Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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The betrayal regarding the humanitarian corridors is getting to me emotionally in a way the rest of this hasn't as much so far. It's supervillainish.

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So it seems the Russians HAVE actually set up real evacuation corridors that are not death traps.

They go to Russia.

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https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1500841586237845517

Amazing. (And very on-point for Mass supply companies; the main one in my area is called "W.B. O'Connor".) Hats off to a real one.

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Plot twist: This entire invasion actually really is a special operation by the United States to strengthen NATO ((with the help of a dying Putin who will eventually get Russia to join NATO as well)

The second-season-of-Code-Geass pivot or, you know, whatever. Stranger than fiction. Nothing would surprise me at this point.

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First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant scepter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

Is this really the only development from today you consider worthy of remark? I don't even necessarily disagree with you on this particular topic, but wow.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

First Germany rearming, now Japan is setting the political foundation for recovering the Kuril Islands. Let's gooo!

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1500891170964217862?s=20&t=JfyXOI...
There will certainly be no better time to retake (either through a bilateral agreement or military action) the Kurils than now.

What a way to claim the moral high ground against what you call an unjustified irrendentist invasion, by launching an unjustified irrendentist invasion against Russia. Never mind the fact that it would be a terrible geopolitical move as it raises the dormant scepter of Japanese imperialism which is still in living memory and hated in the region and risks having South Korea join Russia and China as they hold an island (Dokdo) similarly claimed by Japan.

Is this really the only development from today you consider worthy of remark? I don't even necessarily disagree with you on this particular topic, but wow.

Other than Wang Yi offering to mediate in the conflict which I regard as a bit of virtue signaling, this is probably the news most relevant for China today. While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

The war is not taking place in China, which, in any case, can always just start indiscriminately shelling Japanese cities, repeatedly breaking ceasefires, and threatening other countries with World War III if they intervene if it feels too fweatened by the big scawy archipelago off its seaboard. That is, after all, how your preferred kind of nuclear power behaves in disputes with non-nuclear neighbors.

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AFP reports that President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is no longer pressing for NATO membership for Ukraine

This means a peace settlement is possible. Perhaps the Americans will not be so eager to give up their ambitions though and will try to strong-arm Zelensky into revoking this statement.

I still hope both Russia and Ukraine can come to their senses and work out a compromise where Ukraine has constitutional guarantees on being neutral while the two Donetsk Republics return to Ukraine as autonomous regions.  The Second condition is key especially now Russia is now much more dependent on PRC which would be very negative the the idea of independence.  The word independence is a big no no for PRC.  Autonomy yes, independence no.

I would support such a compromise to be honest. Of course while Ukraine may not need to be a part of NATO, Western countries still should definitely be working with the government to further improve the Ukrainian military to prevent future aggression.

Ukrainian neutrality guarantees (and possibly recognition of the Crimea fait accompli) were always a reasonable peace term as long as they were accompanied by Russia disengaging from Ukraine in good faith. We'll see if that "as long as" means anything, I suppose.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/omar-says-shell-vote-against-russian-oil-ban-citing-impact-on-russians-2022-3

Bds supporter now thinks sanctions are bad.

 Lord she's bad. Such a shame her primary challenger didn't win.

I wonder if this'll change the minds of any of the people who think her stance on Israel is principled and reasonable. Probably not tbh.

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While Japanese imperialism remains a threat to China if it wakes from dormancy, it is intriguing to think about the prospect of a China-South Korea alliance, shredding into ruins the American strategy for East Asia.

You know as well as I do that the ending of the US-SK alliance, nevermind a China-SK alliance, is extremely unlikely to happen; especially with SK very possibly electing a hardline Pro-US anti-China president tomorrow.

It's unlikely in the current state of the world but it becomes much more likely in a world where Japan is launching imperialist wars, a world that posters were short-sightedly cheering. South Korea (both Koreas actually) still hate Japan and resent the annexation, South Korea holds an island that Japan claims (Dokdo), and China and Korea historically had centuries of friendly relations.

Meanwhile Russia is literally in the middle of conducting an imperialist war right now.

Imperialism is expansionism or irredentism by countries whose citizens have civil and political rights; the more civil and political rights they have, the imperialister it is. (Which, given the rights situation in Japan, means that it would still be less imperialist than many-to-most other liberal democracies...)

