China, currency manipulation, tariffs. (user search)
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  China, currency manipulation, tariffs. (search mode)
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Author Topic: China, currency manipulation, tariffs.  (Read 1222 times)
Wonkish1
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« on: November 23, 2011, 01:31:44 AM »
« edited: November 23, 2011, 04:00:38 AM by Wonkish1 »

Interestingly, China's currency manipulation, putting tariffs on them etc. is not an issue that has clear partisan dividing lines.

Early in Obama's terms, he put a couple of random tariffs on Chinese imports, car tires among them. Why he chose to add a couple of tariffs to a small number of products was a bit confusing, it didn't really affect much, but made the American car tire industry happy.

Currently Mitt Romney is saying he'll bring China before the WTO as a currency manipulator and will apply broad tariffs on Chinese goods.

Of course, if China's currency was suddenly allowed to float or we slapped enough tariffs on Chinese imports to make the price ''fair'', the American consumer would be hit very hard.

I do believe that their currency should be allowed to float ultimately, and that it will help rebalance the world economy, encouraging Chinese consumption and U.S. production.

But in the short term, China's cheap currency allows us to buy cheap stuff. If that went away, people would hurt for quite a while during the transition

Well a few things I should point out that many may not know:

1) China keeping its artificially devalued essentially acts as a purchasing power tax on its population and a purchasing power subsidy on our population

2) If you keep your currency devalued, yes you can keep low capital cost manufacturing more competitive, but it makes you horribly non competitive in high capital cost manufacturing. Ever wonder why China hasn't been able to break into much tech manufacturing, auto manufacturing(of which they've been trying for years), planes, ships, etc.? The reason is because they've made the cost of purchasing expensive machinery and very high skill people way to expensive.

3) Market forces are now catching up with their property markets and exporters and will either force them to change or enter a period of Japan like decay. So it really isn't to much of a long term issue

4) When we buy Chinese goods they have a surplus of dollars in China. Now they have to use that money to buy something in the US. In most cases they are buying treasuries and a few other bonds and equity positions. That should allow the United States to redirect capital to an efficient place and build up new industries really fast, but instead what happens is the Federal Reserve creates an artificially low price of money and the capital shows up in asset bubbles instead of almost exclusively prudent investments.

5) Lets point out that the Chinese actually have allowed their currency to appreciate considerably over the last couple years and we are actually the ones that have allowed our currency to depreciate courtesy of the Fed. So increasingly we are the problem.
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Wonkish1
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Posts: 2,203


« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2011, 01:36:30 AM »

For the past few weeks, the Chinese yuan has been trading lower in the Hong Kong informal markets than the pegged rate, and futures are no longer indicating appreciation. China's exports have fallen and imports have risen, and the real exchange rate has risen faster than the nominal exchange rate due to inflation. That, plus the fact that capital is now fleeing China to the US, means that the Chinese yuan is no longer undervalued. If it was allowed to float, it might very well sink.

I expected that to happen. Who wants to keep money in China today when the only real choices are an overvalued equity market, probably the largest property bubble in world history, and mafia like "shadow banks" that offer extremely high interest rates to the businesses that have been cut off by the state owned banks and aren't willing to just close shop today.
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Wonkish1
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Posts: 2,203


« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2011, 01:49:41 AM »

If it was allowed to float, it might very well sink.

True, but that wont last forever. After their markets correct they need to allow their currency float afterward otherwise their exporters aren't going to get that major benefit like they've had before. Limited world demand and rising input costs would put a cap on growth if they tried to keep pushing this export based economy crap.

There future growth lies in improving domestic production for domestic consumption that requires that naturally appreciating currency when they make their recovery.
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2011, 03:22:49 AM »

Jacobtm definitely takes the free market position here though.

I don't think you can reasonably make that claim. Debatable at best, the exact opposite at worst(from your perspective).
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Wonkish1
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Posts: 2,203


« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2011, 06:23:16 AM »

Jacobtm definitely takes the free market position here though.

I don't think you can reasonably make that claim. Debatable at best, the exact opposite at worst(from your perspective).

Wanting the market to determine currency exchange rates is not a more free market position than gloating about the opposite because you like getting more cheap crap? Doubtful.

No if that was the case I would agree with you that is the free market position. But responding to another party not doing that with tariff's and quota's would be debatable at best.
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Wonkish1
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Posts: 2,203


« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2011, 06:48:08 AM »


Oh sorry your right! Never mind then.
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