Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/1070837517405077504

Chris Eason's vote was witnessed by a Ginger Eason at the same address.

Ginger Eason delivered her own ballot , along with that of Virginia Kay Eason same address (Ginger indicated that she was Virginia's daughter).

Ginger Eason was also the witness for Michael Eason at the same address.

[jimrtex]

Again, the fraud here cannot be proven or disproven purely by looking at the stats. The stats can be useful to a) get some indication whether something strange happened and whether an investigation is warranted and b) assuming the wrongdoing is shown, to get some idea of its scale. But actual finding of wrongdoing would have to primarily rely on establishing what happened on the ground: affidavits, testimony, paper trail, etc.

If all there were to go by were the statistical anomalies, in the absence of other evidence I would still argue that Harris should be seated. I mean, one could imagine that there indeed was an efficient vote-by-mail operation on one side, and that could account for many of the apparent anomalies. Alas, it seems, evidence is rapidly accumulating that law was violated. And that evidence cannot be overturned by explaning away statistical anomalies. At this point, it seems, not only repeating the election, but also criminal prosecution may be warranted.

Ag, if you compare the relative share of absentee votes to total votes, Bladen County Democrats and Republicans are EQUALLY efficient, at around 6.6% and 6.7% of the votes in congressional elections. The only group that is higher is Yancey County Democrats.

The "anomaly" is not an interparty difference, but rather Bladen relative to other counties.

It is not atypical for these numbers to be around 1% or 2%, though there were a few counties, generally more urban, where it pushed 3% or 4%. If you can push up the vote total by a few 1000 votes it is worth the effort.

In 2016, Roy Cooper won the Democratic nomination for Governor by a 68.7% to 31.3% margin, over Kenneth Spaulding. Not too surprising since Cooper was the sitting AG at the time.

Statewide, 1.7% of Cooper's votes were vote by mail. 1.6% of Spaulding's were vote by mail.

In Bladen County, Spaulding received 62.9% of the vote, to 37.1% of the vote for Cooper.

Bladen County was Spaulding's best county in the state.

Spaulding did even better than Cooper in the absentee ballots, gaining 74.2% of the vote.

11.5% of Spaulding's Bladen County vote was by absentee, but 6.8% of Cooper's was as well.

Statewide 1.7% of Cooper's votes were absentee, his share in Bladen County was four times as great. Statewide, 1.6% of Spaulding's votes were absentee, his share in Bladen County was 7 times as great.

Spaulding also won the in-person voting, but not by the same margins.

Clearly, Bladen County has a tradition of absentee voting. It can be an effective part of a GOTV strategy. An effective GOTV strategy identifies every supporter, or potential voter, and tries to get them to vote. It doesn't bother trying to convince voters to switch.

In a primary, where voters have less identity with the candidates, it is easier to persuade a voter. A slogan of "four legs good" is meaningless, when there is a pig, a dog, and cat running. They're all good candidates.

Bladen is the fourth largest county in the state (by land area), and very rural, with only 35,000 people. The largest town of Elizabethtown has about 3500 persons. Bladenboro has around 1800, Clarkton and Dublin under 1000. It is also isolated. The nearest TV terrestrial TV stations are in Wilmington, 60 miles away. If you want to GOTV in Bladen County, do you run lots of commercials in Charlotte? MO. Do you even run lots in Wilmington? Probably not because most of the viewers don't live in NC-9.

Bladen has early voting, but only in Elizabethtown. The election day voting in Elizabethtown is depressed relative to the rest of the county. If you can go over to the library and vote any day of the week, including Saturday's for a two week period, why would you wait until November, when the weather might be bad, and there might be a line?

On the other hand if you live in Bladenboro or Dublin, or even more remote part of the county do you take the drive over to Elizabethtown just to vote. If you had other business, you might. But it at least 20 minute drive both ways, so you've shot an hour minimum. Election day takes five minutes. Or do you plan to early vote in Bladenboro, Dublin, or East Arcadia, like you did in 2016, but find out that there will not be early voting at those locations in 2018.

Someone comes around and asks if you will vote for McHarris or Ready or somesuch - they're from Charlotte and you've never heard of either one. If you are black, and your registration is Democrat, and the campaigner is a black Democrat, they will remind you of your duty to vote. If you say that you aren't registered, they'll tell you that is no problem since you can register when you apply for an early ballot, they'll have registration forms with them. You could register if you vote early (in Elizabethtown), but not on election day in your local polling place. The same sort of appeal will work for white voters. The truth is that in Bladen County, the colors for the major parties are black and white, not red and blue. You don't have use the N-word, you can mention "those people".

"I don't know, I've heard it's complicated. I'll probably just vote on election day." (translation - I'll probably go fishing.)  The campaigner explains that it easy, I'll help with the form, and help you when you vote. If you do decide to vote on election day, you can just take your ballot to the polling place.

