^ Even more so in the South. Though realignment happens (much more slowly then on federal , and even state level) even locally. Recently i looked at Holmes county, Florida, election results page (this is very white and extremely conservative county in North Florida, where Hillary didn't get even 10% of vote, but registration is only slightly Republican). According to data gathered by. Pres. Griffin, local Democrads still hold a number of local offices in this county. But, looking at 2016 results, i couldn't find a single Democratic victory. Some candidates managed to surpass 40% plank (much better then national party candidates), but still - ....
On the other hand - Liberty county (not far from Holmes) still has about 75-20% Democratic registration, still elects only Democrats (and NPA's) for local offices, AND gave Hillary less then 20% nevertheless....
Liberty is (was) the most Democratic county in Florida. In 2017, it finally passed Gadsden, which is Florida's only majority-black county. Key factors appear to be small rural population; very little growth; not on the Gulf; perhaps proximity to Tallahassee; and maybe a modestly large black population (20%)
In 1995, Republicans in Liberty County were outnumbered 3120 to 103, making Republicans 3% of the electorate. At the time, 12 counties in Northern Florida were under 10% Republican.
By 2002, all 12 counties, except Liberty had exceeded 10% Republican. In Liberty, Republican registration had almost doubled, but Liberty had only reached 5% GOP registration (197R vs. 3437D). The number of Republicans in Liberty had almost doubled, while Democratic registrants only increased about 10%, yet because of their massive number, about 3/4 of the increase was Democratic.
Liberty did not surpass 10% registration until 2008, despite the number of Republicans almost doubling again (419R vs. 3378D). But by that time, there were only six other counties under 20%: Calhoun 16%, Dixie 20%-, Gadsden 13%, Hamilton 18%, Lafayette 19%, and Madison 17%.
By 2017, the Republican numbers in Liberty had almost doubled again, and Democratic numbers declined a bit (733R vs. 3392D). GOP registration is now 16%. But it had also increased in the other low registration GOP counties:
Calhoun 16% to 26%
Dixie 20%- to 37%
Gadsden 13% to 15%
Hamilton 18% to 28%
Lafayette 19% to 34%
Liberty 11% to 16%
Madison 17% to 28%
In 2017, other counties under 30%:
Alachua: 28R:48D (in 1995, it was 30D:60R)
Broward: 22R:51D (in 1995, it was 35R:55R)
Jefferson: 29R:68D.
Leon: 28R:53R (in 1995, it was 26R:64R)
Miami-Dade: 27R:43D (in 1997, it 39R:48D)
Orange: 27D:43R (in 1995, 48R:43D)
Osceola: 24D:44R (in 1995, 43R:47D)
Palm Beach: 28D:43R (in 1995, 40R:48D)
The under 30% counties in North Florida now form a band:
Calhoun, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Jefferson, Madison, and Hamilton.
Since 1995, the following counties have flipped:
1997 Santa Rosa (41R:54D in 1995, to 58R:20D) Massive growth.
1999 Highlands (46R:49D in 1995, to 45R:33D) Long-term Democratic attrition.
2001 Marion (44R:48D in 1995, to 44R:34D) Long-term Democrat attrition.
2001 Monroe (41R:49D in 1995, to 38R:33D) Long-term Democratic attrition.
2001 Orange
to Democratic (48R:43D in 1995, 27R:43D) Hotel jobs?
2002: Citrus (41R:47D in 1995, to 46R:29D) Growth areas expand north.
2003: Nassau (29R:68D in 1995, to 57R:23D) Massive suburbanization.
2005: Bay (33R:60D in 1995, to 52R:27D) High growth.
2005: Escambia (37R:57D in 1995, to 45R:35D) Long-term Democratic attrition.
2006: Sumter (31R:65D in 1995, to 53R:25D) Hyper-massive growth.
2006: Walton (25R:71D in 1995, to 59R:21D) High growth.
2009: Flagler
to Democratic2011: Pinellas
to Democratic2012: Flagler
back to Republican (46R:44D in 1995, to 40R:32D)
2013: Gilchrist (14R:83D in 1995, to 54R:31D) High growth.
2015: Levy (19R:77D in 1995, to 46R:35D) High growth.
2016: Baker (7R:92D in 1995, to 51R:38D) Growth, proximity to Jacksonville?
2016: Washington (12R:86D in 1995, to 50R:37D) Growth, Panhandle?
2017: Bradford (13R:84D in 1995, to 46R:40D) Proximity to Jacksonville?
2017: Columbia (23R:74D in 1995, to 44R:38D)
2017: Gulf (11R:88D in 1995, to 46R:42D)
2017: Hardee (15R:83D in 1995, to 43R:40D) It is not just a North Florida item.
2017: Holmes (6R:93D in 1995, to 53R:36D) Panhandle?
2017: Okeechobee (23R:74D in 1995, to 42R:38D)
2017: Pinellas
back to Republican (47R:41D in 1995, to 35.78R:35.75D)
2017: Suwannee (17R:80D in 1995, 43R:41D) Growth
People ordinarily only change their registration if they move or change their name, so that they can continue to vote. They might change party affiliation if the move is associated with a life event such as getting married, getting divorced, having children, getting a higher status job, losing a job, health issues that is also associated with a change in political outlook.
The massive increase in No Party Affiliation voters is an indication of indifference or alienation, rather than of active independence. There has to be a strong incentive to actually change a party registration. In Florida, it appears that there is a collapse of Democratic registration in a county, when Republicans begin to dominate. At that point, voting in the Democratic primary no longer serves to choose local office holders, let alone legislators, and representatives.
The areas that have seen the sharpest increase in GOP share are high growth areas. For example, in Sumter County, Democratic registration doubled from 1995 to 2017. Meanwhile, Republican registration increased 10-fold. The county switched from 31R:65D in 1995, to 53R:25D in 2017.
The large number of counties that flipped in 2017 was due to the Republican party having reached critical mass; the competitive Republican presidential primary; and the increase in registration associated with a presidential election year.
