Vatican City 2013 papal election

[Paleobrazilian]

Here's what I personally expect:

1- No older than 70 years old.
2- Someone who has been a cardinal for at least 2 years (I don't think someone made cardinal in the 2012 consistories will be elected).
3- Someone who has not spent the last few days/weeks campaigning.
4- Since a candidate will need 2/3 of the votes to be elected, compromise WILL be needed. Italians will be looking for a Italian Pope, but I think they'll be forced to compromise on that, as Third World candidates could block anyone they don't really like.

Thus, here are the ones I'd keep an eye on:

From the Curia:

Marc Ouellet (Canada) - Holds one of the most important positions at the Curia, and thanks to him some of those in the conclave became bishops back in the past. Would be a very intriguing choice, but many say he's not a great speaker.
Leonardo Sandri (Argentina) - Holds an important position at the Curia, around 70, from a strongly Catholic South-American country.
Peter Turkson (Ghana) - I don't expect him to be elected, as he's been talking too much about being available for the job. Maybe he really doesn't want to be the next Pope. You never know, though.
Raymond Leo Burke (USA) - This might surprise some, but I see him as a potential choice - a 64-year old cardinal who's responsible for the "Supreme Court" of the Vatican.
Jean-Louis Tauran (France) - A darkhorse. He's been a cardinal for almost a decade, and is currently the Cardinal Protodeacon - thus, if not elected, he'll deliver the Habemus Papam speech.
Antonio Cañizares Llovera (Spain) - He's one of those I see as a potential compromise candidate. Called "Little Ratzinger" for his views.

Archbishops:

Christoph Schönborn (Austria) - Some might see him as "too liberal", a strong candidate otherwise.
Odilo Scherer (Brazil) - Young, runs one of the largest archdioceses in the World (São Paulo), and comes from the country with the biggest number of Catholics in the planet.
Óscar A. R. Maradiaga (Honduras) - Strongly connected to Third World causes, has been the President of Caritas Internationalis, and the Vatican's spokesperson within the IMF and the World Bank.
Peter Erdo (Hungary) - I see him as a very strong compromise candidate. A few years ago, he was mentioned a lot as a candidate, but the hype around him has diminished a little bit. He's just 60, and comes from a country that remains mostly Catholic despite the communist regime. He's also the President of Europe's Bishop Conference, and has avoided gaffes through his career so far. Basically, some circumstances remind a lot those present when John Paul II was elected.
Angelo Scola (Italy) - Many see him as the safe choice. Just over 70, I expect him to get a few votes from his Italian peers in the 1st two ballots, then steadily decline as the cardinals look for a compromise candidate.
Crescenzio Sepe (Italy) - Could be the compromise candidate from Italy.
Angelo Bagnasco (Italy) - Like Sepe, could emerge as a compromise candidate over Scola.
Norberto Rivera Carrera (Mexico) - Reminds Cardinal Maradiaga a lot. He comes from a Catholic powerhouse and hasn't been shy talking about Mexican politics.
Kurt Koch (Switzerland) - A darkhorse.

[Paleobrazilian]

The buzz about "Petrus Romanus" will go bigger and bigger now with all this mud flying around.

[Paleobrazilian]

Basically all cardinal are already in Rome by now. Benedict XVI will be preaching for the last time as the Bishop of Rome tomorrow. Informal cardinal meetings must have already begun by now, and from Thursday on, expect some intense action as the cardinals will have the chance to meet officially, listen to speaks, etc.

This conclave will be very interesting. The fact that there's no big favorite makes me believe, and the conclave rules set by Benedict XVI in 2007, could give us a quite long conclave (+10 ballots and a mandatory day of rest and prayer). However, the fact that the cardinals had a month to prepare for this moment and the ongoing meetings may help creating some consensus before the conclave (thus, a new Pope could be elected with 6-8 ballots).

The date of the conclave will probably be brought forward to around March 5th, but I think the College of Cardinals will give themselves some time to allow the groups of power to bring their candidates and start compromise negotiations.

Interesting times ahead, gotta love it.

[Paleobrazilian]

Azinze for three of four years, and then a young Italian, or straight to the young Italian?

I think the idea of a latin american pope is possible, but north american unlikely.

Arinze is over 80 years old, so he cannot vote and is basically unelectable.

