Vatican City 2013 papal election

[Paleobrazilian]

Latest rumours from here: The main reason for Benedict's retreat was a recent internal review of  the Vatican Bank's operations. The Bank has already for some time been under EU pressure to upgrade transparency to EU standards, otherwise the Bank may be banned from all financial operations on EU territory. Talk is about the bank having financed the mafia and terrorists. Insiders report that a major clean-up will be required, which Benedict felt too old to carry through. One of Benedict's last actions in office, however, has been sending Bertone's right hand, and the Bank's controller inside the Curia, as papal nuntius to Bogota. The Bank's situation was on the agenda of yesterdays pre-conclave Cardinals meeting.

If the issue is as serious as it appears, that should not bode too well for any Italian candidate. Otherwise, Oullet and O'Malley are now also getting mentioned by the German press, alongside with Scola, Scherer and Turkson.  Does any of them (or any other papable Cardinal) happen to have a banking background?

Scherer is a member of the Vatican Bank supervisory committee and a member of the Vatican's financial committee...

[Paleobrazilian]

This is how the Habemus Papam will be delivered, probably by the Protodeacon:

Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum:
Habemus Papam!
Eminentissimum ac reverendissimum Dominum,
Dominum [First Name] Sanctæ Romanæ Ecclesiæ Cardinalem [Last Name],
Qui sibi nomen imposuit [Papal Name].

The First Name is spoken in Latin, under the accusative case. Thus, for exemple, if a Cardinal named Peter is elected, the Protodeacon will say "Dominum Petrum", I guess.

The Last Name will be spoken normally, so this is where we'll know for sure who the new Pope is.

The Papal Name chosen will be spoken in Latin, under the genitive case. If the new Pope takes the same name of the old Pope (that would be Benedict XVII), the Protodeacon doesn't speak the number.

Cardinal Jean-Louis Tauran (picture below) is the Protodeacon. If he doesn't emerge from the balcony to deliver the speech, you'll know he's the new Pope.

[Paleobrazilian]

Extra omnes can't come soon enough.

Expected more from the Latin of those guys!

[Paleobrazilian]

LOL, Cardinal Braz de Aviz forgot he should say his first name in Latin

[Paleobrazilian]

The first black smoke could emerge rather quickly from the Sistine Chapel. Italian Vaticanists say Scola may get 50 votes off the bat and he's currently at 5/2 at Paddy Power. I still think he'll fail to consolidate 2/3 of the votes, but I may be missing something here.

[Paleobrazilian]

If they keep the smoke as black as it was today, there'll be no confusion this time out when the white smoke comes out.

[Paleobrazilian]

The black smoke came out today 20 minutes earlier than in 2005.

Tomorrow we should have more black smoke around 11 AM. I'll try to wake up early, just in case

[Paleobrazilian]

I wouldn't expect the conclave to go beyond Friday, though. That would project a huge sign of division, something the RCC has to avoid. If this goes beyond Friday, then things turned ugly.

I still think the decision will be made tomorrow, as long conclaves have basically disappeared over the last 100 years. 8 ballots is still my prediction.

[Paleobrazilian]

This morning the smoke came out 20 minutes before schedule once again, so around 5:40 PM GMT we could have some smoke.

Earlier than that... I doubt, but who knows?

[Paleobrazilian]

Since there was no smoke by now, it's safe to say there was no decision on the 4th ballot.

[Paleobrazilian]

The 5th ballot really seemed to take an eternity, here's why. As a Catholic, such an exciting moment for me, no matter who wins.

[Paleobrazilian]

The balcony door is still closed I believe. The new Pope must be figuring out his new clothes.

[Paleobrazilian]

Regarding clothes and shoes:

Do they have all sizes of shoes and clothes, because the cardinals are all different.

They have 3 sizes in store, but final hour adjustments may be needed.

[Paleobrazilian]

The Swiss Guard is arriving. Few minutes to go now.

[Paleobrazilian]

The name is a huge shock. Shows the message of huge humilty. He's also known as a fighter for social justice. IMO, a very intriguing and exciting pick.