It is easy to apply for an absentee ballot. The campaigner already has the form with your name and address printed or handwritten in (Democrats appear to use printed forms, Dowless hand written - by the campaigner, not the voter, whose writing probably looks like chicken scratches.). The voter only has to sign the form. The campaigner will take it to the county board. The campaigner can also help with the registration form. It is probably better because the handwriting will be more legible, and the campaigner will know that a PO Box can't be used for a place of residence. The campaigner will also be sure that the voter provides some form of identification, such as the Driver's license or SSN.

Also, near relatives may request an absentee ballot. Near relative includes, spouses, (step)children, (step)parents, grandparents, grandchildren, siblings, mother/father-in law, son/daughter-in law. In a 2016 affidavit, one voter explained that she had applied for herself, her forty-year old daughter, and two 20-year old sons. She didn't receive the ballot for the daughter, because she lived out of state (and since she was forty, she might have done so for decades). When the campaigner came to collect her ballot, she said she hadn't had time to fill out the ballots (plural).

Many voters will receive the ballot, and vote it themselves. But they will need two witnesses. It is not uncommon for two absentee ballots to be returned from a given address, and the voter on one, will be a witness on the other and vice versa. Likely husband and wives witnessing each other. Then the 2nd witness for both will have the same surname, but maybe a different address, so perhaps a son or daughter. Some families appear to have ballot-witnessing parties.

Then comes the complicated process of filling out the ballot envelope. There are two address labels, one with a bar code that are to be stuck on the envelope. Then the voter can check a couple of boxes indicating whether they want a ballot for a runoff, or have a disability and want to get annual absentee ballots, and if so where to send them. Many people prefer to get their mail at a locked PO Box, rather than an unlocked mailbox on the side of the road in a rural area.

Then they have to check a box indicating whether they had two witnesses, or a witnessing notary. And then they have to sign and date the envelope.

If there is an assistant, he fills in his name and his name and address, and signs his name and dates it. Then the witnesses write in their names and addresses and signs it. Or if the witness is a notary, he fills out the notarization affidavit - which means he has to write the name of the voter who he observed, along his stamp, etc.

It is a lot easier if you have campaigners who know what the procedure is. "Take the two labels and stick them here - the one with the bar code goes on the bottom. That's it. Now check this box since you had two witnesses, and sign here. And put today's date - '10/27/18' OK. Give me the envelope and we will sign as witnesses. Now then, put your ballot in the envelope, and seal it. Now you have to take it the county election board in E'town, or you can mail it. Tell you what, give me the ballot, and I can take it by the post office and mail it for you, and make sure it gets post marked."

The NCSBE recommends taking absentee ballots into post offices and getting it hand postmarked. It says that mail placed in outside collection boxes doesn't get postmarked.

[jimrtex]

Why do you keep bringing up different data and not responding to the data I and others bring up? You implied Harris’ 61% in absentee was in line with his ED vote in Bladen. Do you now see it’s a red flag?

The reason why is that I am capable of looking at data and making an independent conclusion.

Others (perhaps including you) have certain prejudices.

You should consider a third category here besides 1) election data and 2) personal prejudices. The third category is artifacts from the reporting and incipient criminal case here which is being heavily investigated and reported on and which led the bi-partisan board of elections to refuse to certify the election.

You haven't made the argument for throwing all of that out and only considering speculative and possibly tendentious interpretations of data in order to reach a conclusion. And it looks like you're choosing not to engage with what's being reported or investigated, and that's confusing.

What is being "reported" is incomplete or biased.

It seems that you are suggesting if something is "reported" it is facially truthful and complete.

Have you spent any time looking at the actual data dumps from the NCSBE?

Have you spent any time comparing the population of the votes cast in different precincts relative to their population?

Did you notice that three One Stop locations from 2016 were not operated in 2018, and that election turnout was up in those precincts relative to 2016, even though overall turnout was down.

Have you looked at past elections results from Bladen County?

Jimtex, you offer generally very good observations on the redistricting board. However, your "analysis" here is bordering on JJ level obstinacy.

Try to concede that the North Carolina Republican party might have a point in saying that things are obviously fishy here?

Did you read about the Democrat who had gone into a consulting business with McCrae Dowless. After the NY Times revealed this, the Democrat resigned his position as a Democratic member of the Bladen County Board of Elections.

It is now being reported that McCrae Dowless gave voters rides to the polls on election day. Do you find that fishy?

[jimrtex]

Funny how R cheerleaders who would vote for a pile of smelly socks with an (R) next to it act as though they’re “persuadable” voters that the Democrats are pushing away.

Anyway, it seems like the bipartisan Board of Elections is likely to call a new election.