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Something I think people are missing with regards to the red line issue is that punitive sanctions at quite this scale are themselves unprecedented, especially against a country like Russia that both is very large and had a more or less "normal" role in the world economy right up until they were imposed. Even if they're not really working that we know of, yet, it isn't like the West has been sitting idle just because there are no Boots On The Ground or ICBMs in the air.

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Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. The Saudi-caused humanitarian crisis in Yemen is still way worse than the Russian-caused one in Ukraine and will probably continue to be so through several more rounds of potential escalation of the latter conflict.

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Should Biden bend over on this one as the lesser evil?

No. The Saudi-caused humanitarian crisis in Yemen is still way worse than the Russian-caused one in Ukraine and will probably continue to be so through several more rounds of potential escalation of the latter conflict.

But unironically, Guess who's buddies with Saudi Arabia ? Russia, people.


I wonder why we're still friends with Saudi Arabia, because it's obvious that they have dangerous ties with Russia and other hostile states. It's the oil isn't it ?

Of course it's the oil, plus sheer Cold War inertia from when the overall American Middle East policy was to prop up despotic monarchies against nominally-socialist authoritarian republics. What else would it be?

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German news sources already report that a member of Lavrov's delegation said there would be "no concessions at all." Probably this meeting is just a waste of time.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1501654121908211715

At this point, it seems clear Russia is only conducting these meetings for propaganda purposes. Russia is using them as evidence at home that they are the side "wanting peace", as part of the brain dead narrative that the war is a defensive "special military operation". 

If I were Ukraine I'd stop playing along with Russia's games and refuse to meet (mentioning how the government is busy defending the country and doesn't have time to be lectured to) until the Russia is willing to offer significant concessions.

Russia's already laid out their red lines: DPR, LPR and Crimea recognition, as well as constitutional neutrality. That is their absolute limit; they won't accept anything less than that.

Also, I'll say it's very easy for us to say Ukraine should be aggressive in neogitations. Keep this in mind: Ukrainian forces are stuggling, and stuggling heavily. Their only way out of this is a negotiated peace.

Again, the west should make it clear that none of the sanctions are going away unless Russia removes its troops from *all* of Ukraine—and that includes Crimea.

I guess I just don't view sanctions with enough enthusiasm, even as an alternative to conventional warfare, to agree with this. It's not like this is a country where Ivan Ivanovich can do anything about government policy if he's suffering financially from it.

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Let's say in the next 2-3 weeks the Russians capture Kiev and Kharkov and lose another 20% of their forces. Who would be winning the war at that point?

Your doctor, since you would have an erection lasting longer than four hours and would give him or her a story to tell at dinner parties for the rest of his or her career.

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So I was just skimming through the Russia invades Georgia thread we had and it reminded me that that invasion took place around the same time as an Olympics in Beijing.  Weird heh?

The Crimea annexation and start of the Donbas war were right after the Sochi games too. Something about the Olympics gets Putin extra bloodthirsty.

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Madison Cawthorn calls Ukraine government 'evil,' Zelensky 'a thug'
 "Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug," Cawthorn said in a video obtained by WRAL. "Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies."

The “GOP’s AOC” has a less than nuanced take on this situation. Truly the Party of Lincoln Putin.

"Woke ideologies" like...[checks notes] mass mobilization driven by intense civic nationalism with a vague residual blood and soil component? lol okay. He's probably just mad it's only vague and residual.

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Just because Russia is asking China for assistance doesn't mean it will be forthcoming. They asked Kazakhstan too.

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I find it extremely unlikely that China would provide any type of direct military assistance to Russia.

As it is what there is of the Chinese Tech Sector is already walking a really fine line with the Global Sanctions Regime against Russia, where simply trading with a banned Russian entity and basically completely demolish their inexpensive alternatives within the European, Asian-Pacific market, not to mention the US market for a range of consumer goods.

Sure China will likely try to fill the gap in the Russian market for consumer electronic items such as PCs, Printers, and Cell Phones, but anything involving "dual use technologies" will cause those companies more harm than good, considering the relatively small share of the Global Market which Russia consists of.

Additionally, many subcomponents used in Chinese Electronic Mfg plants actually are manufactured elsewhere, not to mention some of the tooling in the fabs, etc...

As it is, pretty sure the US will be talking be all of these related issues with China in Rome coming up here....

