One Voter, One Vote Congressional Districts

[jimrtex]

These are the final districts for Harris County.



Generally, I placed the highest minority concentration in TX-9, TX-18, and TX-39, while placing majority Anglo areas in TX-2, TX-7, and TX-10.

I first placed TX-29 in the majority Hispanic areas similar to its current configuration. TX-9 is also similar to its current configuration, but extends further north in the 3rd Ward). About 1/4 of TX-9 will extend into Fort Bend, likely similar to its current configuration.

TX-18 added a large area in northwest Houston. It is likely to be a performing black district, but if not it does not really matter. The Black population is 18% of the county, and the Hispanic population is 43%.

TX-2 was shifted clockwise, though the district will still be concentrated in northern and northeast Harris County. It will have a tiny bit of Galveston County.

TX-7 is similar to its current configuration.

TX-10 is shifted majorly towards Houston, but does include Waller, and a small bit of Montgomery.

[jimrtex]

This is the final Fort Bend map.



The area covered by TX-9 is quite similar to the current map. One precinct that is in the city of Houston was added in the northern arm. The southern arm was more closely conformed to Houston and Missouri City, inside Texas 6.


This is the final Brazoria County map.



The boundary between TX-27 and TX-14 largely follows the Brazos River, with two precincts on the west bank in the Freeport area included in TX-14. This was largely done for population equality reasons, but does do a better job of capturing the Lake Jackson area.

An alternative would have been to come in from the west and take in all of the Lake Jackson area, but this would have been very much a keyhole shape with a connecting corridor and then bulging out to capture most but not all of the built-up area.


This is the final Houston metro map.



Harris, Fort Bend, and Brazoria County are divided as shown on the previous map.

One precinct in the southwest corner of Montgomery is included in TX-10. One precinct on the south side of Clear Lake in Galveston County is included in TX-2. These precincts were largely chosen for reasons of population equality.

[jimrtex]

This is the final division for Hidalgo.



TX-34 is given the city of Mercedes. It was chosen because of its size and is only 15 miles from Harlingen.

[jimrtex]

This is the final 39 district map. Standard deviation is 0.24%.




12 counties are divided.




San Antonio-Austin I-35 corridor. 6-1/2 districts.




DFW (Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, Denton) 9 districts, bits of four others.




Houston (Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Brazoria, Galveston) 9 districts.

[jimrtex]

What happens to the gap between 11 and 16 if you move Loving County over to the Hispanic district? Does it even out population or tip 16 into being more populous?

The gap between TX-11 and TX-16 is 284. Loving County had 66 votes, so it would reduce the gap a bit to 152.

Under the current map TX-16 had 0.834 and TX-23 had 1.043. In eliminating a district from Bexar, TX-23 increased to 1.296.

I likely expanded TX-16 to get to the Pecos River and saw that Ward had the right population to get very close to 1.000. Meanwhile, the existing TX-28 was eliminated and TX-23 extend down to include Webb. Counties that had been in TX-23 were then moved to TX-11.

At that point TX-11 was at 1.070 or 1.080. I then a more global apportionment for the five west Texas districts (TX-11, TX-13, TX-16, TX-19, and TX-25) giving them a collective population close to 5.000 while equalizing among the five districts. But TX-16 was so close at that point it was ignored, so that I never really looked into improving pairwise equality between TX-11 and TX-16.

Loving is so tiny, so even though it was 60-4-2 Trump-Biden-Jorgenson, shifting it into TX-16 would only decrease the Biden share of the vote in that district from 64.45% to 64.43%.

[jimrtex]

I believe Crenshaw lives in the Houston Heights (probably in your TX-18).  What are the racial demographics of this district?

While he has ties to Houston he has spent much of his live elsewhere. His father worked in the oil industry, much of it internationally.

Crenshaw was born in Aberdeen, Scotland, and attended schools in Colombia and Ecuador, and graduated from high school in Bogota. He went to Tufts University (outside Boston) for his college education and went directly into the Navy and Seals after graduation. He would not have been stationed in Texas since he was not in Naval Aviation. He met his wife at Coronado (her father is a Vice Admiral).