If they're looking for a "transitional Pope" yet agan, this time from a Third World country, Cardinals Hummes (Brazil) and Bergoglio (Argentina) would be the strongest possibilities, IMO.

But keep in mind that such a scenario is hugely unlikely. Also remember that Bergoglio asked his fellow cardinals to stop voting for him during the 2005 Conclave, according to apocryphal vote counts leaked over the last years.

My money is still on a 15-20 papacy to come. Still, it's wide open for now. I can see some 10 ways this might play out...

[Paleobrazilian]

Pope Benedict XVI has now officially resigned. The sede vacante has started.

The name of Gianfranco Ravasi has been gaining a lot of steam over the last few days, as he's reportedly the hand-picked candidate of Cardinal Bertone. Ravasi represents the "moderate" faction of the Italian clergy, and is seen as the strongest theologian in the conclave (like Benedict XVI in 2005). He is the Prefect of the Council for Culture, which gained importance during Benedict's term. He's also a tweeting cardinal with an intriguing number of followers. Keep in mind, though, that no Cardinal-Deacon has been elected Pope over the last 400 years. Plus, Ravasi is a career "bureaucrat" - he's never held a position as archbishop, and that may be a minus for him.

His main rival, for now, is Cardinal Scola, who's been the "weak favorite" for now - he represents the mainstream conservatives in the Italian Church, and is connected to Berlusconi's political movement. He's the Archbishop of Milan, and has solid theological background as well, holding opinions that match those of Benedict XVI. He's probably the favorite of Cardinal Sodano (the non-voting Dean of the College of Cardinals), and maybe of the Pope Emeritus as well (even though Benedict XVI recently sent a letter to Ravasi praising his job, what some saw as a disguised endorsement).

Oddly, Ravasi wanted Scola's job back in 2010, and asked the job to Cardinal Bertone. However, Benedict XVI was set on Scola for that Archdiocese, so Bertone offered Ravasi the next best thing: a promotion to Prefect of the Council for Culture, and his creation as a Cardinal. Ravasi took the offer.

I feel this shaping up to something similar as the October 1978 conclave (at least according to the leaked rumors). It had a strong conservative Italian (Cardinal Siri) and a strong "moderate-liberal" Italian (Cardinal Benelli) facing off. Benelli started strongly, with support from many Cardinals from Third World countries, but not many votes from Europeans and conservative Italians. Halfway through the conclave, Benelli came just a few votes short of being elected, but in the deciding moment, the "conservative coalition" decided they'd not have Benelli as their Pope. This forced the Cardinals to compromise, and the power brokers suggested a long shot Polish cardinal, who fastly gained traction, being elected on the 8th ballot.

[Paleobrazilian]

That's EXACTLY what I've been thinking. Erdo has been my sleeper pick to win ever since this cycle begun. There are many circunstances that envolve him that remind those present when Cardinal Wojtyla became Pope John Paul II...

1- Both from Eastern Bloc countries that remained Catholic despite the communist regime.
2- Both were created Cardinals at a very young age, and despite being in the College of Cardinals for a decade before the conclave, were still among the youngest in the election.
3- 2 Cardinals with solid theological background.
4- Both seen as conservatives that can get along with most factions inside the Church.
5- Both were seen as rising stars a few years before elected, but lost the spotlight right before the conclave, in the middle of a battle between factions of the Italian Church.

Erdo is probably a bit more conservative than Wojtyla (he's an honorary doctor at an Opus Dei University), and I don't think he's got the "on-stage" talent John Paul II had. On his side, he's the President of the European Bishop's Confederation, so everyone knows him and the huge mass of European voters would probably be satisfied with him. Also, his Eastern Bloc curriculum might look good among Cardinals from the whole World. I really wouldn't be surprised if the deal breakers come up with his name if the conclave becames deadlocked after the 2nd day.

Another potential compromise candidates I see are Cardinal Scherer (a residential cardinal that goes along very well with the Curia), Cardinal Bagnasco (who's flying under the Bertone-Sodano/Ravasi-Scola battle, quietly building his Third Way status), maybe Cardinal Sandri, maybe even a huge underdog like the Archbishop of Colombo, or Cardinal Pell from Sydney,

[Paleobrazilian]

Scherer's name has been mentionned often and early, which is usually a bad sign. However, in principle it is time for a non-European pope, and Brazil has the largest non-European delegation. What are the rumours on your side of the ocean? To which extent could a Brazilian be able to mobilise support from Spanish-speaking Latin America?

