TX State House & Senate Elections - 2010

[jimrtex]

State Senate
Uncontested (8 R, 0 D)
SD-22* (R)

This might be contested.  The special election (runoff Today) is for the remainder of the current term.  Since the winner of the Republican primary withdrew (and there were no other primary winners) all parties can designate a new candidate.  OTOH, Democrats might figure that a contested race might draw more voters who will vote against Edwards.

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Ogden said he was going to retire, and then got back in the race.

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Prime example of Texas seat held by Democrat until 2006.  Armbrister was the one Democratic senator who did not flee to Santa Fe.  He is now Governor Perry's legislative director, and the Democrats did not bother to run a candidate in a seat that he had held since 1986.

[jimrtex]

State House

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Or arrogant.

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Under the redistricting plan proposed in the House in 2001, the coastal areas of Nueces County would have been connected via Corpus Christi Bay and the Nueces River to counties in interior South Texas (Jim Wells, Duval, etc.).   Nueces County only had a bit more than enough population for 2 districts, and was losing population share, so that a district that had been 1/2 in the county in 1990 got shifted mostly outside in 2000.  Gene Seaman who was the incumbent, brought an inflatable life raft to the House floor and inflated it after his speech.
Ultimately, the LRB did the legislative redistricting, and he got counties to the north of Corpus.

In 2006, Juan Garcia was naval aviator Juan Garcia.  In 2008, Juan Garcia was Harvard Law school classmate of Barrack Obama Juan Garcia, who endorsed Obama in the primary.  Not so popular in South Texas.  Garcia is now an assistant secretary of the Navy.

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Jessica Padre and Tara Rios, Valley Girl

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Not quite big enough cities here (largest are Texarkana, Paris, and Lufkin, respectively) for Republicans to quite get over the top.

The black is White, and McReynolds raises watermelons.

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The GOP shouldn't be losing seats here.  And ought to be able to take one or two in Travis, but didn't hold those.

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These were drawn to have a safe R seat.  In 2012 could be more interesting as McClennan will be less than 1/2 of 2nd seat.

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I don't think this seat has ever had a Republican.

[jimrtex]

State House
HD-45 (D) - San Marcos area.  McCain got 52% here.  This area has been rapidly growing in recent years.  Rose got 59% in 2008, similar in 2006, whereas only getting 55% in 2004 after he barely knocked off the GOP incumbent in 2002 as a young wunderkind.  The GOP candidate has a website and it's not that bad, but he's still a newbie.  It is a swing seat if open, but Rose has been a top notch incumbent.

The Libertarian candidate has withdrawn and endorsed the Republican.

[jimrtex]

HD-84 is in central Lubbock.  McCain got 60% here, and that was likely skewed a few points by college turnout (Texas Tech).

Carl Isett, the incumbent who did not seek re-election has also resigned.  There will be a special election for the final two months of the term in November.  I'd be surprised if it was contested.  If it isn't, I think it can get removed from the ballot.

[jimrtex]

State Senate
Uncontested (8 R, 0 D)
SD-22* (R)

This might be contested.  The special election (runoff Today) is for the remainder of the current term.  Since the winner of the Republican primary withdrew (and there were no other primary winners) all parties can designate a new candidate.  OTOH, Democrats might figure that a contested race might draw more voters who will vote against Edwards.

This will quite likely be contested now that Brian Birdwell has been elected in the special election to fill the remaining 6 months of the 2007-2011 term.

Kip Averitt (from Waco):
1) Filed for re-nomination for the 2011-2013 (redistricting shortened full term).
2) Said he was withdrawing because of health concerns.
3) Was talked into remaining on the primary ballot to prevent outsider (politically and not from Waco) from winning by default.
4) Won primary without campaigning.  Since he was the nominee, he could withdraw and permit the party to name a replacement.  But since he was the only primary-nominated candidate, all parties would be permitted to nominate candidates.
5) Resigned 2007-2011 term, triggering special election, won last night by Brian Birdwell, over former senator David Sibley (from Waco).
6) Hinted that he might not withdraw from his nomination, which would mean that Birdwell would be senator for the remaining 6 months of the term - legislature not in session; and then Averitt would elected essentially unopposed in November.  Also Democrats would not be able to nominate anyone.
7) Has decided to withdraw from nomination, probably next week.

