Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[Paleobrazilian]

New IBOPE numbers are out. Dilma seems to gain steam with undecideds, Marina increases 4%, most of them from Aécio probably. The very low number of undecideds (5%) indicates we're now close to stability.



Curiously, there's good news here for everyone. For Marina, it shows she's still ahead in a head to head with Dilma, with very few undecideds (6%), so Dilma would have to swing votes from Marina to defeat her in a runoff. For Dilma, her approval ratings have improved, and that may swing undecideds and even some Marina votes to her. For Aécio (and his party), it shows he still has a floor around 15%, making him still a relevant factor through this cycle.

[Paleobrazilian]

New Datafolha numbers confirm the trends shown by IBOPE. This Datafolha poll had over 10000 voters polled, making this a very reliable poll.

[Paleobrazilian]

A huge corruption scandal in Petrobras has started to leak yesterday. It implicates three governors (including Eduardo Campos), a few ministers and many important legislators. Some PT leaders already believe the scandal will have big political consequences and could seriously damage the party.

[Paleobrazilian]

Well, well, well...

The "surprise of september" is not a surprise anymore. There is a "big scandal" in every month of september in every even numbered year.
The "dossiê dos aloprados 1.0" didn't work in the election of 2006. The "dossiê dos aloprados 2.0" and "Erenice" didn't work in the election of 2010.

Dilma Roussef can loose the election because of the weak economy. But, probably, this scandal will not hurt her. The bribes in Petrobrás under the diretor Paulo Roberto Costa took place between 2004 and 2012. Dilma Roussef fired Paulo Roberto Costa in 2012.

There are a few differences between those scandals you mentioned and this one that's brewing. First, we still don't know everything the whistleblower has told and what he still has to tell (because it's believed he's still telling what he knows to the prosecutors). But what he has told by now is already way more damaging than any other scandal since 2005, a corruption scandal that implicates 3 governors, 2 cabinet members, the President of the Senate, the President of the Chamber, congressmen and the PT's treasurer. If more info is uncovered this week, this may well change fortunes for many. Plus, it's not like this will affect the national race only, this could have ramifications on plenty state races. Finally, remember those scandals you mentioned involved no taxpayers' money, this time about 1,2 billion reais (500 million dollars) supposedly disappeared from Petrobras. It'll depend a lot on what we learn the next week, but this has the potential to change the game, IMO.

[Paleobrazilian]

There is no gay marriage in Brazil. There is civil union right recognized by the Supreme Court in 2011.
The gay activists want the approval of the gay marriage. If it is not possible, they want at least that the civil union to be recognized by law and not only by a decision of the Supreme Court.

Only small candidates like Luciana Genro and Eduardo Jorge support gay marriage. Not only Marina Silva, but also Dilma Roussef and Aécio Neves do not support gay marriage. The gay activists became angry with Marina Silva because she removed gay marriage from her program after the request of Reverend Silas Mafaia, in order to have his endorsement during the campaign. And of course, they hate a candidate backed by a religious who is not only against gay marriage but also consider homossexuality a "bad behavior".

Actually according to a regulation issued by the CNJ, register offices are now obliged to celebrate gay marriages. There are some questions about the constitutionality of the regulation, but gay marriage is already a de facto reality in Brazil.

[Paleobrazilian]

Even after all attacks and negative ads, Marina's position is basically unchanged according to Datafolha. Dilma pulled a bit closer in a runoff but the oscillation was inside the margin of error. As I said before, we're extremely close to stability. I could see Aecio bleeding a bit further (but now more unlikely as Marina is stabilized and there's no real possibility of a 1st round win) and perhaps the Petrobras scandal could hurt Dilma a bit (we should see if that happens next week).

Usually big oscillations in campaigns here in Brazil only happen when TV ads start (when people realize an election is coming) and about one week to go until the election (when the undecideds are forced to decide).