Scherer has been mentioned a few times by the local media, just like João Braz de Aviz. Scherer is well known and respected here in Brazil as a strong theological leader who's not shy about getting involved with local politics (like when he blasted our Supreme Court judges when they decided that the abortion of anencephalic fetuses was constitutional).  He has shown some cojones over the last few years, specially when he made an unpopular nomination for Dean of São Paulo's Pontifical Catholic University, and stood by it all the way, gaining support and respect from the Roman Curia.

He's also more conservative than most Brazilian bishops, as he's strongly opposed to the Liberation Theology that influences most of them - probably for this reason, he also recently lost the election to the presidency of Brazil's bishop conference to Cardinal Damasceno, the more liberal Archbishop of Aparecida. Still, he's modern enough to be seen usually taking the subway to go to work, walking around with his iPhone that he uses to tweet and facebook - he's got a fairly big number of followers on both social networks. All of this may make him appealing to the conclave voters: someone from South America who's lead one of the biggest Archdioceses in the World, who rejects the preachings of the left-wing Liberation Theology in favor of more traditional preachings, who's connected to Internet 2.0, who speaks a few idioms (including fluent Italian, I believe), and who's also got German ancestry.

Many bishops in Brazil seem to want Ravasi for Pope - it's been rumored that Damasceno and Magela will be voting for him. However, it's been said that Scherer, Hummes and Braz de Aviz will be voting Scola - who's well seen in the more conservative groups of our Church.

[Paleobrazilian]

If Pell gets it, I don't know if I'd be proud or terrified

Pell is probably the longest of the longshots being mentioned - specially after he discreetly criticized the Pope Emeritus yesterday for resigning. There are at least 10 candidates with bigger chances if the Scola-Ravasi deadlock indeed happens, but you never know.

[Paleobrazilian]

So, basically,
if it's a short conclave it's either Ravasi or Scola.
But if it's a long one there's also Scherer, Bagnasco, Sandri, and Erdo, right?

Probably. The general congregations starting Monday will be decisive to lock the front-runner status of those.

[Paleobrazilian]

Maybe if a superstar emerges during the general congregation, some sort of consensus could be reached earlier - like when Cardinal Luciani (John Paul I) emerged in August 1978, delaying the Siri-Benelly showdown by 2 months. Of course, that time Benelli decided to endorse Luciani, and only made a serious pitch for the Papacy after John Paul I passed. This time, all major Italian candidates and dealbrakers seem to have way to many interests and ambitions to be willing to compromise early on. And I do think some non-Europeans will take a hard stance.

8-9 ballots seems to be a good prediction right now.

[Paleobrazilian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/the-vatican/detail/articolo/conclave-22818/

[Paleobrazilian]

12 electors missed the general congregation that happened this morning. It's unlikely that they'll set a date before everyone voting arrives.

John L. Allen Jr. has been running a great series on the Papabili, which you can find here:

http://ncronline.org/blogs/ncr-today/read-all-john-allens-papabile-day-stories

[Paleobrazilian]

The Sistine Chapel has already been closed and will be scanned over the next few days. The last five electors will probably arrive tonight. This way, the conclave date could be set by Thursday.

There'll be no general congregations this afternoon, nor tomorrow afternoon. This will allow the cardinals to hold discussions a bit farther from the public eye (the general congregations are secretive, but there's always media frenzy around).

[Paleobrazilian]

John L. Allen Jr. has been running a great series on the Papabili, which you can find here:

Very interesting. It seems the German delegation is not the only one to look for a strong 'package' (Pope plus Secretary), so much of the congregation discussion may be around putting together the best team in terms of mix of skills, geographical representation, and ideological balance.

According to a Vaticanologist, the cardinals want someone with the theological background of Benedict XVI, the charisma of John Paul II, the political skills of Paul VI and the courage of John XXIII. Tough shoes to fill.

[Paleobrazilian]

The last conclave voter will finally arrive today. The date of the conclave may be fixed when he takes part of the general congregations, what should happen tomorrow. I believe the conclave will begin around March 14th.