The party nominees for the 2011-2013 will be chosen by the county chairmen of each party, one vote per county.

There is an issue of whether Birdwell is eligible to be senator.  He maintained Texas citizenship while serving in the military (he was at the Pentagon on 9/11 where he was burned over half his body), but then lived in Virginia after separation from the military before moving to Granbury 3 years ago.

[jimrtex]

State House
Contested (22 R, 35 D)
HD-1 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 68% here.  Frost is facing the same opponent as last time
who he got 54% against.

Lavender (R) 52% Frost (D) 41%, independent 8%.

HD-3 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 70% here.  Homer got 52% in 2008 and has survived numerous challenges, but is always in danger, especially this year.

Cain (R) 57% Homer (D) 42%

HD-12 (D) - East Texas.  McCain got 68% here.  McReynolds got 56% and 57% in 2006 and 2008 after barely winning in 2004.  Fortunately for McReynolds, his opponent is a black this time. (lol)

White (R) 58% McReynolds 42%

HD-23 (D) - Galveston/Chambers, east of Houston.  McCain got 53% here.  Eiland hasn't had an opponent since 2000, it'll be curious to see whether he's rusty, though the opponent is a no-name.

Wilson (R) 47%, Eiland 53%.  Wilson had 74% in Chambers, which could have flipped a seat with barely over 1/4 of the population.

HD-33 (D) - Corpus Christi area.  Ortiz Jr. is facing the same GOP Hispanic he got 59% against in 2008.  This is the least competitive of the Nueces swing seats (especially with Ortiz Jr. in - Obama got 52% here)

Torres (R) 53%, Ortiz, Jr. (D) 47%   Ortiz won on election day.  More than 1/2 of votes were cast early and they were 57% for Torres.

HD-34 (D) - Another Corpus Christi swing seat.  McCain got 51% here.  Herrero successfully defended his seat against Connie Scott getting 53% in 2008.  Scott runs again his time in what should be a better year, but I don't particularly like repeats.

Scott (R) 54%, Herrero (D) 46%  This completes the flip of all 3 Nueces County seats

HD-35 (D) - South of San Antonio area.  McCain got 55% here.  GT has performed well since taking this swing seat when it opened in 2004.  Her GOP opponent is Hispanic is far from a joke, well known and well respected in Bee County, which is the swing area of this HD.

Aliseda (R) 53%; Gonzalez Toureilles (D) 47%.  Aliseda carried all counties other than Jim Wells.

HD-41 (D) - Brownsville.  Obama got 57% here, but it's more Democratic than that on a local level.  Not interesting.

Cervera (R) 44% Gonzales (D) 56%

HD-45 (D) - San Marcos area.  McCain got 52% here.  This area has been rapidly growing in recent years.  Rose got 59% in 2008, similar in 2006, whereas only getting 55% in 2004 after he barely knocked off the GOP incumbent in 2002 as a young wunderkind.  The GOP candidate has a website and it's not that bad, but he's still a newbie.  It is a swing seat if open, but Rose has been a top notch incumbent.

Isaac (R) 54% Rose (D) 46%.  The Libertarian withdrew early and endorsed Isaac.

HD-47 (D) - Austin area.  The infamous HD-47.  Bolton got 51% against Terry Keel's sister-in-law Donna in 2008.  Obama got 54% here.  The GOP primary (and runoff) was ugly but Paul Workman won.  I expect an interesting race, but Bolton is obviously favored.

Workman   (R) 49.6%, Bolton (D) 46.2%, Bailey (L) 4%

HD-48 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 53% here, as did Donna Howard, the incumbent.  The GOP candidate is former starting offensive lineman for both UT and the Denver Broncos Dan Neil.  Also should be watched IMO without high "kid" turnout.

