TX: +3D, +1R(VRA will mandate new Hispanic majority districts)
TX: +3R +1D
The Supreme Court rejected a district that ran from the Rio Grande to Austin with the mere purpose of having a Hispanic majority. The district court largely rejected districts that ran from the Rio Grande Valley to San Antonio. Cuellar's district includes a very small portion of Bexar County. Canseco's district includes West Texas simply because it had to go somewhere, and it is lightly populated.
There simply is not the population on the border to draw another district. But there has been enough growth to consolidate the districts. You split Corpus and Brownsville. The Brownsville district will have to go into Hidalgo to get enough population. The Hidalgo district may have to move a bit west. And then you add places like Maverick and Zavala to Cuellar's district. The Corpus district then includes areas to its north.
Before last week, that would have been a Republican pickup. Now it is simply a hold. And the Cameron-based seat is likely a Democratic gain.
You then add 1 seat each in the DFW, Houston, and Central Texas. In the Houston area, the Green, Green, and Jackson Lee seats barely have enough population as it is. So the new seat is a Republican seat in the suburbs. You shift the Doggett seat into Travis County, and then the new seat goes to the east. It could even end up being the Flores seat. Carter's seat comes south. And you create a seat starting in Bell and McLennan county heading north. That is another Republican seat. In the DFW area, the extra seat goes in the northern suburbs.