[Paleobrazilian]

Marina would form a coalition involving the parties she already has on her side + those supporting Aecio. Then she'd go after the PSD and the PDT, two parties that would very likely endorse her as well. That's enough for a small majority in both chambers of Congress, but would make passing constitutional amendments extremely tough. The PROS is a dark horse, they'd probably move to the opposition if Ciro Gomes is not joking about running for President in 2018 (even though he's probably irrelevant nationally right now). Finally, if Marina's "new politics" slogan is for real, she won't compromise with the PR, the PP and specially the PMDB. I feel she believes she can form a coalition that can break down those parties, just like Lula did when faced with the PFL-DEM.

Overall, she'd form more of a center to center-right coalition, perhaps trying to force the PT-PCdoB group to adopt a farther left speech that could annoy middle class voters.

[Paleobrazilian]

Well, it is not easy to say who is better, Ibope or Datafolha.

Ibope interviews 1200 people at their homes (sometimes, this institute interviews 2000 people). Datafolha interviews 5300 people on the streets (sometimes, this institute interviews 10000 people). A bigger sample is a little bit more precise. But just a little. Professors of Statistics say that when a sample is big enough, it doesn't get much better if it gets bigger. Of course, a 100 people sample would be a very bad one, but 1200 is not.
Datafolha has a bigger sample, but the probability of having a biased sample when the people are interviewed on the streets and not in their homes is bigger.
In 2010, both Ibope and Datafolha predicted in the first round eve that Dilma would have 50% of the valid votes, and actually, she had 46,5%.

It is possible to ready a little bit more about these two polls

Metodology of Ibope: http://pesqele.tse.jus.br/pesqele/publico/pesquisa/Pesquisa/visualizacaoPublica.action?id=25324

Metodology of Datafolha: http://pesqele.tse.jus.br/pesqele/publico/pesquisa/Pesquisa/visualizacaoPublica.action?id=25305

I actually feel polling in Brazil is much better than polling in other countries, specially because public polls must be registered at the TSE and if they don't follow solid standards public release of them is forbidden. Also, polling a country where voting is mandatory is probably a bit easier as abstention is rarely a factor (even though sometimes it has been).

Still, mistakes happen, some of them unforgivable. Back in 2010, Ibope missed by nearly 5% in Dilma's favor in the first round, and Datafolha missed by nearly 5% in Alckmin's favor in the first round. In 2012, Ibope was also fairly inaccurate polling São Paulo in the runoff (not enough to influence the race, but still a considerable miss). The biggest swings tend to happen on the last week of the campaign, when undecideds are forced to decide and when many unsolidified votes change their minds.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa is climbing over 2% with rumors that tonight's IBOPE numbers will show Dilma declining.

Edit: Bovespa is now gaining over 3%. Petrobras' stock is gaining around 5%. All state-owned companies are having substantial gains, just like Itaú, one of Brazil's largest private banks, strongly tied to Marina's campaign.

Edit 2: Petrobras is now climbing over 8%. It could be a bubble, but it's strongly believed important info has leaked from IBOPE. Not only it's widely believed Marina will be ahead outside the MOE in a runoff tonight, some also believe this poll will show Aecio regaining ground.

[Paleobrazilian]

Here's why the market was so excited. Not only Dilma has declined outside the MOE in the first round, Aecio has a 4% gain and is suddenly viable again.



Runoff numbers:

Marina 43% (stable)
Dilma 40% (- 2%)

Dilma 44% (- 4%)
Aecio 37% (+ 4%)

[Paleobrazilian]

Are the "Rejeição" numbers essentially disapproval ratings?

Essentially but not exactly. The question made for rejeição ratings is "which candidate(s) would you never vote for?". This because you could dislike/disapprove someone but still vote for him if you feel there's a "bigger evil".

Those ratings are currently the more worrisome for President Rousseff. 1/3 of Brazilian voters say they'd never vote for her. Her ceiling in a runoff is no higher than about 55% of the valid votes. What helps her is that her floor is high anyway (around 40% of the valid votes). Those 15% that separate Dilma's floor from Dilma's ceiling are the voters that will most likely decide this election.