He may have lived in Katy during part of his youth, which would match up with his father working in the Energy Corridor (I-10 West/Katy Freeway). He was separated from the Navy in 2016. After separation he went the JFK School of Government at Harvard, and for a short while was on Pete Sessions staff (presumably in Washington rather than Dallas).

His campaign website said he assisted in Katy during Harvey, which was in 2017. It makes sense that he was living in Katy at that time, though not necessarily.

The original arm down into near west Houston was not as weird as it ended up. The federal district court forced TX-18 and TX-9 to be pushed further north, which in turn made TX-2 take a more circuitous loop around TX-18.

I did find a story about the election-night watch party at the time of the 1018 primary which was at a bar on Washington Ave, which would be consistent with his living in the Heights.


I don't have data on the demographic makeup. I did use ACS data for census tracts to roughly determine minority areas in the larger cities (Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio and Houston), but that did not have CVAP data. And my maps are drawn with election precincts. I may check to see if there is some way to do batch input to DRA.

[jimrtex]

I believe Crenshaw lives in the Houston Heights (probably in your TX-18).  What are the racial demographics of this district?

I figured out how to load the maps into DRA. This is the racial composition by VAP (not CVAP).

VAP: White 57.8%, Hispanic 22.3%, Black 14.9%, Asian 3.9%.

[jimrtex]

TX-4 is in northeast Texas.
...

VAP: White 64.5%, Asian 12.6%, Black 12.0%, Hispanic 9.8%.

This can't be correct? 

Better?

VAP: White 78.9%, Black 11.7%, Hispanic 7.0%, Asian 0.7%.

I copied the values for TX-3. It is interesting that Black and Hispanic percentages for the two districts are so similar.

[jimrtex]

Thanks for doing this, this is a fascinating exercise. 

One thing that might be interesting is if you could list the total population of each district so we can see how much switching to CVAP changes things. 

Does this link give you access to the map on DRA?

Texas OMOV Congressional District Map

I have added the population and VAP (so far just TX-1 and TX-2).

If we were doing this for real we would probably have to use CVAP, rather than votes cast which is only partially a proxy. Turnout among citizen adults is lower based on age, income and somewhat based on race. Black and White turnout are about the same, and adjusted for income may even be higher for Blacks. Asian and Hispanic turnout even among citizens may be lower.

[jimrtex]

It works, thanks.  Crazy that there are some districts that are almost 3 times the population of others. 

DRA says a 95% deviation range is outside what is typically accepted.

I've added the VAP and population for TX-1 through TX-6.

[jimrtex]

TX-7 is in west Houston.



Its electorate is 100.1% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.866 of the average. Its population is 0.897 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is greater than the VAP indicates somewhat lower  turnout in a largely suburban district.

VAP: White 58.5%, Hispanic 19.4%, Black 12.7%, Asian 8.5%.

Largest cities are Houston (west), Katy (Harris County), Bellaire, West University Place, and Memorial villages,

TX-7 is comprised of part of one county: Harris 100% (17.7% of county).

Sources of TX-7 (2022): TX-7 74.0%, TX-10 15.5%, TX-2 10.4%

Distribution of TX-7 (2012): TX-7 67.7%, TX-10 17.0%, TX-9 9.7%, TX-18 5.5%.

TX-7 is moved slightly westward.

In 2020, TX-7 was Biden was 52.5%, Trump 46.0%. The current district was Biden 53.6%, 45.1%. Thus the new boundaries shift 1% more favorable for a Republican.

Lizzie Fletcher was elected by a 50.8% to 47.4% margin in 2020. With a one percent shift this would become quite competitive, particularly if Dan Crenshaw were to run in the district.

[jimrtex]

TX-8 is in Montgomery and Walker counties.



Its electorate is 100.3% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.917 of the average. Its population is 0.878 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is even less than the VAP indicates higher turnout in a suburban/exurban district.

VAP: White 74.5%, Hispanic 14.4%, Black 7.9%, Asian 2.2%.

Largest cities are The Woodlands (CDP), Conroe, and Huntsville. The small part of Houston (Kingwood) that is Montgomery County is also in the district.