[Paleobrazilian]

His choice reminds me A LOT of John XXIII. Likely a short but hugely important papacy is coming up. I will not be surprised if he calls a Council Vatican III within the next 2 years.

[Paleobrazilian]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whvoFn-rLU4

The announcement of "Habemus Papam" was more interesting in 2005; today's announcement failed to meet the "chill up your spine" criteria I have for most important events.

That was the only big negative tonight, lol. Tauran seemed to be in pain or something like that, he was moving his head on that awkward way, and really ran rhrough the speech, forgeting to let a bit of time for the people there to shout and rejoice.

Now talking about the pick...

1- The Vaticanists will be kicking themselves once again for totally missing Bergoglio. In 2005 he was a footnote, and went on to be the strongest alternative to Ratzinger. It is said that he asked his colleagues to stop voting for him, but maybe he just did that to allow a quick resolution for the conclave, as Benedict XVI's election was basically inevitable. This time, he was said to be a kingmaker, but in the end he became the king himself...

2 While most Vaticanists missed Bergoglio, one part-time Vaticanist, part-time political pundit from Brazil called Geraon Camarotti called it right. He said the Brazililian Cardinals not named Scherer would NOT vote for Scherer - Braz de Aviz and Damasceno specially disliked him. They wanted a "Latin-american alternative" to Scherer, and they were not alone. According to Camarotti, the candidacy of Bergoglio was built by Cardinal Maradiaga, a papabile himself. In the end the kingmaker became the Pope, and the papabile was the kingmaker.

3- I believe the winning coalition was composed by Latin-american Cardinals first, who probably united with African and Asian Cardinals. That would have delivered some 30-40 votes to Francis off the bat. From then on, he must have gained support from the American delegation at first, as they saw the opening for a Pan-american Pope. Then the less conservative faction of the Curia and from the European Cardinals (led by Schönborn and probably Bertone) stepped in and put him over the top.

4- The choice of "Francis" was a shock, as many felt the name of St. Francis of Assissi was "too holly" to be brought back by a Pope. But it definitely fits him, as he fits the legacy of St. Francis of Assissi and of St. Francis Xavier quite well.

5- He's not only the first jesuit Pope ever, he's also the first Pope from a religious order in three centuries. That is something that has to be noted.

6- His Pontificate will probably not be that long, and he definitely knows that. He seems to be extremely humble, to a point that may bother some Cardinals and curialists. But he does seem to be the kind of Pope that could start big changes, like John XXIII. The fact that he prayed Lord's Prayer and Ave Maria with the pilgrims in Italian before praying Urbi et Orbi tells a lot. The fact that he stood in silence to let the Catholics pray for him was very telling as well.

7- I'm predicting a John XXIII-styled papacy. Quite short (it'd be a blessing if he goes strong beyond 10 years), but bringing lots of change. Maybe going totally bold and calling Council Vatican III, maybe doing what should have done long ago, implementing collegiality as recomended by Council Vatican II - empowering the College of Cardinals and the Curia to decide some matters that today are left exclusively to the Pope; giving Bishops and Archbishops more power in their territorry. He could also diminish the Curia.

9- It'll be important to see how many curialists will be brought back to their old jobs by Pope Francis - many changes would signal the need for a big cleanup. Also important will be his first Cardinal-creating consistory, which will be very telling. He'll probably create some 15 new Cardinals around early-mid 2014, and I expect him to create many Cardinals from the Third World, reducing the weight of the European and specially of the Italian delegation. I also feel less second-tier curialists will become Cardinals (something Benedict XVI used to do).

10- I'm loving Pope Francis. I think he'll do a great job. He has my prayers.

[Paleobrazilian]

Many conservative catholics in Brazil are pissed with Francis, not because he's not against abortion, gay marriage, etc (he is and will always be against, obviously). The thing about Francis is that he's reportedly a non-traditionalist. I heard he refused to allow priests from his archdiocesis to celebrate the Tridentine Mass, for example.

[Paleobrazilian]

Has anyone seen any leaks yet of how the early rounds of balloting went down?

This may take a few months.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to the earliest leaks, Cardinal Bergoglio was the leading candidate in the whole conclave.