[Paleobrazilian]

New Datafolha numbers seem to contradict IBOPE just a little when it comes to Aecio. Otherwise the polls seem to confirm the same trends.



The next tracking polls, and the next IBOPE which will be released Tuesday, will be decisive for Aecio. If he doesn't come up with significant gains, the PSDB and its allies will start migrating to Marina quickly, and he'll be forced to spend the last 2 weeks of campaign in Minas Gerais trying to save the local PSDB that's losing that governorship to the PT after 12 years of rule (probably the only relevant governorship the PT will be have on their hands after this cycle).

If he gains significant ground, though, party leaders will be forced to rally around him until the end - not exactly what Geraldo Alckmin and Beto Richa have in mind, as they're poised to win in the 1st round (possibly in convincing fashion), posting their names on the front burner for 2018.

Meanwhile, with Marina's growing rejection, and Dilma still deeply rejected for an incumbent running for reelection, this runoff is shaping up to be an extremely ugly battle of two candidates trying to scare voters away from the other candidate. Dilma has been running tons of negative ads for the last two weeks and Marina has started to run ads responding directly to the President. It'll only get uglier, specially because in a runoff both Marina and Dilma will have exactly the same TV time (today Dilma has about 5x more time than Marina). "Project Fear" is coming to Brazil.

PS: Runoff numbers are 46 Marina (-1%) x 44 Dilma (+1%) and 49 Dilma (stable) x 39 Aecio (+1%).

[Paleobrazilian]

According to Datafolha 70% voters don't know who they'll vote for the lower house of Congress. The proportional system has proved to be a huge failure and is a reason why Congress is so unpopular and clearly in need of reform.

All candidates claim to be in favor of reform. Dilma (and the PT) want to adopt the party-list system. Aecio (and the PSDB) and Marina favor a combined district system, like the one adopted by Germany, so there's ground for Marina and the PSDB to compromise when it comes to political and electoral reform.

Sadly, I'm still not optimistic we'll see a political reform in 2015.

[Paleobrazilian]

Aécio is partially doing Dilma's job and stealing votes from Marina in the first round and making things worst for her in the second round.

Now I believe that Marina rejection is rising mainly due to PSDB voters. That's good for Aécio in the first round but if he is not able to turn things up, which I don't think he really can, he will probably find himself not being in the second round and being responsible for a rise in Marina's rejection, helping Dilma at the end.

And that's why he's taking a lot of heat from allies and even from many within his party. The PSDB knows this scenario all too well, as they made a similar blunder back in 2002 when they torpedoed Ciro Gomes (a former PSDB member who they could have easily worked with after the election) believing they could elect Serra in a runoff against Lula, even though the national mood was clearly anti-PSDB and avoiding Lula's election should have been their main target.

Of course, Aecio has no other alternative if he wants to stay viable for 2018 and beyond - he has to go after Marina to get as many votes as possible. Anything short of the 25% of valid votes would very likely kill his chances of running for President again anytime soon - at least as PSDB's candidate.

[Paleobrazilian]

Superique, Paleobrazilian, would you vote for Marina in the 2nd round? Proudly or reluctantly?

I'd definitely vote her against Dilma. I like most of what she says. I'm just unenthusiastic about her "new politics". In fact, I'm unconvinced about how this would work, even though I can imagine her coalition as I said before. She promises way too many constitutional changes (specially the political reform and the tax system reform) which would be hard to pass without solid support in Congress.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa is sliding about 3% today over rumors that Marina is quickly losing steam in tracking polls.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa losing 1% right now. Petrobras' main stock is falling 3%. There's tension as it now looks like Marina will be surpassed by Dilma in a runoff in tonight's IBOPE. It's also believed that Aecio has bridged the difference between them further (probably around 6-8% now). Since Aecio is weaker in a runoff than Marina, the market gets even more scared and falls even more.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa is sliding about 3% today over rumors that Marina is quickly losing steam in tracking polls.

Any chance of Aecio recovering and making it into a runoff?

