Census Projections - Rocky Mountain States

[jimrtex]

I've added the Rocky Mountain states to the links from the 2010 apportionment page. As before, comments or questions are welcome.

It is surprising that there is only one split needed in Colorado with 4 large counties together.

BTW, there are parts of Arapahoe County that are surrounded by Denver, so this ends up being a split as well.  But this would only require an adjustment in the boundary between 1 and 7.

[jimrtex]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Glendale and a couple of unincorporated patches amount to a few thousand people surrounded by Denver. I can estimate Glendale, but the Census doesn't provide anything to estimate the other areas isolated in Arapahoe.

4547 in Glendale
2517 in Holly Hills
41 in other areas.

7105 total.

Holly Hills is mostly single family residential, and Glendale is mostly businesses with apartments.  If there are any estimated increases for Glendale, it would be based on construction of new high rise apartments, it would not be something to project forward to 2010.  The census estimate for Glendale in 2005 was 4771.  So I would use 7105 for the projected population, and assume all increases occur elsewhere in Arapahoe county.

[jimrtex]

Don't you think having Douglas County and Boulder County in the same district could lead to a culture clash? The former has more in common with El Paso County, but by 2010 they will be too large to form 1 district. Boulder should go with Jefferson or Larimer and some smaller counties.

Longmont, Lousville, and Lafayette are not that dissimilar to Douglas County.

It is a feature of a system that avoids splitting counties that political considerations are ignored when drawing the districts.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It will be close.  In 2000, Idaho was almost exactly at 2/435 of the US population.  To get a 3rd seat, it would need around sqrt(6)/435 of about 2.45 / 435 of the population.  That would require a growth of 22% faster than the US growth rate or around 40%.   Adding 500,000 to 1.3 million in 20 years is a healthy increase unless you're Nevada.

[jimrtex]

I'm surprized North Carolina isn't gaining any seats-wasn't that previously a fast growing state?

It barely got the 12th seat, and that was with favorable rounding.  This decade it is consolidating its gains, and will get a 13th in 2020.

[jimrtex]

What I´m assuming here is that the Census Bureau Population Estimates are again lower than the actual Census Count in 2010 will be.

But aren't also assuming that the error will be in Idaho's favor?  That they are underestimating Idaho, more than some other state?