[Paleobrazilian]

2 While most Vaticanists missed Bergoglio, one part-time Vaticanist, part-time political pundit from Brazil called Geraon Camarotti called it right. He said the Brazililian Cardinals not named Scherer would NOT vote for Scherer - Braz de Aviz and Damasceno specially disliked him. They wanted a "Latin-american alternative" to Scherer, and they were not alone. According to Camarotti, the candidacy of Bergoglio was built by Cardinal Maradiaga, a papabile himself. In the end the kingmaker became the Pope, and the papabile was the kingmaker.

What were the major drawbacks wih Scherer which made him so unpalatable to the other Brazilian Cardinals?

The fact that he strongly opposes Liberation Theology may be the most important thing. While Latin-american Cardinals are not followers of the Liberation Theology (John Paul II and Benedict XVI would never create a Liberation Theology follower a Cardinal ), most of them actually see it warmly, as they are usually inclined to put emphasis on social justice. Thus, they probably felt Scherer was not the best choice to represent the feelings and the needs of the Latin-american Catholic Church.

Plus, while Scherer delivers a good message, he's not a great messenger. He's a good twitter, but far from a great, charismatic speaker.

Finally, the fact that he was the candidate of many in the Curia probably hurt him. Bergoglio used the right approach, first locked the support from Latin-americans, Africans and Asians, and then, in the middle of the conclave, probably attracted the moderate factions of the Curia and of European residential Cardinals. Getting the support of Bertone before the conclave was probably a minus, getting the support of Bertone during the conclave would be a huge plus.

[Paleobrazilian]

On the other hand, looking at Franciscus,  I wonder how much of institutional reform he will be able and willing to push through. That he was elected so quickly makes me suspect that the status quo faction decided to better give in to the "non-Europeans" than to risk that a real reformer gets elected.  It also sets a nice precedent for Scola - contender gives in, a Pope in his late 70s is elected, dies (or steps down) after a few years, and then it is that contender's turn.

This is a possibility. But I also think this might really be a John XXIII scenario. Many say the 78 year old Cardinal Roncali was elected back in 1958 to start laying out the ground for the Archbishop of Milan, Giovanni Montini, who wasn't even a Cardinal when he was elected. As we know, Montini was created Cardinal just 2 months after John XXIII was elected, and 5 years later he was elected Pope and became Paul VI. By then, John XXIII had already started Council Vatican II, the main legacy of both Popes.

[Paleobrazilian]

Üner-conservative groups like the Society of St. Pius X are already going nut with Francis.

[Paleobrazilian]

While there's still a lot from the conclave to leak, rumours say Pope Francis (then Cardinal Bergoglio) began the conclave with an unexpectedly high tally of votes, probably thanks to the "Third World coalition", which put him at #3 at that moment. Scola probably started with the lead, but his total was quite lackluster. Right behind him was Ouellet. Scherer, meanwhile, probably never gained traction.

Scola's "candidacy" panned Wednesday morning, as his voting totals stalled and then crashed. Meanwhile, Bergoglio and Ouellet continued gaining.

During lunch that day, it's been reported that Ouellet endorsed Bergoglio. It's also been said that Bertone and Re (who represented Sodano at the conclave) also endorsed Bergoglio that moment. Sodano really liked Bergoglio during the sede vacante, as he never really tried to gain the spotlight. Bertone, meanwhile, saw the opportunity to slap the face of Scola and keep power under the new regime. After the 4th ballot, Bergoglio probably came close, and then, instead of blocking him, most Cardinals decided to show unit and backed him, putting him way over the necessary 77 votes.

[Paleobrazilian]

Being endorsed by Bertone is certainly not a good sign... However, the fact that his major opponents were Scola and Ouellet are still huge reasons to be happy about his election.

I think I heard before the conclave that Scola and Bertone have a rivalry such that, whoever the anti-Scola was going to be, he was probably going to get endorsed by Bertone at some point. I'm waiting to see if Francis retains Bertone in his capacity as Cardinal Secretary of State.

They're really huge rivals.

I think the next SoS will be Cardinal Filoni, who'd be an excellent pick. Sandri would be cool, but Francis won't take Francis 2.0 I believe. Hummes is probably too old.