TX-8 is comprised of part of almost all of one county and all of another: Montgomery 91.9% (98.5% of county) and Walker 8.1%,

Sources of TX-8 (2022): TX-8 100.0%.

Distribution of TX-8 (2012): TX-8 74.9%, TX-10 9.4%, TX-39 8.0%, TX-36 5.0%, TX-2 2.6%.

All of the new TX-8 is in the current district. About 1/4 of the current district is stripped off including all or parts of five more remote counties and the portion that is in Harris County.

In 2020, TX-8 was Trump 70.5%, Biden 28.0%. The current district was Trump 70.5%, Biden 28.1% Thus the new boundaries have zero effect on the partisan leanings.

Kevin Brady is retiring so the new representative will be chosen in the Republican primary. Ballotpedia shows 12 candidates as of now.

[jimrtex]

TX-9 is in south and southwest Houston and extends into Fort Bend County



Its electorate is 100.0% of the ideal. Its VAP is 1.113 of the average. Its population is 1.355 of the average.

VAP that is greater than average indicates relatively low performance due to either greater  non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or lower turnout. Population that is greater than average indicates a combination of fewer eligible voters (more non-citizens or more children (under 18) or lower turnout). That the population is even greater than the VAP indicates low turnout in a district with a large non-citizen population.

VAP: Black 46.0%, Hispanic 24.1%, White 18.4%, Asian 11.0%.

Largest cities are Houston (most of the Harris part of the district is in Houston, and some of the Fort Bend part) and Missouri City (generally north of Texas 6). Also Mission Bend CDP, Fresno CDP and Four Corners CDP).

TX-9 is comprised of part of two counties: Harris 76.5% (13.5% of county) and Fort Bend 23.5% (19.0% of county).

Sources of TX-9 (2022): TX-9 76.9%, TX-18 10.8%, TX-7 10.7%, TX-22 2.0%.

Distribution of TX-9 (2012): TX-9 94.4%, TX-22 3.4%, TX-29 2.2%.

All of the new TX-9 is retained in the current district, which expands northward in Houston.

In 2020, TX-9 was Biden 76.2%, Trump 22.7%. The current district was Biden 75.7%, Trump 23.2%. Thus the new boundaries make the district 0.5% more Democratic.

Sheila Jackson Lee lives in the portion of TX-18 moved into TX-9. It is not required that a representative live in their district. Both Jackson Lee and Al Green are over 70.

[jimrtex]

TX-10 is in northwest Harris County and Waller county and a smidgen of Montgomery county.



Its electorate is 100.0% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.846 of the average. Its population is 0.855 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

VAP: White 56.6%, Hispanic 19.5%, Black 15.0%, Asian 8.0%.

Largest cities are Houston (relatively small population in fence lines), The Woodlands (CDP) (portion in Harris County), Katy (portion in Waller County), and Tomball.

TX-10 is comprised of part of two counties and all of another: Harris 90.8% (16.1% of County), Waller 7.8%, and Montgomery 1.4% (1.5% of county).

Sources of TX-10 (2022): TX-10 50.7%, TX-7 18.6%, TX-2 18.1%, TX-8 12.6%.

Distribution of TX-10 (2012): TX-10 34.9%, TX-35 22.8%, TX-37 12.3%, TX-7 10.7%, TX-27 5.4%.

The district moves substantially into Harris County, losing the parts in the Austin area and in between. This reflects the fact that the Houston metro area is entitled to 9 districts.

In 2020, TX-10 was Trump 59.0%, Biden 39.6%. The current district was Trump 50.0%, Biden 48.4%. Loss of the Austin part of the district makes the district substantially more Republican.

Michael McCaul lives in Austin. He might face a primary opponent if he ran in TX-10, but he has considerable personal wealth. He could also run in the new TX-39.

[jimrtex]

TX-11 is in West Texas including the Permian Basin, Concho Valley, and Hill Country.



Its electorate is 100.0% of the ideal. Its VAP is 1.111 of the average. Its population is 1.059 of the average.

VAP that is above average indicates relatively low performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or lower turnout. That the population variation is less than the VAP indicates higher participation among eligible adults.

VAP: White 57.4%, Hispanic 36.9%, Black 3.9%, Asian 0.8%.