Neil (R) 24,982   48.51%, Howard (D) 24,997 48.54%, Easton (L) 1,517 2.94%

HD-50 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 58% here.  The GOP won this one in 2002 before losing it back in 2004.  Much less likely to fall than 47 or 48, IMO.  GOP candidate is unknown.

McGuinness (R) 42% Strama (D) 55%

HD-52 (D) - Diana Maldonado barely took this Williamson County HD in 2008 from the GOP.  McCain got 50% here, beating Obama by 1%.  This will be one of the GOP's top targets this time around.  Larry Gonzales won the bruising primary to face her.

Gonzales   (R) 57%, Maldonado (D) 38%, McCoy (L) 5%.  The Williamson County Democratic chairman resigned a couple of weeks before the election and endorsed Gonzales

HD-57 (D) - Rest of Waco (the more Dem part), as well as rural central Texas.  McCain got 54% here.  Dunnam last had an opponent in 2004 and got 59%.  This area has a decent amount of Hispanics and blacks to prevent problems in bad election cycles and Dunnam's been around forever (which counts a lot around here).  Republican is chair of Leon County GOP (whoopty-doo)

Beck   (R) 52% Dunnam (D) 46%  Dunnam was head of the Democratic caucus.  He got 64% of the vote in McLennan, but only 34% in the other counties.  In 2008, 48% of the vote was cast in McLennan,  in 2010 39%.   Beck got 81% of the vote in Leon County (whoopty-doo).

After redistricting had left him out of his district (one district has to be drawn in McLennan county, with the other taking in other counties)., he bought a farm in Falls County.  A few months ago, it was pointed out that he could seen most mornings at the house he continued to own in Waco (in the other district), and that his kids were going to school there.  Dunnam said something about his critics not understanding farming and that the grass was high in Falls County because it was going to be cut for hay.  The Republicans filed a complaint, but that was probably just to publicize the issue.

HD-69* (D) - Wichita Falls area.  McCain got 70% here.  David Farabee, one of the last West Texas Dems retired this year.  I would be shocked if the GOP does not regain this seat as Lanham Lyne, Wichita Falls mayor, won the GOP nomination and the Dem is a complete no-name.

Lyne (R) 74% Dem Doe 26%

HD-74 (D) - West Texas/Border.  McCain go 51% here.  Pete Gallego faces Thomas Kincaid again in a repeat of 2008 where Gallego got 64%.  Kincaid's raised a little cash, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer, but Gallego's not in any danger IMO, especially not against a white-surnamed candidate.

This was back and forth depending on which counties were coming in.   It ended up 45-55 for Gallego.

HD-78 (D) - North El Paso.  Obama got 53% here.  Margo lost 52-45 here in 2008 after she knocked off the incumbent, more liberal GOPer, Pat Haggarty, and is back to try again.  IMO, her performance in the primary was weak and the Moody name is usually worth a few points in Texas regardless of wherever.  That being said, Hispanic turnout will of course be nonexistant as per usual in mid-terms and Margo will raise some money (always a key to being competitive).

Margo (R) 52% Moody (D) 48%

HD-85 (D) - Big rural West Texas district.  McCain got 72% here.  Heflin will always be in perpetual danger and this time he'll face the same opponent he beat by 217 votes in 2006 to originally win the open seat after Pete Laney retired, Jim Landtroop.  Obviously one of the top GOP targets.

Landtroop (R) 62% Heflin (D) 38%

[jimrtex]

HD-93 (D) - More Tarrant suburbs, this is mainly Arlington and Grand Prairie.  Obama got 54% here.  Pierson first won this seat in 2006 from the GOP incumbent and she got a strong 57% in 2008.  Good bit of Hispanic/black influx here is the reason why.  The GOP opponent is Barbara Nash who barely defeated Pierson's 2008 opponent in the primary.  On its face, she has a decent resume, being elected to the Arlington City Council, AISD Board of Trustees, etc., (a Pierson-backed candidate defeated her in the City Council position fyi) but I suspect the GOP has a better shot in other HDs.  It will be on the radar, of course.

