AuH2O
YaBB God
Posts: 4,239
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« on: October 29, 2006, 12:57:25 AM » |
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The fact-- note, the FACT-- that Steele pulled many black votes for Ehrlich in 2002 is very important. Really LG is a pretty worthless job and it's easy to say picking a certain demographic is more pandering than anything else. Obviously that's the case with Brown. But this is an entirely different ballgame. Steele isn't running as a white Republican's sidekick, he's running on his own and for a very important office.
As I've said before, Cardin's campaign has made some very interesting tactical decisions in this race. And I say interesting, rather than bad, because that cannot be determined until the votes are counted. Personally I think Cardin has made a mistake by making the campaign solely about Bush, with Steele in 2nd.
First of all, Cardin is implicity admitting his own weakess. If his candidacy was compelling, there would be little need for the kind of mass offensives he's launched against Steele via Bush. Cardin is running in a Democrat's dream environment. Dem year, plus in the state of Maryland.
Second of all, I think there is a chance his campaign methods backfire. If Democrats fall short on election day, it will be because they went after Bush and ignored the dynamics of state and local races. Bush already drags down the GOP-- running scare ads on Bush is a poor strategy at the margin, because the WaPo and NYT and CNN and various other outlets attack Bush all the time anyway.
One thing I learned from the only political bet I've ever lost (out of 20 or so)- 2004 Colorado- was not to put much faith in weak candidates. Even if various factors suggest they should do well by party alone, this underestimates the cumulative intelligence of the voting public, which is often weak individually but somewhat more capable in the hundreds of thousands.
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