US House Redistricting: Minnesota

[jimrtex]

The Twin Cities are of course far smaller than a congressional district in 2020.

True.  But if you are giving respect to county boundaries, it happens that Ramsey-Washington and Hennepin-Anoka are very close to an integer number of districts.

[jimrtex]

Possible configurations:

A) 4-1-2

1) St. Cloud-Outer Metro North, Chisago, Isanti, Benton, Stearns, Benton, Sherburne, and Wright, plus areas to the north and west.  The metro area is shifted south to include Goodhue, Rice, and Le Sueur.
2) Duluth-Grand Forks- Fargo, and coming way south past the the Minnesota River.
3) Southern Minnesota, La Crosse to Sioux Falls, anchored in Rochester and Mankato.

I rather like this.   The 4 metro districts total 4.007.  If you want to equalize a bit more, trim a tiny bit off Anoka (say, Linwood).

You have the cut of Hennepin, and then have to take about 25,000 from the south. 

Some possibilities include

a) Chanhassen, though I don't like splitting it from Chaska.

b) South St. Paul or West St. Paul, with a shift through Ramsey or Washington.

c) Hasting, with a shift through Ramsey or Washington.  I think I prefer Hastings since it is somewhat isolated from most of Dakota, and does cross the Mississippi.

This is based on populations projected to 2015.5 (3.5 years after the redistribution caused by the loss of a representative),

The 4 metro districts have an estimated 2015.5 population of 4.001 representatives.  Le Sueur and Wabasha were shifted to the south district, McLeod to the St.Cloud-Northern Exurbs, and Big Stone and Stevens to the northern district.

2012 and 2015.5 populations:

Northern: 1.017 and 0.998
St Cloud-Northern Exurbs: 1.023 and 1.006
Southern: 1.016 and 0.995
Ramsey-Washington: 0.995 and 1.008
Hennepin-Anoka 1.979 and 2.013
South Metro: 0.970 and 0.980

[jimrtex]

Possible configurations:

B) 4-3

1) Duluth-Northern Exurbs-St.Cloud
2) Western Minnesota - Manitoba to Iowa, with a somewhat irregular border.
3) Southeastern Minnesota.

This version exchanges St.Cloud for Brainerd and Bemidji.  Like the previous version this will require about 27,000 persons shifted from Sherburne to the metro area.

This map is optimized for projections for 2015.5 (3.5 years from 2012).

Because the southern and western ring of Dakota-Scott-Carver-Wright is so close to ideal the adjustment is made in the north.   In the 2012 map, this area shared about 25,000 persons from Sherburne.  In the 2015.5 map it will need to borrow about 15,000 from Anoka.

Other changes from 2012 map:

West to South: Cottonwood
Northeast to West: Wadena and Clearwater

Population for 2012 and 2015.5

Southern: 1.011 and 0.995
West: 1.019 and 0.997
Northeast: 1.005 and 0.984
Hennepin-Anoka: 1.979 and 2.013
Ramsey-Washington: 0.995 and 1.008
South+West Metro: 0.991 and 1.004

[jimrtex]

Possible configurations:

C) 4-3

1) Duluth-Northern Exutbs and points west.
2) St. Cloud to southwest corner.
3) Southeastern Minnesota.

This shifts Wright to the St.Cloud-Southwest district.  I think this is the best configuration for such a district, avoiding going north to Fargo, or east to Wisconsin.  To compensate for the the loss of Wright, the south metro district will need about 135,000 from either Hennepin or Washington, which forces the other districts to take in the northern exurbs.

If Ramsey-Washington is maintained, then Hennepin will need to be double chopped.

The alternative which is implied by this map is to create the Minneapolis-St.Paul district.   That will require a Ramsey split, and likely Washington and Anoka splitts.

Because Wright is necessary for a St.Cloud-Southwest district that does not extend to Wisconsin border, the 4 metro districts must extend somewhat northward. 

In 2015.5 the 4 metro districts will included 4.010 an increase from 3.956 for 2012.  If a Minneapolis-St. Paul district is created, with the remnant of Ramsey added to the norhern district, then one or two districts will need to take a portion of Anoka or Washington.

Changes from 2012 map: St.Cloud-Southwest to Southeast: Cottonwood; St Cloud-Southwest to North Big Stone and Stevens; North Metro to St..Cloud-Southwest: Mille Lacs and Kanabec.

Population 2012 and 2015.5

North 1.017 and 0.998
St.Cloud-Southwest 1.015 and 0.997
South 1.011 and 0.005
North Metro 0.913 and 0.915
Hennepin-Ramsey 2.218 and 2.259
South Metro 0.825 and 0.836

[jimrtex]

Possible configurations:

D) 3-4 corners.

53% of Southeast is in Dakota
31% of Southwest is in Scott+Carver
36% of Northwest is in Wright+Stearns
28% of Northeast is in Sherburne+Isanti+Chisago



Hennepin East includes Minneapolis, St.Anthony, Richfield, Bloomington, Edina, St.Louis Park, Golden Valley, Robbinsdale, Crystal, New Hope, and Eden Prairie.