Largest cities are Midland, Odessa, San Angelo, Del Rio, Big Spring, Kerrville, Andrews, and Fredericksburg.

TX-11 is comprised of 33 counties: Midland 20.3%, Tom Green 15.5%, Ector 15.4%, Kerr 9.6%, Gillespie 5.5%, Val Verde 5.3%, Bandera 4.4%, Llano 4.4%, Howard 3.5%, Andrews 2.0%, Runnels 1.5%, Coleman 1.4%, McCulloch 1.2%, San Saba 0.9%, Mason 0.9%, Kimble 0.8%, Martin 0.7%, Winkler 0.7%, Real 0.7%, Coke 0.6%, Crockett 0.5%, Sutton 0.5%, Crane 0.5%, Upton 0.5%, Concho 0.4%, Schleicher 0.4%, Reagan 0.4%, Edwards 0.4%, Menard 0.4%, Irion 0.3%, Glasscock 0.2%, Sterling 0.2%, and Loving 0.02%.

Sources of TX-11 (2022): TX-11 67.1%, TX-21 20.1%, TX-23 9.2%, TX-19 3.5%.

Distribution of TX-11 (2012): TX-11 65.4%, TX-25 26.6%, TX-19 8.1%.

The district adds in the southeast from TX-21, transferring area in the northeast to TX-25.

In 2020, TX-11 was Trump 76.0%, Biden 22.8%. The current district was Trump 79.1%, Biden 19.7%.

August Pfluger is from San Angelo, he won a 10 candidate primary without a runoff. At 42, he could hold this seat for decades.

[jimrtex]

TX-12 is in central, western, and northern Tarrant County.



Its electorate is 100.1% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.981 of the average. Its population is 0.986 of the average.

That the electorate, VAP, and population are all about par indicates a mix of central city, inner suburbs, and outer suburbs. Fort Worth is generally more working class than Dallas, and jobs at DFW do not require a college degree.

VAP: White 63.5%, Hispanic 21.6%, Black 8.9%, Asian 4.7%.

Largest cities are Fort Worth (Central and North), North Richland Hills, Keller, Haltom City, Hurst, Watauga, Saginaw, and Azle.

TX-12 is part on one county: Tarrant 100.0% (34.8% of county)

Sources of TX-12 (2022): TX-12 54.3%, TX-26 29.5%, TX-24 8.6%, TX-33 6.9%, TX-6 0.8%.

Distribution of TX-12 (2012): TX-12 42.5%, TX-6 33.8%, TX-25 20.5%, TX-13 3.2%

The district moves northward pushing TX-26 out of Tarrant, while giving up southwestern Tarrant to TX-6, and areas outside the county to TX-25.

In 2020, TX-12 was Trump 57.0%, Biden 41.3%. The current district was Trump 60.4%, Biden 37.9%. The 3% leftward shift will not make the district competitive.

Kay Granger is 78 and serving her 13th term. She fended off a primary challenger in 2020. Shedding exurbs may make her more secure, but her age may become an issue.

[jimrtex]

TX-13 is in West Texas including the Panhandle and upper Red River. US 287 provides the connection between the two areas (watch out for the speed trap in Estelline).



Its electorate is 100.5% of the ideal. Its VAP is 1.096 of the average. Its population is 1.017 of the average.

VAP that is above average indicates relatively low performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or lower turnout. That the population variation is less than the VAP indicates higher participation among eligible adults.

VAP: White 72.8%, Hispanic 18.5%, Black 5.7%, Asian 1.4%.

Largest cities are Amarillo, Wichita Falls, Pampa, Gainesville, Canyon, Hereford, Dumas, Borger, and Vernon.

