Wales 2007 (National Assembly Elections) (user search)
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jimrtex
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« on: December 04, 2005, 12:32:46 AM »

After some checking on the Wales Boundary Commission, I have come to the conclusion that there will be boundary changes and these should be in time for the 07 Assembly elections.
The Boundary Commission submitted their report to the Secretary of State in January.  He has the option of proposing modifications, but both plans have to be considered by Parliament.  If they reject the Boundary Commission plan, the could consider an alternative by the Secretary.

Had the government chosen to, the new boundaries could have been used for the Parliament election last year.  The final report from the Scotland Boundary Commission was submitted about the same time, and the new boundaries were used in May.

Speculating, the government probably didn't want the Wales boundaries to be out of sync with the English boundaries, while at the same time they wanted to lock in the reduction of seats for Scotland.

The Scottish commission completed their recommendations very early, allowing time to digest the knock-on effect of reducing the size of the Scottish Parliament.  This in turn resulted in the decoupling of the Westminster and Holyrood constituencies, so that the new Westminster constituencies could be used in 2005, while the old Westminster constituencies will continued to be used for Holyrood through 2007.

The Wales commission was careful not to increase the number of Westminster constituencies, even going so far as to create a inter-county seat to avoid an addition.  This permits the new boundaries to be used in 2007 with little effect on the overall AMS mechanism.
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jimrtex
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Posts: 11,817
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2005, 04:25:36 AM »

I don't believe so. My understanding of this issue is that all boundary changes should enter force in the same election. They did not in Scotland because special dispensation was given by an Act of Parliament to reduce the number of seats in Scotland an election early (because of its independent legislative powers).

Its not uncommon for much of the country to report quite early with its boundary recommendations - many of the Home Counties have been reported for over a year now - but generally all must take effect at one election only.
The 4 boundary commissions operate independently, with the filing of their last report to the Secretary of State determining the deadline for their report for the next general review (8 to 12 years later).   The reports that the English commission have been preparing for various counties could be considered final chapter drafts for their complete report.  Once they have finished with all of England, all the local reports will be bound together to form the report for England which will be submitted to the Secretary of State and Parliament.

I'm sure that there is some sort of coordination between the commissions as far as their activities, and the government can manipulate the laying of the reports before Parliament.  The 4th general reviews for Scotland and Wales were completed in December 1994, but the government waited until the English review was completed in April 1995 before placing all 3 reviews before Parliament (so that they would take effect at the next election).  IIRC, the Tory majority at the time was almost non-existent so that an election could have been held at any time.   The Northern Ireland review was completed in June 1995, and went directly to Parliament.

Dates of Last (4th General) Reviews (report submitted to government):

England April 1995
Northern Ireland June 1995
Scotland December 1994
Wales December 1994

The the 5th Reviews are (were) due between 8 and 12 years after the last report.

When 5th Review Began:

England February 2000
Northern Ireland May 2003
Scotland June 2001
Wales December 2002

The boundaries are based on the electorates at these dates, which produces some curiosities. 

The Scotland boundaries are based on 2001 electorates, but the English electoral quota of a year earlier.  The new English constituencies which might first be used in 2010, will be based on 10 year old data. 

The English (parliamentary) boundary commission has been waiting for the LGCE to complete its re-warding of local governments before beginning their own reviews.   The ward boundaries are based on more current electorates (at the start of the local review).  The boundary commission then has to determine what the 2000 electorates would have been if the new ward boundaries had existed then.

Some areas of the English review were delayed waiting for the LGCE to complete its local reviews.  The scope of the LGCE reviews were also changed from merely boundary review, but also consideration of other electoral arrangements (size of councils, multi-member wards, and so on).  The LGCE might do a review for a unitary authority, but not for its former county.  Or once it redid district council wards, it would immediately do the county council divisions based on the district wards.  The BCE wanted to do the UA and adjacent counties at the same time, and the division review simply delayed the LGCE from more completing reviews of more utility for the BCE.  Later the two bodies began to coordinate their efforts more.  The LGCE would do reviews of UAs and their former counties at about the same time, and put off their division reviews until later.