You do know that "Bipartisan" is part of the name of the board that the Republican-majority legislature set up over Roy Cooper's veto. He claimed that if it had equal number of Republicans and Democrats that it would thwart his role as chief executive of the state to execute his policy with regard to elections.

He has won a lawsuit in state court getting rid of the "Bipartisan" board, and replacing it with a 5-member Democrat-majority board appointed by Cooper. The decision was stayed, so the "Bipartisan" board could certify the 2018 election results. If a new election is called, it will likely be by the Cooper-appointed board.

[jimrtex]

It appears that questions have arisen on the Democratic side as well: "WBTV investigation reveals absentee ballot work done by Democrat-funded PAC"

This is fake news.

If it were true, the referral letter from the District Attorney for Bladen County to the Wake County DA would have mentioned the Bladen County Public Improvement PAC. Or if the letter did mention the BCPIPAC, CNN would have zoomed in on that sentence, instead of the next sentence that mentions McCrae Dowless.

If it is not on CNN, MSNBC, or in the New York Times or Washington Post it is not true.

Look who did this. Some local TV station in Wilmington.

BTW isn't that Michael Cogdell the person who was videoing inside the One Stop location in the 2016 election, and then took it outside to show to Horace Munn of BCPIPAC?

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/KristinWSOC9/status/1071442184065437698 A Dem apparently.

Yes Lutz resigned after it was reported that he had been in a consulting business with McCrae Dowless. Lutz said he only did it to find out McCrae Dowless's secrets. Now its been reported that Dowless provides rides to the polls. So the scandal widens from absentee ballots to electiond-day.

[jimrtex]

lmbo:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

fwiw, Lutz does come up as a Democrat in a search of NC's voter registrations: https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/

'Things have gotten way out of hand': Bladen Co. Board of Elections vice chair resigns

Lutz was the Democratic chair of Bladen County, who was in a consulting business with McCrae Dowless. Dowless was a Democrat at the time.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1071517270608961542

This seems like a good idea.

Do you remember when the national media was reporting all of the ballots witnessed by groups of people. They had obtained photocopies of the ballot envelopes. They said that they were public record, and anyone could legally go over to county board of elections and made copies.

Here it is.

EXCLUSIVE: Absentee ballot envelopes in North Carolina fit into "a pattern of fraud"

The witness statements are on the back of ballot envelope. The voter's signature is also on the back of the envelope. So unless anybody can go over to the County Board of Elections and photocopy just part of the envelopes, or the envelopes are torn apart, the voter's signature can be photocopied.

Here are ballot envelopes that the NCSBE have released (they have redacted the voter signatures which are in the middle of the page.

Absentee ballot return envelopes obtained from the Bladen County Board of Elections office for the 2018 general election (PDF)

Absentee Envelope

North Carolina apparently does not use a mailing envelope like other states.

The labels that are stuck to the upper left corner, and are printed with the voters name address, etc.

The NCSBE daily produces a file of which absentee ballots have been returned.

North Carolina should eliminate vote by mail except for persons who will be outside the county for the entire election period.

They should make sure that early voting in person is available to every voter in the county. No voter should have to travel outside his voting precinct, unless it less than a short distance (3 or 5 miles, say).

Voters who are confined due to illness or injury should have election officials come to them. I think this is done in France.

 

[jimrtex]

When did Roy Moore get involved in this? Imo

Because I questioned whether that Lutz guy was a Dem. He might be a registered Dem, but closer to something like a Dixiecrat.

Ken Lutz was Prentis Bentson's campaign manager.

[jimrtex]

When did Roy Moore get involved in this? Imo

Because I questioned whether that Lutz guy was a Dem. He might be a registered Dem, but closer to something like a Dixiecrat.

What does that have to do with Roy Moore though?

When Ken Lutz was Prentis Benston's campaign manager, the Benston campaign had to return a $4000 contribution from a registered sex offender. Prentis Benston's opponent in the 2010 Democratic runoff for sheriff was Eric Bryan. His campaign manager was Leslie (McCrae) Dowless, who had a felony conviction.

Both Benston and Bryan were officers (Captain and Lieutenant, respectively) in the sheriff's department. The sheriff Steve Bunn was not running for re-election and actually retired during the election campaign.

Delilah Blanks, a county commissioner, who happened to be Prentis Bentson's former mother-in-law allegedly tried to double vote in the primary. She voted at the early voting location in East Arcadia. And then attempted to vote a second time in Elizabethtown, but was denied. She claimed that she was just testing the system, and had a duty to do so as county commissioner. She said she had discussed the matter with county elections director, who denied any such conversation (the elections director actually runs elections, the board of elections is an oversight body). She was later observed at the Dublin early voting location, but did not attempt to vote.

Sheriff Bunn had endorsed Lieutenant Bryan as his successor, and granted him an unpaid leave of absence to run for sheriff. The county commissioners, on the motion of Delilah Blanks, voted to deny the leave of absence.