Yes if Marina starts to dehydrate quickly, something we'll learn this week. I consider this scenario unlikely, but Aecio is a veteran politician with strong campaigning skills. He's also benefiting from Dilma's blitzkrieg against Marina. If I had to bet, Marina will make it to the runoff about 5% ahead of Aecio in valid votes.

This kind of crash Marina may experience has happened in big municipal and gubernatorial elections before (for example, Celso Russomano's failed run for Mayor of São Paulo in 2012 and Francisco Rossi's big crash all the way back in 1998), but never before in a presidential election (at least since redemocratization). The closest thing to this was in 2002 when Ciro Gomes plummeted in polls right after the TV campaign started. Curiously, in both scenarios I mentioned before there was a strong candidate who was having big trouble to gain traction (Fernando Haddad and Mario Covas), and both times the candidate went on to make it to the runoff by the skin of the teeth and then went on to win the election in a big comeback charge. Both of them benefited from a rival with high rejection rates (José Serra and Paulo Maluf, respectively). Since Dilma has a high rejection rate, it's not hard to understand why Aecio still believes he can win this one.

[Paleobrazilian]

New IBOPE numbers are out. Dilma gains slightly from Marina and they're now rigorously tied in a runoff. Aeciomentum is dead. If Datafolha confirms those numbers later this week, I'll be surprised if the PSDB doesn't pull the plug on Aecio's campaign. Marina has even embraced Geraldo Alckmin's campaign over the last few days. Aecio will be forced to admit defeat. Perhaps in 2022 or 2026 he'll be luckier.

I don't think Marina loses more unless she makes a very big blunder. This runoff will go neck and neck to the wire. October 26th will be a very nervous day and it may come down to less than a million votes. Buckle up, this is going to be thrilling.

[Paleobrazilian]

With less than 2 weeks to go, IBOPE is also polling important state runs. Today they released São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais and Pernambuco.

São Paulo - Governor:

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) – 49%
Paulo Skaf (PMDB) – 17%
Alexandre Padilha (PT) – 8%
Laércio Benko (PHS) – 1%
Others - 2%
Null: 12%
Undecided: 11%

About Alckmin I think I've already said plenty. With those numbers he's now with over 63% of the valid votes, a gigantic number. This is a nightmare for the PT. Padilha is a hugely flawed candidate and rejection of the PT in São Paulo is sky-high. I'll wait until the election day to talk more about the implications of this race, that could be pretty big.

São Paulo - Senator:

José Serra (PSDB) - 34%
Eduardo Suplicy (PT) - 25%
Gilberto Kassab (PSD) - 5%
Ana Luiza (PSTU) - 2%
Marlene Campos Machado (PTB) - 1%
Kaka Wera (PV) - 1%
Others - less than 1%
Null - 13%
Undecided - 17%

This one is not over as there's a big number of undecideds, but Serra actually increased his advantage this time. While voters are probably tired of him in Executive, they seem to be kind with the idea of him as a legislator. Plus, with Alckmin's coattails, momentum is on his side. Suplicy had never faced such a strong candidate, and perhaps the big rejection to the PT locally is also hurting him. As for Kassab, it's not like if he's trying too much. He's a very good friend of Serra

Rio de Janeiro - Governor:

Luiz Fernando Pezão (PMDB) - 29%
Anthony Garotinho (PR) – 26%
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) - 17%
Lindberg Farias (PT) – 8%
Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) – 2%
Dayse Oliveira (PSTU) – 1%
Ney Nunes (PCB)  - 0%
Null –  10%
Undecided -  7%

Runoff: Pezão 43% x Garotinho 33%

This race is quicky moving into Pezão's hands. Garotinho has a solid tally of votes on his home city of Campos and on smaller cities, but his rejection on Rio's metro area is probably too big by now. Crivella has probably picked and Farias is yet another big disappointment for the PT. The moment is entirely on Pezão's hands now and he's probably not losing this one unless he makes a big mistake or unless Garotinho falls more and puts Crivella back in the game. I believe Bernardinho and Ellen Gracie (both from PSDB) now regret not running, in a scenario where the four main candidates suffer with lousy approval ratings they could well have been competitive.