TX-13 is comprised of 36 whole counties and a bit of a 37th: Randall 22.2%, Wichita 15.8%, Potter 11.4%, Wise 11.1%, Cooke 6.5%, Montague 3.4%, Hutchinson 3.0%, Gray 2.7%, Denton 2.5% (1.7% of county), Clay 2.0%, Moore 1.9%, Archer 1.6%, Deaf Smith 1.6%, Wilbarger 1.6%, Jack 1.3%, Ochiltree 1.1%, Carson 1.1%, Wheeler 0.8%, Childress 0.8%, Hartley 0.7%, Hansford 0.7%, Hemphill 0.6%, Baylor 0.6%, Donley 0.6%, Dallam 0.6%, Hardeman 0.5%, Knox 0.5%, Lipscomb 0.5%, Collingsworth 0.4%, Hall 0.4%, Armstrong 0.4%, Oldham 0.3%, Sherman 0.3%, Cottle 0.2%, Foard 0.2%, Roberts 0.2%, and King 0.1%.

Sources of TX-13 (2022): TX-13 93.4%, TX-12 4.1%, and TX-26 2.5%.

Distribution of TX-13 (2012): TX-13 98.0%, TX-19 2.0%.

The district largely conforms to the current district with a bit added on the east end.

In 2020, TX-13 was Trump 79.1%, Biden 19.5%. The current district was Trump 79.1%, Biden 19.4%, so virtually no change.

Ronny Jackson was elected in 2020 after Mac Thornberry decided not run for re-election after 13 terms. There was some controversy about his residence, since it was only established after he decided to run and resigned from the Navy. In a December 2019 interview he corrected the reporting, by stating that he had lived in Amarillo for one-and-a-half months. He did grow up in Levelland. Jackson had a come-from-behind win in the primary runoff. This is a district where a Trump endorsement would be helpful.

[jimrtex]

TX-14 is in Brazoria and Galveston counties.



Its electorate is 100.2% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.958 of the average. Its population is 0.897 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

VAP: White 58.4%, Hispanic 21.5%, Black 14.6%, Asian 4.6%.

Largest cities are Pearland, League City, Galveston, Texas City, Friendswood, Alvin, Dickinson, Angleton, La Marque, Seabrook, Santa Fe, Manvel, and Freeport.

TX-14 is comprised of most of two counties: Galveston 51.9% (97.2% of county) and  Brazoria 48.1% (90.2% of county).

Sources of TX-14 (2022): TX-13 69.1%% and TX-22 30.9%.

Distribution of TX-14 (2012): TX-14 63.8%, TX-36 30.1%, TX-27 4.8%, and TX-2 1.4%.

The district sheds Jefferson and picks up parts of northern Brazoria and Galveston parties.

In 2020, TX-14 was Trump 58.5%, Biden 39.9%. The current district was Trump 59.0%, Biden 39.5%. It is a bit surprising the change was so small given losing Jefferson, which is historically Democratic leaning but tending to be competitive, while the suburban areas added are becoming more Democratic.

Randy Weber lives in Alvin, where he relocated after his election after Ron Paul's retirement. He previously had been a city council member in Pearland, so he could choose to live there.

[jimrtex]

TX-15 is in South Texas including most of Hidalgo County.



Its electorate is 99.6% of the ideal. Its VAP is 1.173 of the average. Its population is 1.459 of the average.

VAP that is greater than average indicates relatively low performance due to either higher non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or lower turnout. Population that is greater than average indicates a combination of fewer eligible voters (less citizens or fewer adults (over 18) or lower turnout). That population is so much higher indicates low turnout.

VAP: Hispanic 84.5%, White 13.6%, Asian 0.8%, Black 0.8%.

Largest cities are McAllen, Edinburg, Mission, Pharr, Weslaco, San Juan, Alamo, Alton, Alice, Donna, Rio Grande City, Hidalgo, La Homa CDP, Roma, and Pleasonton.

TX-15 is comprised of ten counties and almost all of an eleventh: Hidalgo 74.5% (97.5% of county), Atascosa 6.3%, Starr 6.1%, Jim Wells 4.7%, Karnes 1.8%, Live Oak 1.8%, Duval 1.7%, Zapata 1.3%, Brooks 0.9%, Jim Hogg 0.7%, McMullen 0.2%, Anderson 0.0%,

Sources of TX-15 (2022): TX-15 57.9%, TX-28 26.5%, TX-34 15.6%.

Distribution of TX-15 (2012): TX-15 70.3%, TX-27 27.4%, TX-34 2.3%.

The district gains almost all of Hidalgo.