It seems that there is some tension ongoing during the general congregations.

[Paleobrazilian]

The last voter has finally arrived, and hopefully the date will be set tomorrow.

According to some, those cardinals deliberately delayed their arrival, to postpone the conclave as much as they could. There was a feeling among those "backbencher cardinals" that hosting the conclave quickly would favour someone handpicked by the Curia. They feel the longer general congregations could help a darkhouse candidate more alligned to them.

[Paleobrazilian]

The date will be set today!

[Paleobrazilian]

According to the National Catholic Reporter, there's no clear consensus as Tuesday approach. We'll probably see black smoke from Tuesday to Thursday, I guess. By Thursday afternoon we might see white smoke.

General congregations will go on until Monday. The Pro Eligendo Pontifice Mass will be celebrated Tuesday morning, and the conclave begins on the afternoon, when the first ballot will probably be held.

[Paleobrazilian]

For the junkies following this as much as me, the black smoke should come out on Tuesday around 5:30-6 PM GMT. From Wednesday on, smoke will come out every day around 11 AM and 6 PM GMT, and if comes at this time it may be black or white, so you'll have to pay close attention. If the smoke comes out at around 9:30-10 AM GMT, or around 4:30-5 PM GMT, then there's a huge chance it's white smoke, because there was only enough time for one ballot, so rush to the front of your TV.

[Paleobrazilian]

I think it'll be Cañizares.

I don't think Little Ratzinger will win this. The mood is for a Pope with political skills, not another theologian. Plus, if they want a Ratzinger-style theologian, Scola, Schönbor, even Ravasi would all be stronger picks.

[Paleobrazilian]

Did someone really say Dolan has "zero" chance? Haha. Someone hasn't been following this that closely...

Yes, he has zero chance.  If he wasn't a US cardinal, he'd have a chance, but being from the US kills any and all chance he has.

Being american is not Dolan's biggest problem. In my opinion, his chances are small because he's been a cardinal for only a year, and because his Italian is not very good. Plus, it's unlikely his colleagues are readdy for such a huge personality as Pope. If Benedict XVI hadn't resigned, I think he'd be the favorite around 2018.

I'll be rooting for him, though.

[Paleobrazilian]

1 day before the conclave, rumours say the campaign of Ravasi has faded, due to his lack of pastoral experience. According to the same rumours, the names of Dolan, Tagle and Erdo have failed to gain traction, and probably won't be considered early on the conclave. Thus, the 3 names now expected to come up strong on the first ballot, tomorrow afternoon, are Scola, Ouellet and Scherer.

[Paleobrazilian]

According to the Vatican Insider, Scola will get 35-40 votes tomorrow, Scherer should get some 25, Ouellet lurking behind. Americans should rally around Dolan and hope he gains traction, O'Malley is the plan B. Bertone may go with a handpicked guy early on, just to show he still has his block under control (La Stampa mention he'll send a sacrificial lamb, Cardinal Coccopalmerio).

I don't wanna get too excited, but Scherer is looking good. He's already the candidate of Sodano and Re, amd Bertone would gladly vote for him to stop Scola. If Scola can't keep the moment from the 1st ballot, he could immeadiately gain traction, and by the 5th ballot or so we could have a yes-or-no on Scherer.

The question on Scherer is whether the "backbenchers" will like him enough. He fits the Curia perfeclty, and that may bother some Cardinals from Africa, Latin America, and the US. He celebrated a very anticipated mass Sunday, I think he handled that well.

If he fails to get this, then Ouellet will be the frontrunner #3. He'd be a strong bet to consolidate 2/3 of the vote.

[Paleobrazilian]

I heard Ouellet got rave reviews for his mass the other day. If the top three really are Ouellet, Scherer, and Scola... Mr. Ouellet looks pretty good.

Also, what are people's thoughts on the new pope's name? I'm liking the ring of Leo or Innocent.

I like the chances of Paul VII or Pius XIII. It would be cool if the new Pope went for something bold, though, as James, maybe bring back a name like Boniface.

[Paleobrazilian]

The Pro Eligendo Pontifice mass will be celebrated tomorrow at 9 AM GMT. The procession to the Sistine Chapel will happen at 3:30 PM GMT.