Scottish independence - The Official Atlas Forum mock referendum

[Foucaulf]

If the Scots vote for independence, they should be free to do so. But policy-wise the Yes campaign is weak on arguments:

- A currency union with the pound sterling, one of the most highly traded currencies in the world, will require stringent fiscal and monetary convergence. If the BoE had its way the Scottish Treasury will be spending even less.
- Scotland is still a highly homogeneous society, with nearly 9/10th of the population being white. Imagine them to go into an uproar once the government is targeting other groups. (s/o to Al for suggesting this)
- Typical warning about North Sea oil drying up soon. Not only that, but Scottish-incorporated companies will want to move more of its operations to countries with less macroeconomic volatility in the short run. The modern Scottish economy, driven on oil and finance, will hit a blow.
- all of this compounds to higher interest rates for Scottish business and the government, which will keep any kind of deficit spending more difficult.

Does that mean there aren't reasons for voting Yes? Of course not - but it explains why economists err toward No while Yes is favoured by artists and writers. Let's not kid ourselves that, when Scotland has to cut to satisfy creditors, it will do so on the demographic with the least political power - youth. I'd be getting out of the country before that happens.

[Foucaulf]

This idea seems far fetched. Why should we imagine such a thing in a country where integration works relatively smoothly? A recent poll showed 94% of minorities consider themselves Scottish, that's a pretty high number.

Why should the government even specifically "target" other groups  and not just threat them equally?

In the 2011 census only 4% of the population came from non-White ethnic minorities, so I don't know how you get to 10%+. There aren't that many adopted children in Scotland

Sorry about the number; I pulled one out of my head and didn't cross-check it. I highly expect Scotland will have a skilled-worker focus, which is what I meant when I said "target". But there will be greater amounts of non-white skilled workers than white skilled workers, controlling for EU integration.

I guess I'm saying here is that there will be anti-immigration sentiments, and there will be a populist movement in an independent Scotland like we have seen in Western European countries. I am probably assuming here a decline with living standards associated with an independent Scotland.

You guys do realize that the economic arguments you are using for why Scotland should not leave the UK are similar to points made by anti-Free Staters in the 1920s as to why the Irish Free State would be a failure, right?

The Irish Free State was much poorer back then compared to Scotland today. Ireland upon independence didn't have a welfare state, free education or an international banking sector. Scotland has all of that, which makes the picture more complicated.

Again, there are important non-economic reasons for voting for independence. But for the Yes campaign to promise that an independent Scotland will have free higher education and subsidized daycare in 10-15 years is pure fantasy. If Scotland can vote to leave the UK, Scots can also vote with their feet.