Democrats: Barack Obama/Gavin Newsom
Republican: George Pataki/Jeb Bush
Independent (Tea Party): Ron Paul/Marco Rubio
The Tea Party officially splits from the Republicans in the spring of 2011 following a debacle in the House over the debt ceiling. Most social conservatives and moderates remain in the Republican Party. In 2012, the Tea Party holds primaries just like the GOP and the Dems. Palin, due to an identity crisis, doesn't run.
In the end, Ron Paul wins the TP nomination while George Pataki barely wins the GOP nomination over Romney. Obama survives a formidable primary challenge form Dennis Kuchinich, Howard Dean, and Mike Gravel and chooses Gavin Newsom as his running mate hoping to bring the party back together.
On Election Day, unemployment stands at 9.2% nationwide. Obama's approvals are at around 43%.
Rasmussen'sll last nationwide poll (MoE +/- 4%)
Obama--36%
Pataki--35%
Paul--20%
Other/Undecided--9%
Discuss with maps. Will Paul win a state?
Most Social Conservatives would go Tea Party because Pataki is not Pro-Life. He'd keep most neocons and those RINOS the Tea Partiers attack. Take Indiana for instance, all of the GOP Congressmen would bolt with maybe the exception of Rokita unless Daniels goes Tea Party.