Earl Storms was appointed as interim sheriff to fill out the last part year of Bunn's term. Storms had been sheriff from 1976-1994, before Bunn became sheriff.

Storms refused to hire Bryan (apparently a sheriff, even an interim sheriff has the authority to choose his entire staff). There were other stormy relationships with his staff (one deputy resigned because he said he expected to be fired the next day). Some county commissioners wanted to remove Storms, but Storms said only a judge or God could get rid of him.

Earl Storms may be the same Earl Storms who was (apparently) elected as Water&Soil Supervisor. The NCSBE has ordered the Bladen County Board not to certify this race.

You may have heard of the expression "six degrees of separation". In Bladen County, they use a different number. It may be less than one.

[jimrtex]

I sure hope people weren't under the impression that if we started allowing voting by mail, that there would never be any fraud whatsoever, and that if there was we'd just scrap the whole thing. The worst response to this would be to make voting harder just because of a few counties where people/groups have run ballot mills unimpeded because lazy election officials never bothered to investigate or get the authorities to file charges. As has been said in this thread a number of times already, these people did not just appear out of thin air. They have been doing this for years now, and it's been widely known. Why nothing was done until now is anyone's guess.

The appropriate response to this is that the state invest resources into going after people who do this when they receive information about it, not when it hits the news due to possibly tipping a razor-close Congressional election.

There was a state investigation since at least last January. The NCSBE sent out letters to every voter in Robeson and Bladen counties telling them about what is supposed to happen with absentee ballots. It included

The Republican DA for Bladen County had referred three groups to the Wake County DA for investigation (my guess is that the nexus was money coming from groups based in the state capital of Raleigh providing funding). This was a county that as late as 2010 was voting 88% Democratic straight-ticket. Do you think Roy Cooper or Eric Holder would go after a black group?

Malcolm took advantage of the ongoing investigation when the congressional race turned up close. He may have obliterated any chance of getting a thorough investigation.

Remember that Harris had a 3700 vote lead among voters who actually voted in person, where their ID's could be scrutinized, and there were people who could actually see that they were marking their own ballot.

With vote by mail, there are simply too many steps that are outside review by election officials and poll watchers generally.

[jimrtex]

I sure hope people weren't under the impression that if we started allowing voting by mail, that there would never be any fraud whatsoever, and that if there was we'd just scrap the whole thing. The worst response to this would be to make voting harder just because of a few counties where people/groups have run ballot mills unimpeded because lazy election officials never bothered to investigate or get the authorities to file charges. As has been said in this thread a number of times already, these people did not just appear out of thin air. They have been doing this for years now, and it's been widely known. Why nothing was done until now is anyone's guess.

The appropriate response to this is that the state invest resources into going after people who do this when they receive information about it, not when it hits the news due to possibly tipping a razor-close Congressional election.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ballot-harvesting-20181207-story.html

I mean how can ballot harvesting be considered something good? I take the position of the LA time editorial except for the ca21st where it almost certainly flipped it but idc about that. I just don't think people should be allowed to collect another's ballot to deliver it to the election board.

That is interesting that the Democratic-controlled legislature opened the ballot collection loophole.

In Texas, the legislature has been trying to close that loophole, where runners collect dozens of ballots. In Fort Worth, one voter admitted that a harvester had filled out her ballot, but that he knew how she voted. When asked who she voted for, she said the Democrats. It was a non-partisan election. Another voter, who happened to live across the street from the school where he would vote in person, didn't want to vote absentee because it was so convenient to vote in person. But he did remember signing a yellow sheet of paper for some other reason. It happened that a yellow sheet of paper was used for his application for an absentee ballot.

In Texas, people in the elections office or post office tip off the vote-harvesting machines when absentee ballots are put in the mail. The harvesters might "help" the voter by collecting their mail out of their mail box, and bringing it to the voter and then help them fill out the ballot, and returning the ballot.

Vote fraud may be difficult to prosecute, because the voter may be complicit in the fraud. If you received $10 for your ballot, are you going to admit it?

[jimrtex]

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-ballot-harvesting-20181207-story.html

I mean how can ballot harvesting be considered something good? I take the position of the LA time editorial except for the ca21st where it almost certainly flipped it but idc about that. I just don't think people should be allowed to collect another's ballot to deliver it to the election board.

I wasn't talking about that lol

It was in response to jim's musing that we basically disallow absentee voting (mail) in almost all cases except when they are out of county, which is a patently absurd proposal.

Why is it "patently absurd"?

[jimrtex]

oh I just ignored jimtrex lol.