In 2020, TX-15 was Biden 53.7%, Trump 45.4%. The current district was Biden 50.4%, Trump 48.5%. So the district is a bit more Democratic. Based on the presidential results at least, it may be difficult to show racially polarized voting in a district that is 85% Hispanic.

Vicente Gonzalez could be vulnerable to the right Republican candidate, though the district is slightly more favorable to him.

[jimrtex]

I've redone the demographic statistics based on the 2020 Census Data, and have added some other information. I will be reposting the districts.

[jimrtex]

TX-1 is in Deep East Texas



TX-1 is comprised of 10 whole counties: Smith 34.4%, Gregg 16.5%, Angelina 11.9%, Harrison 10.2%, Nacogdoches 9.2%, Rusk 7.4%, Panola 3.9%, Shelby 3.5%, Marion 1.7%, and San Augustine 1.4%,

Largest cities are Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Marshall, Kilgore, and Henderson.

Sources of TX-1 (2022) are TX-1 98.3%, and TX-4 1.7%

Distribution of TX-1 (2012) is TX-1 93.6%, TX-4 4.6%, and TX-36 1.8%

Its electorate is 100.3% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.943 of the average. Its population is 0.929 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either higher eligibility or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

Adult: 76.2% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 62.3%, Black 17.0%, Hispanic 16.0%, Other 3.5%, Asian 1.3%.
All Ages: White 58.6%, Hispanic 19.0%, Black 17.1%, Other 4.1%, Asian 1.2%.

(I use a different definition than DRA. Anyone with two or more races is included with Other. DRA considers anyone who is Black and White, or Asian and White, to be Black and Asian, respectively (one drop rule).

Housing vacancy rate: 11.9% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).
Higher vacancy rates may simply represent lake houses, beach houses, acreages, hunting leases, etc., or in small towns or rural areas, housing that is no longer used).

Persons per household: 2.55 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 3.4%, Prison 1.1%, Colleges 1.3%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

College group quarters includes dorms, but not apartments or persons living at home. TX-1 has several prisons particularly in Rusk County. The college population would be largely at Stephen F Austin (SFA) and to a lesser extent UT Tyler.

In 2020 TX-1 was 70.7% Trump, 28.0% Biden. Louis Gohmert (R) would win re-election in this district.

[jimrtex]

TX-2 is in northern, northeastern, eastern, and southeastern Harris County with a bit in Galveston County.



TX-2 is comprised of parts of 2 counties: Harris 98.5% (17.4% of county) and Galveston 1.5% (2,8%) of county.

Largest cities (places) are Houston (part, Kingwood and Clear Lake), Atascocita CDP, Spring CDP, Baytown, La Porte, Deer Park, Seabrook, Pasadena (part), and Webster.

Sources of TX-2 (2022) are TX-2 48.8%, TX-36 34.6%, TX-18 9.5%, TX-8 3.5%, TX-22 1.5%, TX-14 1.5%, TX-29 0.5%

TX-2 shifted clockwise, gaining the area along the eastern boundary from TX-36 as that district was pushed out of the county, and giving up the arm that swings down into central/near west Houston. This is more aligned with the pre-2012 version of the district, at least the Harris County part. TX-2 was historically an east Texas district which has now been sucked into Harris County.

Distribution of TX-2 (2012) is TX-2 40.3%, TX-18 33.6%, TX-10 15.0%, TX-7 8.6%, TX-29 2.5%.

Most of the area lost is in the western arm that swings down into central/near west Houston.

Its electorate is 99.7% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.916 of the average. Its population is 0.926 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is even less than the VAP indicates higher turnout in a largely suburban district.

Adult: 74.2% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 48.5%, Hispanic 27.6%, Black 15.2%, Asian 4.7%, Other 4.0%,
All Ages: White 44.7%, Hispanic 30.8%, Black 15.8%, Other 4.5%, Asian 4.4%.

Housing vacancy rate: 6.9% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).
Higher vacancy rates may simply represent lake houses, beach houses, acreages, hunting leases, etc., or in small towns or rural areas, housing that is no longer used).