Nash (R) 49.2%, Piersen (D) 47.6%, (L) 3%

HD-96 (D) - Southern Tarrant suburbs.  McCain got 51% here.  Still mainly Anglo area.  Bill Zedler, having lost his seat in 2008 to the Dem incumbent Chris Turner by four points, is back for a rematch.  Expect this to be a top GOP target.

Zedler (R) 52% Turner (D) 48%

HD-101 (D) - East Dallas suburbs - Mesquite and Sunnyvale.  Obama won by a 50-49 margin here.  A touch less Anglo than HD-96, for comparison.  This seat opened up in 2008, when Robert Miklos beat Bill Anderson, the GOP candidate, by a little over 500 votes.  The GOP candidate doesn't have a great website, but dominated in a primary where everyone expected a runoff.  Another top GOP target.  

Burkett (R) 52% Miklos 48%

HD-102 (D) - North Dallas suburbs, some of Garland.  Obama won 50-49 here too.  Kent defeated incumbent GOP rep Tony Goolsby by 6 points.  This HD is much less Anglo than 96 or 101, but the GOP has gotten a half-black former Fort Worth DA and Harvard Law School graduate to run here who destroyed her opponent (not a pushover opponent either) in the primary.  Another top GOP target.

Carter (R) 55% Kent (D) 45%  -- during the campaign, Carter was accused not only of having plagiarized Obama's biography, but his campaign speech.  She didn't require a teleprompter though.

HD-105 (R) - West Dallas suburbs, in particular Irving.  Obama got 52% here.  The Anglo population is roughly the same as 93 and 102, less than the 96, 101 and especially 92 (of those mentioned earlier.  Harper-Brown won by 19 votes over Bob Romano in 2008 - closest race of the cycle.  This time she faces Loretta Haldenwang who beat her Asian opponent in the primary by an ok margin.  Anyway, this is the top Dem target in the state and one of the few realistic ones IMO.

Harper-Brown (R) 51% Haldenwang (D) 45%

HD-106 (D) - West Dallas suburbs, mostly Grand Prairie.  Obama won the HD by about 100 votes.  The Anglo population is similar to 93, 102 and 105, but the black population is a good bit lower, with many more Hispanics.  England switched from GOP to Dem in 2008 and won re-election strongly (IMO) with 55% of the vote.  Facing him is a Republican businessman who has a website and probably money.  However, 2008 indicates to me that England has a bit of a personal vote, so he'll probably be tougher to for the GOP take out than 96, 101 and 102, but easier than 93 IMO.

Anderson (R) 49.45 England (D) 48.49%  England's father is the mayor of Grand Prairie, and longtime Republican who endorsed Bill White after the primary.

HD-107 (D) - East Dallas suburbs, part of Garland.  McCain won 50-49 here.  This HD is more white than 93, 102, 105 and 106 but less white than 92, 96 and 101.  Vaught won his rematch with Bill Keffer in 2008, whom he defeated when the latter was an incumbent in 2006.  To be noted is the fact that it was by the exact same margin, 3 points, which is, obviously, less impressive.  This time he faces Kenneth Sheets, a Marine and a military guy for almost 40 years (though he does have a law degree (odd)).  As before, this seat will obviously be a GOP target.

Sheets (R) 51% Vaught (D) 46%

HD-113 (R) - Far NE Dallas County - mostly Garland.  McCain got 55% here.  This HD is more white than 93, 96, 102, 105, 107 (barely) and 108, but less white than 92, 96 and 101.  The difference here is that these suburbs are further out and the whites less professional.  Joe Driver, the incumbent, got 59% in 2008 and 2006.  His candidate has little of a notable background that I can tell of.