Not sure if you ever read/follow Rick Hasen's stuff, but he wrote this about how Republicans are already using NC-09's election fraud to gin up support for more voting restrictions. The NC GA already added absentee voting to the voter ID law it is passing, which it made very overt attempts to avoid because older, Republican-leaning people disproportionately use absentee voting services. But the point is that voter ID would not have done anything to stop this, but as usual, politicians use crises to justify measures that won't actually fix anything just so they can say they are "working hard" to solve problems:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/north-carolina-election-fraud-voter-id-laws.html

Hasen mentioned True The Vote. When they had a poll watcher at a predominately black early voting location, a Democratic-elected official was called. The next day, the local election officials were mentioning casually noting what a nice swimming pool that the poll watcher had.

[jimrtex]

Because you don't just end a major voting service like absentee voting at the first sign of trouble. Although when it comes to elections, I guess that is a very typical blue avatar response, many of whom never wanted early/absentee voting to begin with.

In North Carolina perhaps 2-3% of voters vote absentee. It is hardly a major voting service.

Try again to provide a reason.

[jimrtex]

lmbo:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

fwiw, Lutz does come up as a Democrat in a search of NC's voter registrations: https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegLkup/

Roy moore was a Democrat when he molested those girls

He was also a far right-wing conservative too. Your point?

That is the point. He's calling Lutz a dixiecrat.

Ken Lutz was Prentis Benston's campaign manager. Prentis Benston was the first black sheriff in Bladen County.

[jimrtex]

Because you don't just end a major voting service like absentee voting at the first sign of trouble. Although when it comes to elections, I guess that is a very typical blue avatar response, many of whom never wanted early/absentee voting to begin with.

In North Carolina perhaps 2-3% of voters vote absentee. It is hardly a major voting service.

Try again to provide a reason.

So, for 2016, 2.5% of the Trump+Clinton's votes is rougly 113,798 votes. Just end that service entirely, without at least trying an aggressive law enforcement strategy first (right - I don't care about muh Cooper and muh Democrat AG, I'm sure the NC GA could get/could have gotten their way if they wanted). No thanks!

I don't know what you'd expect here anyway, I lean heavily towards easy, accessible voting services, so I would never endorse such an approach without exhausting every other approach first. I don't even know why someone neutral to election law would either. It doesn't make any sense. What they did is illegal, and why the law was never enforced here was never addressed, so instead of trying to resolve that problem, we just go and end the service altogether? Wow, what a lazy and, I must say, very conservative approach.

edit: 2016 absentee by mail turnout was 3.8%

4.5 million voted in person in North Carolina in 2016. It must not be easy and accessible if only 4.5 million voted - that seems to be what you are arguing.

When a voter votes in person there can be watched by partisan observers, and (hopefully) neutral election officials that make sure the voter is who they say they are, and that it is the voter who is marking their own ballot. If a voter needs assistance, it can be given by an election judge, or if the assistant is chosen by the voter, there can be some assurance that the assistant is acting as the voter's agent and not the other way around.

Campaigners are free to bring voters who they hope will support their candidates to the polls, but they will be observed when voting.

Now compare with absentee voting. You have campaigners out locating persons who are unlikely to vote, and help them apply for a ballot, and then come back and "witness" them. The witness is supposed to make sure that it is the voter marking the ballot, but not how it is being marked. The witness also bring sample ballots, and sometimes assist the voter - supposedly at the direction of the voter.

It is susceptible to corruption and simply not needed.

I'm not sure why you refer to voting as a "service".

Who is "they" and what did they do that was illegal?

[jimrtex]

Might I suggest something totally outlandish as a hot take?

What's going on right now in NC is actually a sign that the system works if you let it work. What Harris' campaign did was against the law and they got caught and Harris' people look likely to face legal sanction while the election seems extremely likely to head to a revote. Perhaps what it shows is that we really need the eagle-eyed nerds of Data Twitter and the hard-working SBOEs like NCs to solve these suspicious discrepancies when they show up.

^^^^

Agreed to a point: Seems like it would have worked better if they nipped it in the bud after 2016. Didn’t Dowless even testify to the state board about his absentee ballot activities as he was asserting Dems were doing hinky things? Even if charges weren’t filed against him, seems like it was enough to put a stop to it. And again, Harris’ outlier 96% of absentees in the primary- shouldn’t that have been a flag looking forward to the general?

So, yeah, the system *seems* to be working. Finally.

Hakeem Brown got 120 of 121 absentee votes in the primary for sheriff.

[jimrtex]

Might I suggest something totally outlandish as a hot take?

What's going on right now in NC is actually a sign that the system works if you let it work. What Harris' campaign did was against the law and they got caught and Harris' people look likely to face legal sanction while the election seems extremely likely to head to a revote. Perhaps what it shows is that we really need the eagle-eyed nerds of Data Twitter and the hard-working SBOEs like NCs to solve these suspicious discrepancies when they show up.