Persons per household: 2.81 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 0.6%, Prison 0.3%, Colleges 0.0%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

In 2020 TX-2 was 57.2% Trump, Biden 41.4%. This is decidedly more Republican than the current TX-2 which was Trump 49.9%, Biden 48.6%. I don't know where Dan Crenshaw (R) lives but he could easily win re-election even without moving. His district offices are in Kingwood and Spring, both of which remain in the district. He could conceivably establish an office in southeast Harris County, such as in La Porte.

[jimrtex]

TX-3 is in southern Collin, with a tiny bit in Denton County.



TX-3 is comprised of parts of 2 counties: Collin 95.9% (56.6% of county) and Denton 4.1% (2.8% of the county).

Largest cities are Plano, Allen, Dallas (portions in Collin and Denton counties), Richardson (portion in Collin County), Murphy, Princeton, and Fairview.

Sources of TX-3 (2022) are TX-3 91.1%, TX-24 4.1%, TX-4 3.1%, and TX-32 1.8%.

Distribution of TX-3 (2012) is TX-3 61.2%, TX-39 38.3%, TX-5 is 0.5%.

Most of the new district is in the current district, but a substantial portion of the current district was lopped off in the formation of TX-38, The areas lost are more Republican leaning, and the small areas that have been added are generally along the southern edge.

The boundary between TX-3 and the new district TX-38 is along city limits with Plano and Allen to the south, and Frisco and McKinney to the north. The district was extended into Denton County to include the small portions of Dallas and Plano in that county. This was primarily done for population balancing reasons. Similarly, the lightly populated eastern part of the county was included in TX-3 for population balancing reasons.

Its electorate is 100.0% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.856 of the average. Its population is 0.837 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is even less than the VAP indicates higher turnout in a largely suburban district.

Adult: 76.7% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 51.6%, Asian 19.2%, Hispanic 14.6%, Black 10.3%, Other 4.2%.
All Ages: White 48.4%, Asian 19.7%, Hispanic 16.3%, Black 10.6%, Other 5.0%.

Housing vacancy rate: 5.3% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).
This is among the lowest in the state. It is a suburban area with new housing that is in good condition.

Persons per household: 2.60 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 0.7%, Prison 0.0%, Colleges 0.5%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

In 2020 TX-3 was Biden 50.4%, Trump 47.8%. The current district was Trump 49.6% Biden 48.6%, so the district shifted 1.8% towards the Democrats. On the other hand, the incumbent Van Taylor, who lives in Plano was re-elected on a 55.1% to 42.9% margin. His opponent may have been hurt by the fact that she only registered in the district in December 2019 at the filing deadline. She had voted in 2016 and 2018 at her parents home in Dallas, while living and working in California. Her husband was still registered in Placer County.

[jimrtex]

TX-4 is in northeast Texas.



TX-4 is comprised of 16 whole counties and a portion of a 17th: Grayson 20.5%, Hunt 13.3%, Bowie 13.2%, Wood 7.8%, Lamar 7.3%, Upshur 6.5%, Hopkins 5.5%, Fannin 5.2%, Cass 4.8%, Titus 3.6%, Rains 2.1%, Red River 2.0%, Morris 1.9%, Collin 1.9% (1.1% of whole county), Camp 1.7%, Franklin 1.7%, and Delta 0.9%.

Largest cities are Sherman, Texarkana, Greenville, Denison, Paris, Mount Pleasant, Sulphur Springs, Anna, and Bonham.

Sources of TX-4 (2022) are TX-4 90.3%, TX-1 4.9%, and TX-5 4.8%.

Distribution of TX-4 (2012) is TX-4 75.4%, TX-5 16.5%, TX-38 4.1%, TX-3 2.6%, and TX-1 1.4%.

Historically TX-4 was west of TX-1 and designed to keep Sam Rayburn and Wright Patman in separate underpopulated districts. After the OMOV decisions, the districts were expanded to the south, with TX-4 sweeping east to Tyler and Longview, and TX-1 wrapping around it. At that time, TX-3 which had been south of the two was moved into Dallas County and has since drifted north into Collin County.

In the 1991 Democratic gerrymander, TX-4 was drawn as a Republican sink that would continue to elect Democrat Ralph Hall, while pulling out Democratic areas in cities like Tyler and Greenville so that TX-1 and TX-5 might continue to elect Democrats.