The BCE also had to suspend public operations during the two general elections.

The English commission started their effort early due to the large effort.  By spreading the reviews out, they can maintain a relatively small long-term staff.   If all goes well, their final recommendations (for Greater Manchester) will be issued in April 2006, with the complete report issued somewhat later.

Scotland started their review next, perhaps in part because of the radical changes that would need to be made.  They made their initial recommendations for all of Scotland.  This makes sense because of the reduction of constituencies, and the relatively small size of local authorities (In England counties typically contain a half dozen constituencies, so that the counties can be used to compartmentalize the process).

The Scotland Act established that Westminster constituencies would be used for Holyrood, and also based the number of regional seats as a proportion (56/73) of the number of constituencies.  It also established that the next Westminster boundary review would use the English electoral quota, which is what produced the reduction of Scottish Westminster constituencies.   The same was done in the Government of Wales Act for Wales, except that there was no change to the electoral quota for Wales, which continues to use its own independent quota.

Once the Scottish boundary commission made its preliminary recommendations in February 2002, the Scottish Secretary began a consultation as to what to do about the constituencies for the Scottish Parliament.  If the new Westminster boundaries had been used, the number of MSPs would have been reduced from 129 to 105.  Ultimately the government decided to decouple the two sets of constituencies (Westminster retains authority for the electoral arrangements for the Scottish Parliament).

The Scottish commission then went ahead with their review, holding hearings and essentially having completed their effort by late 2003.  The legislation decoupling the two sets of constituencies was passed in summer 2004.  This also relieved the commission of having to review the region boundaries as part of their Westminster review.  The Scottish commission submitted their report to the Secretary of State on November 30, 2004.  HM issued the order putting the new boundaries in place on February 9, 2005.

Note, the Scottish Commission can make interim recommendations, and thus could propose modifications to the Westminster boundaries to take into account the new ward boundaries in Scotland (Glasgow happens to have 21 wards, which is coincidentally a multiple of the 7 constituencies that Glasgow has).

The Wales commission started relatively early, and made its initial recommendations for the entirety of Wales.  They may have acted early just in case there would be knock-on effects for the Assembly.  There were none since the number of constituencies remained at 40.  They did update the Assembly electoral regions as part of the review.  Their report was given to the Secretary of State in December, but he chose not to place it before Parliament prior to the general election.

Another factor in the dates that the Wales and Scotland commissions issued their reports may have been in consideration of the local government boundaries.  If the report is issued more than 10 years after the report for the previous review, they have to take account of the local boundaries as of the 10th anniversary of the previous report.  If the report is issued earlier, the local boundaries as of the date of the report are used.  This in effect makes a moving target.

The Northern Ireland commission started last, and has been taking a fairly leisurely pace, given they only have 18 seats, and have made revisions primarily to balance electorates.

The next general review could conceivably be more coordinated, especially if the reformer/tinkerer Blair is still PM (at time new legislation was passed).  The boundary commissions will move to boundary committees under the Electoral Commission as soon as they complete their current reviews.  And there is not a particular reason that a common schedule and electoral quota could not be used for the entire country (other than Labours dominance of Wales).  Reduction of the number of constituencies in Wales could trigger changes for use with the Assembly for Wales, similar to those made in Scotland.  In Wales, the ratio of regional to constituency seats could be increased so as to maintain the number of AMs.  The current 1:2 ratio doesn't do a very good job of producing proportionality, especially with 4 parties.

The following is an exchange in February 2005 about when the Wales recommendations would become effective

Mr. Wiggin: To ask the Deputy Prime Minister what dates he has planned for implementing the recommendations of the Boundary Commission in Wales. [214526]

Mr. Raynsford: The Office of the Deputy Prime Minister received the Report of the Welsh Parliamentary Boundary Commission on Monday 31 January. By statute, we are obliged to lay this report before Parliament, together with a draft Order in Council giving effect to the new constituencies, as soon as may be after receiving it, and if Parliament approves the draft, to submit that draft to Her Majesty in Council. Subsequently the Order will be made and come into force immediately thereafter or at such later date as may be provided for in the Order.

I think the response translates to "sooner or later or whenever"
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