Rio de Janeiro - Senator:

Romário (PSB) – 44%
Cesar Maia (DEM) – 21%
Eduardo Serra (PCB) – 2%
Carlos Lupi (PDT) – 2%
Liliam Sá (Pros) - 2%
Others - 2%
Null – 15%
Undecided – 11%

Better known as Brazil's star back in the 1994 World Cup, Romário has become a popular Congressman and is about to make it to the Senate in convincing fashion. Romário has a very, very bright political future - presidential, perhaps.

As for Cesar Maia, well... His time has come and gone.

Minas Gerais - Governor:

Fernando Pimentel (PT) – 44%
Pimenta da Veiga (PSDB) – 25%
Tarcísio Delgado (PSB) – 4%
Fidélis (PSOL) – 1%
Eduardo Ferreira (PSDC) – 1%
Professor Túlio Lopes (PCB) – 1%
Cleide Donária (PCO) – 1%
Null: 9%
Undecided: 14%

This one is REALLY hurting Aecio Neves. He chose a weak candidate to run as the PSDB name here and he's about to lose this mansion the PSDB held for 16 of the last 20 years, including the last 12. The PSDB will be pissed if Pimenta da Veiga indeed loses by such a large margin without even forcing a runoff, and this makes Aecio even weaker within his party. Meanwhile, Pimentel solidifies his name as a rising star within the PT and will probably be the only candidate of the PT to win a relevant state government. More on this later.

Minas Gerais - Senator:

Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) - 47%
Josué Alencar (PMDB) - 20%
Margarida (PSB) - 1%
Tarcísio (PSDC) - 1%
Edilson Nascimento (PTdoB) - 1%
Geraldo Batata (PSTU) - 1%
Graça (PCO) - 1%
Pablo Lima (PCB) - 1%
Null - 11%
Undecided - 17%

Antonio Anastasia was a popular governor who followed Aecio's footprints pretty well. It's no surprise that he's running so strong. More on this later as well.

Pernambuco - Governor:

Paulo Câmara (PSB): 39%
Armando Monteiro (PTB): 35%
Others: Less than 1%
Null: 10%
Undecided: 15%

A down to the wire race. Câmara was Eduardo Campos' candidate. Since Campos was a hugely popular governor of Pernambuco, it's no suprise that he's doing well. But Monteiro is the candidate of Dilma and she's also popular in Pernambuco. I feel Câmara is the favorite but this will be a tight one.

Pernambuco:

João Paulo (PT) - 34%
Fernando Bezerra Coelho (PSB) - 28%
Simone Fontana (PSTU) - 2%
Albanise Pires (PSOL) - 1%
Oxis (PCB) - 1%
Null - 14%
Undecided - 21%

João Paulo was a popular Mayor of Recife so it's not surprising that he's ahead. Bezerra Coelho was the candidate of Eduardo Campos. This one will be tight as well. There are still many undecideds.

[Paleobrazilian]

Exactly. Under Brazilian law, you're forced to resign from Executive office 6 months before the election if you want to run for some other public office (this rule doesn't apply if you're running for reelection or if you're a legislator). Thus, Aecio Neves resigned and Anastasia took office. This law has tons of critics but I don't see it being changed for now.

[Paleobrazilian]

To Brazilian posters: If Marina did win, how would you rate her possibility of actually implementing environmentalist policies?
How green is she these days. Is the environment still a priority for her?

Marina Silva is not focusing her campaign on environment. She is in a battle against Aécio Neves for the right-wing votes. Environment is not a very popular issue among the kind of voter she is trying to get.

However, of course her program mentions environment. She pretends to create a "Brazilian Market of carbono emission".

