I addressed the article. The article works from a premise that there was even some kind of reasonable plan to begin with. It's part of human nature to assume there is some underlying order to the chaos. In this case there doesn't appear to be. Talk of Obamacare has faded and we even have a Congressman admitting he doesn't even know what he wants.
Step 1. Shut down the Government
Step 2. Figure out what you want
Sorry, I did read your post - I just use quotes as a kickoff point for my own (and this is going to be a long-ass post, so hang tight)
I just did some thinking on which internal dynamics we're looking for. Assuming the common knowledge that most Congressional Republicans would vote for a clean continuing resolution and that the hard right caucus gets their power from forcing a leadership vote, we should be looking for the dynamics of the
leadership.
I get your idea that the leadership is mired in chaos, but do not fully agree with it. At the minimum, I believe they have establish a deadline of x days until the debt ceiling before which they are not willing to negotiate. The question I'm asking for now is how we can figure out that deadline, and what can be done to accelerate it.
I can think of two evident solutions: financial panic and doubling down. The former I already discusses, and the latter would be something like Obama/Ds demanding also a return to pre-sequester funding levels. I want to support the latter idea by saying it would destroy all existing endgame plans for the leadership and leave them unmoored. On the other hand, doing so would be a political death pill and fits into the conservative talking point of the administration being vindictive in its negotiations, which makes it even tougher for the leadership to fight against it.
We don't have enough information, then, to predict how we can design something that would entice the leadership into doing what the majority population wants - passing a CR. Which leads into the one concrete point I want to make: Obama has been way too passive this week. He should have been tempting the leadership, making statements, learning how they and the rank-and-file members react.
He could have lost popularity, but he's losing it anyways by letting the shutdown stretch out. He's using too much of Clinton's tactics when the enemy this time has a completely different organization, and even Clinton back in the days talked instead of waiting, and eventually forced Gingrich to the brink. Inaction guarantees a fog of war; doing something at least lets one see something.
(Feel free to question my evidence or propose other solutions.)