Driver (R) 57%, Dorris (D) 43%

HD-117 (D) - West Bexar County.  Obama got 54% here.  Leibowitz has the Hispanic small businessman (John Garza) running against him who did last time.  Garza did get 43% to Leibowitz's 57% (Leibowitz got 59% in 2006 against an Anglo), so this is far from a blowout area, which makes sense since Leibowitz took the HD by defeating the prior GOP incumbent in 2004.  It's on the periphery for now, of course.

Garza (R) 51.9%, Leibowitz (D) 48.1%.

HD-122* (R) - North Bexar County suburbs.  McCain got 64% here.  Frank Corte, Jr., the incumbent GOP representative, is retiring.  The GOP nominated Lyle Larson, who notably lost to Ciro Rodriguez in TX-23 last year, but this is his home base.  The Dems have nominated some Indian doctor, who does have a website and a decent resume, but not a chance in these white suburbs.

HD-133 (D) - West Houston suburbs.  Obama got 52% here.  The Anglo VAP is only 40%, there's a lot of blacks and Hispanics here.  Thibaut beat the incumbent Jim Murphy by 2% in 2008 and Murphy is back for a rematch.  As I might note below, you can once again see how much more reflexive Houston outside-the-loop suburban whites are at voting Republican than their Dallas counterparts.  Naturally, a top GOP target without Obama getting the 20% black population to turn out.

Murphy (R) 56%, Thibaut (D) 42%

HD-134 (D) - West Houston suburbs inside the Loop and Bellaire.  McCain won here 50% to 49%.  This is a very white, wealthy HD, which includes a lot of Jewish Meyerland and Rice University.  After getting 55% in beating Martha Wong in 2006, Cohen also pulled 55% in 2008.  Republicans have put up white attorney Sarah Davis this time around, in which she had a so-so primary showing, but has a decent resume (involved politically, though not elected).  This will also be a top GOP target, though Cohen's numbers have impressed (imo).

Davis (R) 50.7%, Cohen 49.3%

HD-137 (D) - West Houston suburbs.  Obama got 62% here.  This area has gone very Hispanic and Asian over the years (I remember when it was white, now not many really). Spivey, the GOP incumbent, ran in 2006 and got 42%, so obviously Hochberg is not the strongest incumbent ever (prior results are somewhat similar).  Still, no chance, not with only 20% white VAP.

Spivey (R) 41% Hochberg (D) 59% on incredibly low turnout.

HD-143 (D) - East Houston (my old home HD).  Obama got 60% here.  Hispanic area.  GOPer is a no-name Hispanic with no chance.

Sylvia Garcia was beaten in the county commissioner race, BTW.

HD-148 (D) - Central Houston inside the loop.  Obama got 59% here.  This HD has a number more whites than 143 so the ceiling is a good bit higher, but still no chance.  GOPer is a Hispanic.

Herrera (R) 41%, Farrar (D) 59%

HD-149 (D) - SW Houston suburbs.  Obama got 54% here.  Lots of Asians here.  GOP targeted Vo, who defeated the GOP incumbent in 2006 and he got 55% in 2008.  So this year, we get a GOP-nothing-special.  While I can't say for 100% this is out of the GOP radar, it's definitely not a top target.

O'Connor (R) 48%, Vo (D) 52%.  O'Connor led in early voting.

So GOP picks up 22 of 24 realistic targets.

[jimrtex]

State House

HD-48 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 53% here, as did Donna Howard, the incumbent.  The GOP candidate is former starting offensive lineman for both UT and the Denver Broncos Dan Neil.  Also should be watched IMO without high "kid" turnout.

Neil (R) 24,982   48.51%, Howard (D) 24,997 48.54%, Easton (L) 1,517 2.94%

Howard wins election contest by 4.

[jimrtex]

does anyone know how Rick Perry did in each of the house and senate districts? That is a better indicator of a district's political leanings than how Obama or McCain did in the district.

The numbers on the State House/Senate websites haven't been updated yet. 

Perry was a drag on the statewide ticket.

