 as Rubio's approval rating in Arkansas hits 45-51, and 43-52 nationwide. Lincoln wins 49-47. While it recovers some by January 2020, it is still 49-46 in Arkansas and 45-50 nationwide.

Senator Brian Schatz runs and wins the nomination after a contested primary fight against Senator Julian Castro, Governor Blanche Lincoln, Representative Jared Polis, and a few fairly minor others. He picks Blanche Lincoln as his running-mate.

On Election Day, 2020, Rubio's approval rating is 47-48 in Arkansas and 46-49 nationwide.

297: Senator Brian Schatz(D-HI)/Governor Blanche Lincoln(D-AR) - 50.1%
241: President Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Governor Ed Gillespie(R-VA)- 48.7%
Other: 1.1%

Indiana would be blue and vote Rubio in this scenario thank you very much.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

Joe Donnelly will be "lucky" to get reelected in 2018 here because of the Iran deal.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

If the Democrats nominate Evan Bayh for VP, and the GOP nominates Trump or some other whacko (and/or splits between the Tea Party and the establishment), I could see a Democrat carrying Indiana by a slim margin. It would help if the economy tanks under a Republican president, as happened in 2008.

Popular democrat with Joe Donnely on the ticket takes on extremely unpopular nonmidwestern republican who makes inflammatory statements.

Joe Donnelly will be "lucky" to get reelected in 2018 here because of the Iran deal. "D" next to his name.

Fixed.

Pulling one of my tricks there Truman. Silent Joe will lose to the GOP (Stutzman, Holcomb, Young) by a lot.