^^^^

Agreed to a point: Seems like it would have worked better if they nipped it in the bud after 2016. Didn’t Dowless even testify to the state board about his absentee ballot activities as he was asserting Dems were doing hinky things? Even if charges weren’t filed against him, seems like it was enough to put a stop to it. And again, Harris’ outlier 96% of absentees in the primary- shouldn’t that have been a flag looking forward to the general?

So, yeah, the system *seems* to be working. Finally.

I also agree to a point.  It's good that this was caught, but it's obvious it's been going on for some time.  And how many other districts in NC and other states have had similar situations that haven't been caught?

I totally support maximizing the access and convenience of voting, but we also need to maximize election integrity and security.  It's clear that there is a potential for significant abuse of absentee ballots.   I wouldn't support ending absentee balloting, but we need to make it more secure.

How would you make it more secure?

[jimrtex]

BOE might not finish by the 21st.

Harris has intervened in the court action to keep the Bipartisan NCSBE in place.

The stay was until the Bipartisan NCSBE had certified the results. If they don't certify the results it is not known what will happen.

Malcolm's motion specifically said that the hearing would be by the board as "then constituted".

But it would look really bad (to fair-minded persons) if Cooper tried to push his Democrat-dominated board in place before a decision was made.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/NickOchsnerWBTV/status/1070044877298249728

Quite interesting!

Jeff Smith is portrayed as some sort of whistleblower in the general election.

North Carolina election-fraud investigation centers on operative with criminal history who worked for GOP congressional candidate

But in the primary election, Billy Ward, the candidate favored by Jeff Smith, got 55% of all his votes from absentee ballots. Jim McVicker, the  candidate supported by McRae Dowless got 92% of the election day votes, but only 55% of the absentee vote.

McVickers is the incumbent sheriff and this race would include NC7 house voters, where, I assume, Dowless wasn’t offered a $40k bonus. I think McVickers’ opponent was an African American man. Recall the African American woman’s affidavit where she had filled in two local races but left the others (including NC9) blank?

Biily Ward is a Republican. In 2010 he ran as a petition candidate for sheriff. The old sheriff had retired, and two members of his staff, a captain and a lieutenant were running to replace him. Neither got 40% of the vote in the Democrat primary and so there was a runoff. A black Democratic county commissioner Delilah Banks, who was the ex-mother-in-law of Prentis Benston, one of the candidates, tried to vote twice. She voted at one early voting place and then a couple of days later tried to vote an another and was denied. She claimed she was testing the system, and had talked to the elections director about it. He said he hadn't talked to her. She then said that she didn't need the permission of the elections director to test the system, and she had a duty to do so (i.e. it doesn't matter if I had an imaginary conversation, since I didn't need to have any conversation at all).

The opposing candidate, Eric Bryan, had been granted an unpaid leave of absence to run for sheriff by the incumbent sheriff, Steve Bunn. But the county commissioners on the motion of Delilah Banks, voted to deny him a leave of absence. Prentis Benston won the Democratic nomination.

The sheriff who was not running for re-election decided to retire before the end of his term. His replacement was Earl Storms who had been Sheriff from 1976-1994. Storms refused to rehire Bryan and 4 other deputies. When some commissioners wanted to remove Storms, he said that only God and a judge could remove him.

Benston then defeated Ward in the general election to become the first black sheriff of Bladen County.

In 2014, Jeff Smith contributed $5800 to Jim McVicker because Benston had tried so stop Smith's sweepstakes games. McVicker was elected, despite Benston receiving more absentee ballots (11.5% of Benston's votes were absentee, vs 8.0% for McVickers). Despite the campaign contributions from Smith, McVickers suppressed Smith's sweepstakes business. That is the reason given by Smith for supporting Billy Ward and Hakeem Brown in 2018.

In 2018, Ward ran against McVickers in the Republican primary. Ward was easily defeated by McVickers 2089 to 378. But remarkably, 211 of Ward's 378 votes were absentee. McVicker received 91.9% of in-person voted. but only 54.7% of the absentee votes. Dowless supported McVicker, but Smith supported Ward. This supposedly cause the friendship to break.

Meanwhile in the Democratic primary, Hakeem Brown received 120 of 121 absentee ballots. Brown did receive 79.2% of the in person votes, but 99.2% of absentee votes is quite remarkable.

McVickers defeated Brown in the 2018 general election. 6.2% of McVicker's votes were absentee, vs. 6.9% of Brown's.

Who is running the absentee voting mills in Bladen County?

[jimrtex]

Why would Cooper veto that outside of blatant partisan motivation though? There always should’ve been a rerun of the primary in such an instance.

The bill for the primary passed 34:3 and 81:18.

[jimrtex]

Harris personally directed Dowless' hiring despite warnings that he may have used fraud in 2016. They interacted regularly during the primary according to a former Dowless associate, and said associate claims Dowless and Harris spoke often about the "program."

