Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates.

[jimrtex]

Texas

 


SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    REP   -24
SD 2    REP   -16
SD 3    REP   -27
SD 4    REP   -22
SD 5    REP   -15
SD 6    DEM   13
SD 7    REP   -20
SD 8    REP   -14
SD 9    REP   -12
SD 10   DEM   -6
SD 11   REP   -17
SD 12   REP   -18
SD 13   DEM   31
SD 14   DEM   11
SD 15   DEM   7
SD 16   REP   -9
SD 17   REP   -12
SD 18   REP   -19
SD 19   DEM   3
SD 20   DEM   4
SD 21   DEM   6
SD 22   REP   -20
SD 23   DEM   28
SD 24   REP   -22
SD 25   REP   -17
SD 26   DEM   9
SD 27   DEM   15
SD 28   REP   -26
SD 29   DEM   13
SD 30   REP   -27
SD 31   REP   -32


SD   INC   PVI
SD 13   DEM   31
SD 23   DEM   28
SD 27   DEM   15
SD 6    DEM   13
SD 29   DEM   13
SD 14   DEM   11
SD 26   DEM   9
SD 15   DEM   7
SD 21   DEM   6
SD 20   DEM   4
SD 19   DEM   3
SD 10   DEM   -6
SD 16   REP   -9
SD 9    REP   -12
SD 17   REP   -12
SD 8    REP   -14
SD 5    REP   -15
SD 2    REP   -16
SD 11   REP   -17
SD 25   REP   -17
SD 12   REP   -18
SD 18   REP   -19
SD 7    REP   -20
SD 22   REP   -20
SD 4    REP   -22
SD 24   REP   -22
SD 1    REP   -24
SD 28   REP   -26
SD 3    REP   -27
SD 30   REP   -27
SD 31   REP   -32

Election results tabulated for all districts are available on the Texas state redistricting site.

I'm not sure how to convert them to PVI.

For example, Romney had 58.0% of the statewide 2-way vote, and 72.9% in SD-1.  Do you make the state 50-50, and SD-1 64.9% Romney?   Or is it based on the national PVI vote.

SD-4 is technically vacant, but only Republicans are running in the special election.

[jimrtex]

Texas

SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    REP   -24

Election results tabulated for all districts are available on the Texas state redistricting site.

I'm not sure how to convert them to PVI.

For example, Romney had 58.0% of the statewide 2-way vote, and 72.9% in SD-1.  Do you make the state 50-50, and SD-1 64.9% Romney?   Or is it based on the national PVI vote.

SD-4 is technically vacant, but only Republicans are running in the special election.

https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0Bz_uFI8VY7xLUzlwSXBjbkJjZU0&usp=sharing
I have used this site for Texas which has the 2008 and 2012 results for each senate district.
What I have done for each senate district: [(Obama2008-Mccain2008)/2-3.6 +(Obama2012-Mccain2012)/2-1.95]/2

Those numbers match those from the Texas redistricting site.

So if the results shifted (3.6 + 1.95)/2 = 2.78% towards the Republican presidential candidates, then in SD-1 (which has a PVI of -24%) Obama would have averaged 24% below 50% for the two elections or 26%.  Am I understanding correctly?

[jimrtex]

Now, I will make the House PVI!

The House districts in Texas are different in 2014 than 2012.

[jimrtex]

May be - this link will be of some help:


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/07/09/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts?detail=hide

Don't worry, I already knew this link, but thanks!

Now, I will make the House PVI!

The House districts in Texas are different in 2014 than 2012.

Texas Redistricting

I took a look at the two plans, and they are less interesting than I had thought.

14 districts were changed.

2 in Webb (42, 80)
3 in Tarrant (90, 97, 99)
6 in Dallas (103, 115, and minuscule to 109, 110, 111, 113).
3 in Harris (133, 137, 149)

The most politically significant drops Romney support in HD-115 from 55.37% to 55.26%.  The curiosity is that this is an exchange with HD-103 which takes it from 28.00% Romney to 28.77% Romney.

I'm pretty sure that there were some proposed changes that would simplify boundaries, but shift a district a percent or two in the right direction.   It appears that there was an attempt to prove that the legislature was reasonable, and considered minority interests.  Only four of the 14 districts are Republican.  The biggest political shift was -2.7% in HD-99 (from Romney 27.7% to 25.0%).