How likely is this scenario?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

*Obama wins 285-253 against Romney; some Southern states actually swing to Obama due to a reverse Clinton effect of butthurt Perry supporters, as well as the actual Clinton effect having faded. Still, Romney wins every state in the South except Virginia.

*The real Democratic victory is in Congress, however. Democrats take back the House while gaining seats in Massachusetts, Nevada, and Tennessee, while losing North Dakota.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

As I've said before, Obama will most likely either lose or pick up more EV's. Now that's not saying he'll get 400 or something crazy - he'll get around 369 if he wins (that is, against Romney).

Streaks are worth looking at, but not completely sticking to. Should McCain have won due to the 200-year streak of electing white men to the presidency? Should Obama not have won Arkansas, Missouri, and West Virginia, since no Democrat has won without them?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yeah, it's pretty much a repackaged 1948.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

don't know if you've looked outside, but the economy appears to be headed into a double dip recession...in which case Obama would be extremely unlikely to win even 10 states.

You mean the one we're in? With the manufactured debt ceiling crisis over, we can finally roll up our sleeves and at least try to get back to what actually matters-creating jobs. Plus, a double-dip would only help the president. If the Republicans think they can get away with destroying their economy to defeat Obama, they're badly mistaken.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

As I've said before, Obama will most likely either lose or pick up more EV's. Now that's not saying he'll get 400 or something crazy - he'll get around 369 if he wins (that is, against Romney).

Streaks are worth looking at, but not completely sticking to. Should McCain have won due to the 200-year streak of electing white men to the presidency? Should Obama not have won Arkansas, Missouri, and West Virginia, since no Democrat has won without them?

No. Trends exist, and will subvert old streaks. But it isn't just the fact that a lot of Presidents have won more their second time around that leads me to believe that in Obama's case, this will also be true. Clearly, in Woodrow Wilson's case this was not true at all.

It's the fact that the next election will be almost exclusively about jobs and the economy. An election like that is never close. It'll be a landslide either for or against Obama.

Right off the bat I can think of 1960, 1976 (it wasn't just Watergate), 1980 (jumped back and forth, happened to take place at a low point for Carter), 1992 (had the election been moved even a few days earlier, it would have been closer) and 2008 before the stock market crash (yes, it was an economic race before that).

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If the economy really tanks, the voters know who to blame based on current polling.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If the economy really tanks, the voters know who to blame based on current polling.

Is that why Obama's approval rating on the economy has been hitting new lows?

you're dreaming.  full stop.

And then look at the House Republican approvals, and who Americans are blaming. They're waking up, and the Republicans' time is running out until at least 2020.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

And then look at the House Republican approvals, and who Americans are blaming. They're waking up, and the Republicans' time is running out until at least 2020.

my fault, didnt realize the GOP House was going to be headlining the ticket even though Perry is from Texas....how silly of me.

1. Rick Perry is like Bush concentrate. He won't be president, ever.
2. 1996? The nominee may as well have been Newt himself.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yeah, once unemployment sinks to 11% in a 2012 double dip, America will wake up, realize House Republicans are to blame, and then give Obama a rousing re-election romp that includes a Democratic pickup of the House.

This seems totally plausible to someone who has absolutely no grasp on politics whatsoever.

Had we been pushed to default, of course that would happen. However, right now a sh**tty but not terrible economy is probably the best scenario for the Republicans.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

We're doomed. Fascism is upon us.  it, I give up. Congress needs a good shootup (we can leave Ron Paul and some of the Progressive Caucus alone), and so do their masters in Wall Street and West Jerusalem.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'd say. Missouri, Indiana, and Montana are strong for Obama, and California goes >60% Republican?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Woah, did I just have a nervous breakdown?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

This is "Obama, Worse Case Scenario" map:

If you see this map, you are dreaming.

fixed

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

If Obama wins, this is more or less what the map looks like, with VA/OH rattling around.

I think it's more likely that Obama ends up getting the Marcellus-Wallace-in-the-basement treatment, however.

Rape by a sex slave who lives in a coffin/cage (can't remember) and eventually killing his captors and escaping? Sounds like victory to me.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Today I learned not to listen to Dead Kennedys in a bad mood. I sound like a right-wing troll pretending to be a liberal hack.