The first lawsuit has been filed in Texas.  It makes two claims: that the census population includes undocumented immigrants, denying the plaintiffs equal protection under the 14th Amendment; and second that the current districts are not equally populated.

[jimrtex]

Lol at that Trinity of small Rural White Counties voting for White - Falls, Foard & Trinity.
All three gave right about 60% to McCain fwiw (not much - if all rural 60% McCain Counties had gone to White the map would be a fair bit redder.)

Well, Foard has a long history of voting Democratic.

Falls County has blacks, did tend to go Dem pre-2000 and I suspect is probably still pissed off at the whole TTC thingy.

Trinity did go Democratic in non-blowout Prez elections prior to 2000, including a bit stronger than surrounding areas in 1996, but why so different in this election than the surrounding territories.  Any clue.

ftp://ftp.dot.state.tx.us/pub/txdot-info/i_69/maps/fig_es24.pdf

The TTC was supposed to provide enough land for an limited access freeway, a totally separate truck freeway, high speed rail, and pipelines, in a 1200 foot corridor (about 1/4 mile or 365 m).  And then when they set up the study areas they assumed a totally new alignment and were simply figuring the best route over a study area that would be up to 5 miles wide, but it is easy for people to get confused and think the highway will be 5 miles wide.

In the case of I-69, they are still trying to figure a routing through Houston.  US-59 (Eastex and Southwest freeways) are not the best routes for heavy truck traffic - and hazard materials would probably be required to bypass them).  Some proposals have suggested upgrading existing links, such as I-610 (North and West Loop), which is just a little bit better than 59, since it doesn't go directly by downtown, but does run by the Galleria; Texas 8 (North and West Belt/Sam Houston Tollway), a little more reasonable, but land constrained in areas.  Texas 99 (Grand Parkway).  This hasn't been built in the NW area yet, and they've run into funding constraints and routing problems.  There is also a desire to connect to the Ship Channel and the container facility south of the ship channel.

But it you are transporting cars from Hermosillo to Detroit, you'd really want to bypass Houston completely, which gives you the route through Trinity County.  Because it has to swing north above the flood pool for Lake Livingston it is even longer.

So you have:

Trinity: Perry 47%, Abbott 67% (20%)
Walker: 54 vs. 72 (18%)
Grimes: 59 vs. 74 (15%)
Waller: 56 vs. 67 (11%)
Liberty: 64% vs. 77% *13%)
Wharton: 53% vs 73% (20%)
Jackson: 61% vs. 78% (17%)
Goliad: 55% vs. 72% (17%)

The more rural the county, the bigger the difference.  If there is a city of any sort, then there are people who see a benefit of being on a major transportation corridor.

The TTC in Central Texas would have been east of I-35, because you are in the Hill Country if you go west, and the idea is to bypass Waco, Temple, Austin, etc.  So you have"

Falls: 47% vs 64% (17%)
Hill: 61% vs. 77% (16%)

Statewide: 55% vs 64% (9%)

White won Foard County 153:148, the two counties that Perry and Obama won are counties where being the mayor of Houston would not be big selling points (Brewster in the Big Bend, which Perry carried by 1 vote) and Kenedy which is mostly the King Ranch, which Perry carried 109:88.

[jimrtex]

The more rural the county, the bigger the difference.  If there is a city of any sort, then there are people who see a benefit of being on a major transportation corridor.

I doubt that that's anything to do with it. Rural areas in the United States vote on candidates and issues. Suburban areas in the United States vote on candidates' partisan affiliation.

Rurality is a relative term.  The urban population in the US is that living in places of 2500 or more persons.  Rural is anything that is not urban. 

Trinity County has no urban population.  The particular appeal of the area is relative short distance from a major city on a lake.  You drive north an hour or so, and then drive to your 2nd home/retirement home in a bucolic city.  A 1/4 wide highway with limited access has no appeal.

The Perry-Abbott difference was much higher in Trinity County than counties such as Houston, San Augustine, San Jacincto, and Sabine, though admittedly Houston does have Crockett.

