Who do you think will win the election?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

History is on Romney's side, but Presidents often get re-elected. Tough call. I'll say Obama wins, but it's close.

One could make the argument, given the state of the economy and other issues, that Obama is a weaker incumbent than George W. Bush was, and if John Kerry, who is probably less inspiring than Mitt Romney can come within 59,300 votes of beating a stronger incumbent than Barack Obama, Romney certainly can.

What is most disheartening to me, is that I have a hunch even if Romney is elected President, he may lose the popular vote, perhaps by a few million votes. (Had Kerry narrowly won Ohio, he still would have come up nearly 3 million votes behind Bush in the PV). Also, the gender and especially racial divide is likely going to be larger than recent elections.

I agree with this assessment. I do believe if Romney is able to frame the argument like Kennedy did in 1960 about getting America moving again we can pull it off.

Kennedy had charisma.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

At this point, although anything can happen, I think Obama has about an 80% chance of winning in November.