The 2016 congressional primary in June was a stand alone election, because of re-redistricting.

The Democrats did not even have a primary because Christian Cano was unopposed.

In the presidential/senatorial/gubernatorial primary in March 2016, there were only 31 Republican absentee ballots. Meanwhile on the Democratic side there were 543 absentee ballots. Mecklenburg has 30 times the population of Bladen, but only had 3 times the number of Democratic absentees. The absentee votes in Bladen were quite anomalous, with Roy Cooper only getting 25% against an also-ran challenger. Clearly, there were strange things going on in the Democratic primary absentee voting.

A Lieutenant Governor candidate who received 10.5% of the statewide vote, got 76.7% of the absentee vote in Bladen County. A county commissioner candidate got 93.1% of the absentee vote, but only 45.3% of the in-person vote.

In the June congressional primary there was only the congressional race, and only for the Republicans, and only for the part of the county that was in NC-9. Only the most motivated would be likely to vote, especially when the county had been dismembered and attached to Charlotte in western Carolina. The Pittenger TV ads likely weren't running on the Wilmington TV stations. It is hard to get someone out to vote for essentially a special election, when there had been a real primary a few months earlier. Remember that Pittenger finished 3rd in every county other than Mecklenburg. Johnson had been county commissioner in Union County, and Republican chair for NC-8 which included all the counties along the South Carolina border that were transferred into NC-9 - he would have party contacts that Pittenger and Harris who were focused on Charlotte media markets did not have.

If you could identify a supporter who might only vote if they could vote absentee, then it makes sense that the campaign would help them vote absentee. Pittenger? Never heard of him. Harris? Some preacher at a big church in Charlotte. Johnson? County commissioner and Republican Party chair for much of the congressional district.

You leave a campaign card, and complete the absentee ballot application. In a day or two, the ballot arrives. A voter might fill it out himself, except he has to have two witnesses. So someone comes back with two witnesses, and asks if he is ready to vote for Johnson. He gets the ballot and fills it out.

Remember that in Bladen County, Pittenger only got 5.9% of the early vote in Elizabethtown. He managed to get a whopping 10.5% of election day votes.

Jeff Smith, mentioned in the story, is fighting off charges of running an illegal sweepstakes operation. A person can purchase "points" or maybe get them some other way. The gamer can then use the "points" on some random-chance video game, sometimes gaining additional points.

He can then take the points over to a game of "skill" - which has a countdown timer in milliseconds which the gamer can try to match when it gets to zero by clicking with a mouse. If he is close he gets more points which can be redeemed for cash.

Smith was raided in 2013 by Sheriff Prentis Benston, the first black sheriff of Bladen County. Benston's campaign manager in 2010 was supposed Dixiecrat Jens Lutz. Benston's opponent in the Democratic primary was managed by McCrae Dowless. Dowless and Lutz later went into business together. Lutz recently resigned as a member of the Bladen County Board of Elections after his relationship with Dowless came to light. At the time of the 2010 race, claims were exchanged of "Dowless was a felon" and "Oh yeah, you received $4000 from a registered sex offender". Both claims were true. The Benston campaign did return the contribution to the registered sex offender. It was not busybodies from the national press who discovered Dowless's felony conviction.

In 2014, Smith backed Jim McVickers, presumably because the current sheriff had tried to put him out of business. It is a bit murky, but the $5800 contribution from Smith may have gone directly from Smith to Dowless.

Nonetheless McVicker raided Smith's "business" in 2015 just a few months after taking office. McVicker had received complaints from local pastors that their churches were having to take care of families whose parent's had been wagering their money away at Smith's "game with an element of skill". This case is apparently still pending, and Smith has a civil lawsuit against Sheriff McVicker, a sheriff's deputy, and District Attorney Jon David for "illegal taking".  A judge recused David from the criminal case on a theory of vindictive prosecution (i.e. the only reason that you are prosecuting me is because I'm suing you for raiding my business).

Jon David is the first Republican district attorney for a three-county district (Brunswick, Columbus, and Bladen). David was elected in 2010. Dowless was the campaigner for Butch Pope in that race. Pope defeated the incumbent DA Rex Gore in the 2010 Democratic Primary. Pope had a small lead in Bladen County, and a big lead in Columbus County where he lived. Gore led in Brunswick County where he was from, but turnout in the Democratic primary was low there. Brunswick County is on the coast just north of Myrtle Beach, SC, and has attracted a large influx of retirees who have made the county very Republican. David defeated Pope in the general election based on a strong vote from Brunswick County.

Former Democratic DA Rex Gore was indicted in 2012 for knowing that an assistant DA had filed false travel claims of $14,000 for travel between Elizabethtown and Bolivia (the county seat of Brunswick County, not the country in South America). Gore later took a plea deal that left him with his law license.

