Mark Warner, the Democratic contender

[AuH2O]

OK.

First, I don't think assuming Bayh runs makes much sense. To be honest, he's basically been invisible in DC... I see no reason to believe he even thinks a run is feasible, let alone the objective fact being a run is feasible.

More likely, you have Clinton, Kerry, Edwards, and then the Governors. Known to be interested (strongly): Vilsack, Richardson, Rendell, Warner.

Now, I doubt that many "names" would last particularly long. People drop out as it becomes clear what the pecking order looks like. So what really matters is, who is in the race on the days of the Iowa caucus and then the New Hampshire Primary?

Now, Kerry is a complete asshole and might stay in regardless of the polls, and that can't hurt Warner so far as I can tell. The crux of the problem for Warner is that Vilsack knocks him out of the top 2 in Iowa should he run, and NH probably isn't great Warner territory no matter what.

For Warner to get the nomination, which I think is a 1% probability at best, would require a couple candidates to drain Hillary with none hurting Warner. Perhaps Rendell fits that description, and presumably Kerry.

Warner has a very nice shot at Veep if he finishes 2nd or even 3rd depending on the runner-up... I imagine that's part of his calculation, since is he pretty young. He also is as exciting as watching grass grow, which I think will hurt him come campaign season.

[AuH2O]

He didn't connect "so well," he just did better than other Democrats in rural areas because he ran so far right economically.

But then he raised taxes, and now we have a budget surplus. Oops. Since he's term-limited the GOP doesn't bother attacking him but, if they did, his approval numbers would plummet.

On a charisma scale 1-10, he's a 3. Yeah, it could be worse, but still not too good.

And I wouldn't worry overly much about what some crazed Kossacks say about Warner. They'll turn on him once they find their lefty of choice, just like they've turned on dozens of politicians-- sometimes for as little as one errant remark or one vote they don't even understand.

Worse for Warner, I don't know what he's going to do about some of the positions he took in 2001. I guess he can stick to his generally anti-gun control views... no one got on Dean too badly. But he is pro-business through and through, which is not great news for some very large Democrat constituencies (including the DKossers and the far left, as well as Union Democrats).

[AuH2O]

Allen is a 6 or so. I don't totally get it, actually... personally my inclination is towards more of the wonkish style... but with the population at large Allen's style plays well (similar to Bush but smarter).

Perhaps Warner could improve to a 4, but that's not where he is now... I've seen enough of him to guarantee you he's not going to catch many crowds on fire that don't start that way.

Here are a few others, current and historical:

Frist- 2
H Clinton- 4/5
Sanford- 7/8
McCain- 5/6
Dean- 7/8
Kerry- 2
Edwards- 5
Guiliani- 8/9
B Clinton- 9
Reagan- 9/10