This text explains the diferences between Marina's and Dilma's views on environment. It was published in a pro-Dilma site. It is in Portuguese.

http://www.cartamaior.com.br/?%2FEditoria%2FMeio-Ambiente%2FCupula-do-Clima-o-desencontro-entre-Dilma-e-Marina%2F3%2F31857

Well, I know she is going for the right wing vote, which was the background for my question. I am interested in 1) your evaluation of whether she still cares about those issues 2) if so, what is her chance of implementing anyhing "green" with the kind of congress she is likely to get?

My humble opinion: No and no.

[Paleobrazilian]

Bovespa climbing over 2,5% today. Petrobras' stock skyrocketing 6%. Itaú gaining 4,4%. I think Marina will regain traction on tonight's Datafolha.

[Paleobrazilian]

Dilma takes a 4 point lead in the runoff. Over 11 thousand voters polled, excellent sample. Here go the details:



Not only Dilma regains ground, she also lowers her rejection ratings. This + many Aecio voters that now say they'll nullify their votes on the runoff = tight Dilma win. If Marina loses due to Aecio voters that refused to vote for Marina, Aecio will be hated forever by many in the PSDB and ally parties (in desperation, Aecio has been attacking Marina quite strongly).

[Paleobrazilian]

If Aecio indeed comes third, not making into a runoff, it would be the first time PSDB did not take one of two first places in presidential election. Could that, combined with troubles in his home state (gubernatorial race) really damage his future chances? Though, again, Brazilian politics is known for comebacks.

(Sorry if I'm asking dumb questions)

With recent poll numbers and the general mood, I think I can describe Aecio's situation this way (long post):

Aecio has been showing weakness ever since he took office as Senator back in 2011. Here in Brazil, being in the Executive is WAY more important than being in the Legislative, not only because who's in the Executive has the whole machine basically on his hand under Brazil's Constitution, but also because Congress in Brazil has appalling approval ratings. In 2012, Aecio failed to elect Mayors in many important cities of Minas Gerais (like Uberaba, Uberlândia and all cities of the Vale do Aço metropolitan area). This, plus Aecio's growing weakness, helps explaining the weakness of PSDB's candidate in Minas Gerais.

The second fact that has to be taken in account is that, for many PSDBists (affectionately called toucans), Aecio betrayed Alckmin's presidential campaign in 2006 and Serra's presidential campaign in 2010. It's pretty much well known that both times Aecio kindly accepted the Lula-Aecio and Dilma-Anastasia campaigns ran by local leaders tied to Aecio. In 2006, Aecio barely made a move for Alckmin, focusing on his own reelection campaign, as he knew this would be the best way to give him an opening to run for president in 2010. In 2010, after being defeated by Serra on the run to be the PSDB's candidate, Aecio also left Serra for dead, instead focused on electing Anastasia and consolidating his name as the consensus candidate of his party for 2014.

Of course, I do believe Aecio should have been PSDB's candidate back in 2010. He was young, fresh, the incumbent two term governor of a very important state with sky-high approval ratings, while Serra looked old and tired through the entire campaign. But it's obvious that Aecio shouldn't have put his own interests before the ones of his party. This pretty much killed him within the PSDB and its allies, and its unsurprising, though, that many within the party are secretly smiling when they see Aecio failing dismally. This is happening not only in São Paulo, but pretty much in all the PSDB state cells around the country. It's scary that the only strong gubernatorial candidate from an important state to fully embrace Aecio's campaign (other than Pimenta da Veiga, of course) is Ana Amélia Lemos (PP-RS), who's from a party that endorses Dilma nationally.

As for the consequences of this, I feel they're pretty big:

First, I think Aecio is way too damaged to be the PSDB's presidential candidate in 2018. Not only he showed weakness (even inside his own turf), he also totally failed to unify his party around him, due to his past and the own ambitions of party leaders. He even tried to bring former PSDB leaders (including FHC) to the spotlight to try to solidify the support he should have gotten from the base, but failed in epic fashion. The party has shifted strongly to the leaders it elected in 2010 (Alckmin, Beto Richa, Simão Jatene, Marconi Perillo, Aloysio Nunes, even Anastasia who was seen as a puppet of Aecio at first glance), and while FHC, Arminio Fraga and etc are still pretty much heroes within the party, they're not the unifying figures they used to be anymore.