Forgive me if I don't do a wall of quotes from various recent articles related to this at the moment.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/13/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-updates/#link-UD2Q4MAMAJEAZO5TUEYSMNX4JA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chip-makers-stockpiled-key-materials-ahead-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-11647167582?mod=livecoverage_web

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-11/card/u-s-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-to-meet-with-chinese-official-on-ukraine-Kt4HRrsR6vz0yH4t9Pmo

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/03/12/will-china-offer-russia-financial-help

You make good points about the real intention of this leak. I'm now thinking that this was intentionally leaked by the US government to swing their dicks and show off how powerful their sanctions are in deterring China from aiding Russia. They score some cheap reputation points this way about how they are still in charge of the world. Well, I think it's time for China to call their bluff and aid Russia if only to spit in the face of the sanctions. I'm not saying the sanctions would not hurt China, because as you detailed they would. But it's time for China to stand its ground and retaliate with its own sanctions, possibly up to an embargo. Everyone knows midterm elections are in 8 months. The only Russian export bought in meaningful quantities in the US is oil and gas price surge is already causing consternation in the US. You thought inflation and supply chain issues were bad now? Remember March 2020 when masks and hand sanitizer were sold out everywhere and surgical masks were going for $1 apiece? Does Biden really want to risk economic and possible societal meltdown just in time for Democrats to be demolished, so he can help Ukraine? Really?

You know, generally when a citizen of one country is living and working in another, they're motivated to support good relations between the two countries, rather than actively rooting for those relations to worsen.

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The logic of some internet "journalists" is incredibly dumb. "Why is the mainstream media resistant to reporting US troop movements close to a warzone?!?!"

They happily report on Russian troop movements. You're making the argument that because the American media is doing the bidding of the US government on this issue, Russia is perfectly justified in treating them in the same way the US treated RT.

But Russia is not treating Western journalists "the way the US treated RT". The various RT personalities are, as far as is known, all still alive.

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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1503154188355870724?
Here's hoping to a lucky sniper, drone or missile meeting with Mr Kadyrov.

Ramzan Kadyrov is more of a deplorable thug then Putin.

Oh, by far. To name just the most famous example to Western observers, life as a gay person in most of Russia is dreary and psychosocially hostile, but manageable. Life as a gay person in Chechnya is comparable to the worst aspects of Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Jamaica rolled up into one terrifying mass.

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Did I miss something today? Folks seem to be getting more grim about the possibility of nuclear war since this afternoon (Forgive me Torie if that's not what you were implying):

Thank you Storr for the translation, and for being you as this tragedy unfolds, and day by day gets ever more horrific, and the odds of the unimaginable tick up.

And from another thread:

Nuclear War is probably the endgame here, if only because Putin isn't going to stop in Ukraine. He's going to invade a NATO nation, possibly the Baltic States, possibly Poland, and that's going to trigger a massive nuclear exchange.

Nuclear war is the most likely outcome at this point.

I'm wondering what exactly has everybody so spooked too. "Nuclear war is the most likely outcome" strikes me as a ridiculous overreaction to unconfirmed reports of Russia asking for Chinese assistance and a zero-casualties accident involving a recon drone.

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Edit: If Ukraine is seriously considering any iteration of this deal then it means they know they are still in trouble and their nation has suffered from the war, and it's not all peaches and roses as their propaganda, cheerfully relayed on this thread, would have us believe.

Morally normal people in the Ukraine thread: Even if Ukraine doesn't "win", how hard they've fought and how much they've made Russia pay for this invasion is inspiring. Ukraine isn't a perfect country or a perfect culture, but their fight is democracy's fight unless we want a day of the jackboot on our own shores sooner or later.
compucomp in the Ukraine thread:

Can you taste the leather filling your body? Can you feel the pressure on your tongue as it gropes tirelessly on the tread, desperately seeking to clean even the small space afforded it? Can you feel my hand on the back of your skull, pushing your mouth even wider around it? It’s improbably large. Impossible. Insurmountable. Gargantuan. Nothing has made your face ache like this.

Tears are welling in your eyes. You can’t tell if you’re crying from shame or happiness. This isn’t even boot service anymore. It’s one person totally excavating the face of another with a boot. It’s madness.

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Just another "military target":

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1504141027879313412

But consider: the rosy Ukrainian propaganda we're parroting doesn't account for how leaving this theater standing would have affected Russia's national interests.

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The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

It hasn't escaped my notice that a disproportionate number of the latter seem to be taking place in Mariupol. I'm sure some of that is just because it's siege warfare, but I also am starting to wonder if perhaps there are some especially bad (or sick) guys among the Russian operational commanders there.

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Chinese turning on Russia?

https://twitter.com/cgtnamerica/status/1504510377446543362?s=21

compucomp in SHAMBLES