Below, I've taken the results from three of the "major" third parties' best performances in the past two election cycles. Does anyone have any explanations as to why these third party/Independent candidates ran so well in these congressional districts? Is there a history of voters giving such high margins to third-party candidates in these districts?
I've interspersed my comments.
Libertarian Party 2008: CA-26
David Dreier (R) 52.64%Russ Warner (D) 40.44%Ted Brown (L) 06.92% Maybe people who are disappointed when they realize that Dreier is a pretty conventional Republican congressman.
2010: CA-28
Howard Berman (D) 69.54%Merlin Froyd (R) 22.42%Carlos A. Rodriguez (L) 08.04%Libertarians with Hispanic names tend to do very well. Some Hispanic voters will vote based on the name, while few Libertarians will not vote for a Libertarian candidate because he has a Hispanic name, and Hispanic voters outnumber Libertarians. The same is not true for Republicans and Democrats, because some voters will not vote for Hispanic candidates, and Republicans and Democrats outnumber Hispanic voters.
Green Party 2008: CA-01
Mike Thompson (D) 68.10%Zane Starkewolf (R) 23.36%Carol Wolman (G) 08.54%Strong Green area on the north coast, and no risk of harm to the Democratic candidate.
2010: IL-04
Luis Gutierrez (D) 77.36%Israel Vasquez (R) 14.32%Richard J. Burns (G) 08.32%This was probably 832 votes. Gutierrez is not personally likable, and no risk of voting for the Green candidate here if you don't want to vote for a candidate simply because he is Puerto Rican.
Constitution Party 2008: UT-03
Jason Chaffetz (R) 65.61%Bennion L. Spencer (D) 28.28%Jim Noolander (C) 06.11%Perhaps some backlash on a personal basis against Chaffetz. Chaffetz was Jewish, but recruited to be the kicker for BYU's football team, and then converted to Mormonism. His father was married to Kitty Dukakis, prior to Kitty marrying Michael Dukakis, and Chaffetz's father remarrying and fathering Chaffetz. Chaffetz was involved slightly in Dukakis' 1988 campaign.
2010: OH-18
Bob Gibbs (R) 53.86%Zack Space (D) 40.49%Lindsey Sutton (C) 05.64%Don't know.
Independents2008: OH-02
Jean Schmidt (R) 44.83%Victoria Wulsin (D) 37.46%David Krikorian (I) 17.70%Jean Schmidt is not a likable person in a strongly Republican district.
2010: OH-17
Tim Ryan (D) 53.89%Jim Graham (R) 30.08%James Traficant (I) 16.03%Traficant was the former congressman, who ran after he was released from prison. He was always a populist and idiosyncratic which has appeal in a working class district (Youngstown).
