Pennsylvania's Swing 1932-1936

[jimrtex]

The elimination of the quasi-poll tax may be the key.  The 1934 Senate election had slightly higher turnout than the 1932 presidential vote, while 1930 election had a senate race with turnout under 2 million.

Other factors:

The 1932 turnout was depressed relative to 1928.  More persons may have been displaced because of the Depression.  Residency requirements were probably longer; absentee voting if possible, much harder (the 1st time I voted absentee, I needed a notary for the application).   Or voters may have been discouraged.   The GOP vote was down 600,000; while the Democrat vote was only up 200,000.  By 1936, people who had moved for employment might have become more settled, and more people may have been willing to support Roosevelt.

Voting age growth.  The native-born population over 21 appears to have grown about 30% between 1930 and 1940.  You would have seen children of pre-WWI immigrants reaching majority.  Any child immigrants from that era, may have naturalized with their family, and grown up as Americans.  A goal of American education was to teach citizenship.

Increased participation rates.  Even with female suffrage, older women might not have voted.  Over time it would become more of the norm to vote.  Since spouses usually voted the same way, wives could have been encouraged to vote, effectively doubling your household's voting power.   Labor unions would have encouraged workers (and their families) to vote.

Increased literacy.  Universal elementary education would have made an increasing share of the voters literate in English.  Even if there was no formal literacy requirement, illterates would be less likely to vote.  Persons less proficient in English would be less likely to vote.

End of Probhibition.  If bars were open on election day, the traditional trading of votes might have occurred.  If bars were closed on election day, drinkers would have been made aware the day was special.

Radio.  Voters would have become more aware of political issues, especially among those who could not read newspapers, and were dependent on word of mouth.

[jimrtex]

Very interesting by the way, I'd been wondering why the Reps held Pa. in 1932.

The Democrats had invaded Pennsylvania during the Civil War.

[jimrtex]

That said, I think you're right that there's more than just one factor at play in a result change that big. The part about the voting age demographic change was something I had considered, but hadn't looked into yet and that is interesting. Thanks for the information.

The following has queryable census data from past censuses.  It is sometimes hard to use because the questions varied from census to census.

Historical Census data