The 2003 Republican map rotated TX-4 and TX-1, but kept Rockwall in the district as an inducement for Ralph Hall to switch parties, and to elect a Republican from TX-1. John Ratcliffe was also from Rockwall. When Ratcliffe resigned to become Director of National Intelligence, Pat Fallon was chosen by precinct officials to become the Republican nominee.

Fallon's original political foray was as a city councilman from the Denton County portion of Frisco. He then was elected from a Denton County Texas House district, which he may have moved into. He then was elected to the Texas Senate from a district that overlaps TX-4 but is somewhat more westerly, and also required him to move to be in the district.

If he had had to run in the primary for TX-4 his living outside the district might have been a fatal liability. He has since changed his residence to Sherman. It could make more sense to run for election in the new TX-38 which is focused on Frisco, and leave TX-5 as an open seat.

Its electorate is 100.1% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.923 of the average. Its population is 0.902 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout).

Adult: 76.8% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 71.7%, Hispanic 12.0%, Black 10.3%, Other 5.1%, Asian 0.9%,.
All Ages: White 68.2%, Hispanic 14.6%, Black 10.3%, Other 5.9%, Asian 0.9%.

Housing vacancy rate: 12.0% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).
A higher vacancy rate may be due to rural and smaller towns having housing that is not definitively abandoned, but considered functionally obsolete. There may also be second homes on many of the lakes in the area, or eventual retirement homes for residents of the Dallas area.

Persons per household: 2.55 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 2.6%, Prison 1.3%, Colleges 0.5%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

In 2020 TX-4 was 76.6% Trump, 22.2% Biden. Pat Fallon could win re-election in this district, if not challenged in the primary as an interloper. He could also run in the new TX-38 making this an open seat.

[jimrtex]

TX-5 is the southern and eastern suburbs and exurbs of Dallas.



TX-5 is comprised of five whole counties and parts of two others: Ellis 29.7%, Kaufman 19.6%, Rockwall 18.7%, Henderson 12.6%, Collin 9.9% (5.8% of county), Van Zandt 9.0%, and Dallas 0.5% (0.2% of county).

Largest cities are Wylie, Rockwall (part in Rockwall County), Waxahachie, Midlothian, Forney, Ennis, Fate, Terrell, Red Oak, and Athens.

Sources of TX-5 (2022): TX-5 41.8%, TX-6 29.7%, TX-4 19.8%, TX-32 8.0%, and TX-3 9.7%.

Distribution of TX-5 (2012): TX-5 42.6%, TX-33 33.9%, TX-32 14.9%, TX-39 13.7%, and TX-4 5.0%

Generally, TX-5 is pushed out of Dallas County, while adding Ellis, Rockwall, and a small part of Collin. Also areas more remote from the DFW area are lost.

Its electorate is 99.5% of the ideal. Its VAP is 0.866 of the average. Its population is 0.883 of the average.

VAP that is less than average indicates relatively high performance due to either less non-eligibility (mostly non-citizens) or higher turnout. Population that is less than average indicates a combination of more eligible voters (more citizens or more adults (over 18) or higher turnout). That the population is even less than the VAP indicates higher turnout in a largely suburban district.

Adult: 73.6% (range for all districts is 70.5% to 79.1%, median is 75.5%)

VAP: White 65.1%, Hispanic 18.6%, Black 10.0%, Other 4.2%, Asian 2.1%.
All Ages: White 61.1%, Hispanic 21.6%, Black 10.4%, Other 4.8%, Asian 2.1.

Housing vacancy rate: 8.3% (range for all districts is 5.1% to 15.8%, median is 8.4%).

Persons per household: 2.88 (range for all districts 2.33 to 3.25, median 2.67)

Group Quarters Population: 1.2%, Prison 0.5%, Colleges 0.2%.
Statewide average: 2.1%, Prison 0.9%, College 0.5%.

In 2020, TX-5 was Trump 69.0%, Biden 29.6%. The current district was 60.8% to 37.9%. The incumbent Lance Gooden lives in Terrell and would easily be re-elected.