Special Election CA-48

[AuH2O]

There is some interest because of Gilchrist's candidacy.

If no one gets 50% +1, by the way, any qualifying party's top candidate makes the runoff. So no matter how many votes they get, the Green, Libertarian, and American Independent parties would all participate, as well of course as the GOP and DNC.

[AuH2O]

Gilchrist is in 3rd right now, behind 2 Republicans, and he's gaining ground on Brewer (endorsed by McCain and various moderate GOP elements). He's got a decent lead over the leading Democrat, who is in 4th.

Looks like Gilchrist did the worst among absentee voters... in part perhaps because he's gained some momentum of late. Campbell appears unlikely to get 50%.

[AuH2O]

Gilchrist finished in 3rd, with 14.4%, more than the top 2 Democrats combined. My rough math indicates he got over 20% of those that voted today as opposed to absentee. The 2nd place finisher, Republican Marilyn Brewer, got more votes than all Democrats combined.

Campbell finished with 46% after getting ~52% of absentees; those ballots however numbered over half the total. His election day performance was around 40%.

The runoff will be:

GOP: Campbell- 46%
AIP: Gilchrist- 14.4%
DNC: Young- 8.9%
GRN: Tiritilli- .9%
LP: Cohen- .8%

Campbell is the overwhelming favorite. There is the potential for a 3-way race if Gilchrist gets an infusion of funds, though neither he nor Young stands a serious chance of winning. Gilchrist should at least be able to put some fear into Campbell.