I don't see Obama losing that much ground in the South; he was whittled down to his base in 2008 in the states that swung R. Unless Obama orders the nuking of Little Rock, I can't see Arkansas going 3:1 for Romney. Remember, black turnout plus the fact that Arkansas whites are more Democratic gives Democrats a solid base of 35% at absolute McGovern level. If Arkansas is >70% Romney (and I don't see why there would be a 20 point swing), New York is probably in his column too.
Those states have been trending to the right such as AR, LA, TN, KY, and WV. Obama only got 39% in 2008 there and it's bound to be less than that. Kerry and Gore got 46% but lost the election. With Obama doing 9 points better than Kerry, and McCain 12 points better than Bush in Arkansas, it looks like it will trend that much more again. I could be wrong though and it'll be more like 60-40.
However, due to blacks and unions, Obama has to hit a floor at some point. Trends don't continue forever.