Second, it's crucial to understand the shift I mentioned above. When the PSDB was created back in 1988, it was supposed to be a "new left" political party, Brazil's own "new Labour". It's most prominent members in the beginning were well known left wing thinkers such as FHC, José Serra, José Aníbal, etc. As any "new left" group, they were pretty much a center-left party with highly pragmatical policies. The best example is the famous "infusion of capitalism" speech given by the great Mario Covas back in 1989, when he mentioned the urging need of more liberalism allied to social policies. That was pretty much the PSDB you had until 2002.

When the PT took over the federal government, it pretty much took over the center-left sweet spot the PSDB and it's older leaders occupied (perhaps a tad to the left than the PSDB used to be). Some will say the PSDB was a right wing party back then, I strongly reject this notion but I guess this depends on what one consider as left or right. Anyway, it's pretty clear PSDB members started to shift slowly to the right after 2002, slowly embracing economic liberalism less shyly and some conservative social policies (specially on law enforcement matters). This trend was accelerated in 2010 and 2012, when many toucans and close allies were elected under center-right platforms and policies, including Alckmin, Beto Richa, Aloysio Nunes, ACM Neto, etc. Alckmin is running a decidely center-right campaign this year (specially on law enforcement matters, where he's adopting a strong law and order speech) that's proving to be very successful.

All that means that this may end up being a realigning election for the PSDB, with the party embracing a new center-right spot more decisively. Many old leaders feel unwell with this change, but there's not much left for them to do now. Aecio has been stuck between the old, center-left PSDB and the new, center-right PSDB. He's been trying to pander more to right wing voters talking about liberal policies and a law and order speech. But not only he's being hurt by right wing tactical voting for Marina, he also doesn't sound convincing when using a right wing speech, even though he implemented policies similar to those when he was Governor of Minas Gerais. This speech flows way more naturally with Geraldo Alckmin, for example. That's another reason why I think Aecio is gone as a relevant PSDB name for now, and possibly for good.

Third, 2018 is shaping up to be the first time in 20 years when there will be no bad blood about the PSDB nominee for the presidential race. In 2002, Serra was chosen because he was a good friend of FHC and well known nationally, but a more pragmatic faction of the party preferred Ceara's two term incumbent governor Tasso Jereissati. In 2006, Serra battled until the end to be the nominee, but in the end Alckmin won the nomination. Then after, both Serra and Aecio threw him under the bus. In 2010, Serra and Aecio had a bloddy battle for the nomination, and Aecio pretty much ignored the interest of his party after Serra was chosen.  This year Aecio was not seriously challenged, but is struggling with the bad blood left from 2006 and 2010.

As for 2018, some say Serra is still (unbelievably) interested, but I simply don't see him as a serious challenger for Alckmin. Serra looks older than ever and will be 76 by election day 2018, simply too old to be seriously considered. Not to mention that Serra represents the old PSDB, which, as I said, is on the road to extinction. Alckmin has already taken over the chairmanship of São Paulo's PSDB and the national PSDB shouldn't be a hard challenge for him now. Plus, if the current scenario stays put (and today's Datafolha confirmed Tuesday's IBOPE), Alckmin is poised to win over 60% of the valid votes in a 1st round election, an amazing result for the PSDB. Hell, he's on track to win ALL the 653 cities of São Paulo with Padilha's awful performance. Only a disaster will take the nomination away from him, and with the solidification of the move to the right and Aecio's loss of strength, you can be certain he'll be the 1st PSDB candidate after FHC's reelection campaign to rally the entire base around him.

Finally, one last thing. Don't rule out a party switch for Aecio. He's a political predator and perhaps a party like the PTB or even the PMDB will want a candidate for the presidency in 2018. Aecio would be perfect for them. He considered this idea around 2009, let's not forget.

After October 26th it'll be important to evaluate all this again. Some things may change, but I think the scenario is pretty much the one described above.