[jimrtex]

State House

HD-48 (D) - Another Austin HD.  Obama got 53% here, as did Donna Howard, the incumbent.  The GOP candidate is former starting offensive lineman for both UT and the Denver Broncos Dan Neil.  Also should be watched IMO without high "kid" turnout.

Neil (R) 24,982   48.51%, Howard (D) 24,997 48.54%, Easton (L) 1,517 2.94%

Howard wins election contest by 4.

Rather, the special master has issued his report.  It now is considered by the contest committee.

The standard of proof is "clear and convincing evidence" that illegally cast votes or legal votes that were excluded would have changed the outcome.

After the recount it was: Howard 25,023, Neil 25,011.

30 voters filled out a statement of residence indicating an out-of-county residence, and shouldn't have been permitted to vote.  If you reside in the county, but at a different residence, you can vote.

15 admitted to have voted for Howard, 8 admitted to have voted for Neil, and these were subtracted.   5 could not recall who they voted for (note that in Texas, there is only a secret ballot for legal votes).  So even though they were illegal votes, there is not clear and convincing evidence that it would have changed the result.

2 claimed to still live in Travis County, even though when they voted, they provided an external residence.  One said she stayed with different friends, and gave an address of a relative so it would be a permanent mailing address.  The other was in the "process" of moving.  She had changed her drivers license in July, and had filed for a homestead exemption for her house (this is only legal for owner-occupied houses).  But on election day she still considered her daughters house to be her domicile.  She gave the new address so her voting address could be updated.

So again there is not clear and convincing evidence that they resided outside the county, even though they gave an out-of-county address when asked if they lived at the address on their voting registration.

So after changes: Howard 25,008, Neil 25,003.

35 voters who were on the suspense list should have been required to prove their residence, but there is no record of them doing so.  Some in fact did still live at their registered address, but it sounds like some couldn't be found.  But there is not clear and convincing evidence that the failure to prove their residence was their fault and not the election officials.  So there is not a clear and convincing evidence that they resided outside the county.

1 voter whose registered was not effective on election day.  He voted for Neil.

So after changes: Howard 25,008, Neil 25,002.

4 4 absentee ballots were not counted.

It was agreed that two should have been counted.  Each candidate got one vote.

One voter had not signed her application for an absentee ballot, and the election officials should have secured her signature, but instead sent her a ballot.  When she returned it, it didn't match the signature on the application, since there was no signature on the application.  This was counted, as a voter for Neil.

One voter had applied for an absentee ballot but had mailed it from Travis County before flying to Germany.  Texas law requires absentee voters to be absent from the county for the entire election period including early voting, and mail absentee ballots from outside the county.  The voter was out of the country for the entire election period, but had mailed it before he had left, before early voting started.  Technically he is at fault, so the ballot has not been opened, but the voter claims that he voted for Neil, and had based his action from advice by a clerk, so the vote was counted.

After changes: Howard 25,009, Neil 25,005.

2 votes were alleged to be double voters.  It turned out that they had similar names to other voters, so no change.

222 voters were mailed ballots outside the country, after having filed a Federal Post Card Application ("FPCA").  The FPCA application has check boxes that let voters indicate whether they were (1) Military or their dependents; (2) Residing outside the country temporarily; or (3) Residing outside the country indefinitely.

The 222 voters in category (3) may vote a federal ballot only.  They were sent a full ballot with the non-federal races crossed off, but including a straight ticket box that applied to the congressional race only.  When the ballots were returned, any extraneous marks on the ballot were removed with a duplicate being made.  191 of these voters also voted in 2008 using FPCA. 

But there is no clear and convincing evidence that voters excluded legal votes, even though voters may not have understood the difference between living outside the country with no definite time of return; and those whose intent to return the USA is indefinite.  I doubt that any voter could be definitely sure which category they belong in since they evidently retain some affinity for their country.  I doubt that any election official could prove it either way.