Culture Gap Could Keep Democrats From Gaining Seats in 2006

[AuH2O]

Well part of the problem is that many on the far left, i.e. jfern, are totally in dreamland when it comes to surveying the political landscape.

So obviously the course of action they recommend is going to be wrong-- even a rational decision-maker needs accurate information to make that decision.

Most basically, they believe voters are much more liberal than they really are. Until they enter the real world, the bad decisions will continue.

[AuH2O]

jfern for DNC chair. He'd be "better" than Dean.

[AuH2O]

If Boxer is so wonderful why aren't Democrats clamoring for her to run for President?

[AuH2O]

So you admit she is extreme?

[AuH2O]

One problem is that Democrats think they can fool people more easily than they really can. Calculating your platform in a more precise fashion won't bring back the South. It's gone, and Southerners won't trust the Democratic Party on a national level for... well, an extremely long time, to say the least.

Honestly Democrats have a lot of trouble identifying their problem, because it's small enough to not be particularly apparent nor fixable, but large enough that they lose elections.

Pandering to minorities is probably the Democrats' biggest weakness, though on paper their anti-religious disposition is the issue.

[AuH2O]

The problem in two-party politics is that the parties a) tend to regress to the mean and b) must build constituencies representing roughly half the voting population.

You cannot add without subtracting. Adding Southernerns means losing someone.

[AuH2O]

The idea the GOP is factionalized is one of the most hilarious fictions that's made its way into many people's sense of the conventional wisdom. It's so laughably wrong-- and so easily proven statistically and empirically-- that only pure delusion can lead one to that foolish conclusion.

Just to illustrate briefly:

- no mark indicates mainline Republican
- * indicates religious right
- # indicates libertarian
- M is for moderate

These can be combined, of course.


Group 1

Bob Riley-- M*
Mike Huckabee-- M*
Haley Barbour
Jeb Bush
Sonny Perdue
Ernie Fletcher
Mark Sanford-- #
Richard Perry

Group 2

Mitch Daniels
Jodi Rell-- M
Robert Ehrlich-- #
Mitt Romney
Tim Pawlenty
Matt Blunt
George Pataki-- M
Robert Taft
Don Carcieri-- M
James Douglas-- M#

Group 3
Frank H. Murkowski-- M
Arnold A. Schwarzenegger-- M
William F. Owens
Dirk A. Kempthorne-- #
Dave Heineman
Kenny C. Guinn
John Hoeven
Michael Rounds
Jon Huntsman, Jr.



The precise labels are debatable and not meant to be exact. The first group is roughly the South, the second the North and Midwest, and the third the West.

The only clear difference is there are a couple more moderates in the Northeast, and that the Southern moderates are still generally conservative on social issues.

There are also libertarian and moderate Republican Senators from deep red states, i.e. Lindsey Graham, Johnny Isakson, John McCain, Lamar Alexander, Dick Lugar, Lisa Murkowski, Ted Stevens, just as Chuck Grassley, Norm Coleman, Pete Domenici, and Rick Santorum are from highly competitive states.

Voter surveys also make it clear that the GOP is quite well unified on a values basis.

[AuH2O]

Maybe you were thinking of another Mike Huckabee. I was thinking of the one that wants in-state tuition for illegals, raised taxes, and is all about government spending increases in every possible area (education, infastructure-- roads, technology, etc.).

The * indicates he is socially conservative. Maybe you can't read...

[AuH2O]

"Well Ladies and Gentlemen, the reason you need to work hard in Polk County next year, the reason that it is important that you sign up to help candidates get elected who believe like you believe...is because you're the somebodys and you gotta do the something, because if you don't and I don't, who will? And if we don't do it now, when will it get done?"

That's the offending portion.

And for a Democrat to whine about the "Nazi" card is... well... like Ted Kennedy talking about drunk driving.

[AuH2O]

Only if you're a hyper-sensitive, rabid drooling Democrat hack.

Any rational person can see he was talking emotionally about his trip and his daughter's simple question, which then segued into his wrap-up pep talk. If you want to be technical about it, the reference he makes in that paragraph is to his daughter, not the Holocaust, though her question was inspired by the memorial.