Jon David is the Republican DA who sent the letter last January to the Wake County DA suggesting an investigation of three groups in Bladen County: Dowless, a PAC associated with Jeff Smith, and the Bladen County Public Improvement PAC, a Democratic group. I suspect that the nexus with Wake County is that these groups have received funding from groups based in Raleigh, the state capital, such as the North Carolina Democratic Party and Red Dome. Remember that Dowless was a Democrat until after the 2016 election. That may be why Roy Cooper or Eric Holder never investigated or prosecuted anyone in Bladen County.

Jeff Smith supported Billy Ward who was challenging McVicker in the Republican primary in 2018. Smith perhaps hoped that Ward would not interfere with his sweepstakes business. Jeff Smith left some handwritten notes at a meeting for Ward saying that he needed unsealed ballots (the note underlined unsealed).

McVicker easily defeated Ward 2,089 to 378, but Ward received 211 of his 378 total votes as absentee (55,8%), Smith who was leaving notes about unsealed ballots was supporting Ward because McVicker had raided his shady sweepstakes business. Hmm.

Smith says that Dowless was his friend, and even let him use an office next to his, but they parted ways because Dowless supported McVicker, the sheriff who raided Smith's business, while Smith supported Ward and the Democratic nominee Hakeem Brown. Brown received 120 of 121 absentee votes (99.2%) in the Democratic primary. hmm.

Ken Simmons was at a Ward meeting, where Dowless was in attendance. Simmons though Dowless was supporting Ward, but Billy Ward says while Dowless attended some meetings he never was a supporter. Simmons says that Dowless claimed to have 800 ballots, but it is more likely that Dowless had 800 absentee applications, many of which were not completed (the Democrats have applications with machine-printed names and addresses, all the voter has to do is sign and date and hand back to the runner for the campaign. The Dowless group appears to use handwritten applications. In any case, you don't want the voter to fill out the application since their handwriting may be illegible. If the county board of elections gets an application for what looks like Mrzmy Vacuumwi at 65%2# Gobbledygook Lane they'll simply discard it (or post it on the bulletin board in the lunchroom).

Ken Simmons is said to be a former sheriff's deputy. He may hold a grudge against McVickers.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/MurphinDC/status/1075060521337016327

Is that McCrae Dowless in these pictures of the Bladen County Democratic Party Headquarters Opening (PDF)

The vote was kind of interesting with one cross-over from each party, the commissioners from District 3.

In 2016, the Bladen County Public Improvement PAC knocked off the Democratic incumbent, Wayne Edge, with a 93.1% share of the absentee vote. The Republican candidate, Ashley Trivette then defeated the Democratic challenger. This gave the Republicans, their second seat on the board. They gained a third seat because the Democrats messed up the voting for the 3 at-large seats, which are elected by limited voting. Under limited voting each voter gets one vote, but the three top vote-getters are elected.

Two Democrats became Republicans, giving the Republicans are 5-4 majority.

In District 3, Wayne Edge now running as a Republican, challenged the Democratic incumbent, Russell Priest. Each of three districts choose two commissioners for four-year terms, with the terms overlapping. Priest, the Democrat incumbent apparently was elected. But the NCSBE said not to certify the race. Priest the Democrat from the district wants his election to be certified, so he crossed over. Meanwhile, Trivette, the Republican from the district still hopes for a Republican win for Edge, so voted for certification.

The fact that the NCSBE said not to certify means one of two things:

1) Malcolm (NCSBE Democrat from Robeson County) sold the Republicans on not certifying NC-9 by offering up a couple of local races (i.e. they are all rotten in Bladen County);

or

2) The BCPIPAC is under serious investigation. The BCPIPAC received $6,000 from the NC Democratic Party, out of a $100,000 contribution from the McCready campaign.

McCready probably won't go to prison since he was essentially a figurehead, who had never voted in a primary before 2017.

[jimrtex]

Harris personally directed Dowless' hiring despite warnings that he may have used fraud in 2016. They interacted regularly during the primary according to a former Dowless associate, and said associate claims Dowless and Harris spoke often about the "program."

Press S to spit on political grave.

S

I bet we could use an anecdote about an unrelated Bladen county election in 2012 about now.

The reason that Jon David, the Republican DA for the district that includes Bladen County, referred the concerns to the NCSBE, was that McCrae Dowless had been working to elect Rex Gore who defeated Jon David in 2006. In 2010, McCrae Dowless was working for Butch Pope who defeated Gore in the primary, David defeated Pope in the general election, based on overwhelming Republican support from Brunswick County.

Rex Gore was subsequently prosecuted for his role as DA, when he approved $14,000 in fraudulent travel expenses by an assistant DA between Elizabethtown and Bolivia. Gore plea bargained for a sentence that left him with his law license.