JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[Wonkish1]

I think you should add a few of those "greater than 0 chance" races to your likely dem list because otherwise your going to wake up on the 3rd with a couple of races that flip and are not on your list and a lot that are going to be close that are not on your list.

First of all, I actually have MN 8 flipping to GOP. Id say that the chances of that are pretty close to walz in mn 1 taking his seat and is the most likely of the old boys(dingell, frank, oberstar, hoyer) to fall. I also have MA 6 flipping GOP. Both of those I have flipping GOP while I'm predicting that CA 20 is going to stay dem when that is currently on realclears tossup column.

2nd 1s that I have extremely close on the dem side:
ME 2
MA 4
NM 3
TX 27
WA 9

On the GOP side:
AZ 3 been calling this one close for a while. It took a poll for everybody to see this one
MI 3 here's another for you. This one is a lot closer than you think.

Ill add some more for you in a min

[Wonkish1]

There are a ton of closer races than:
PA 4: altmire is pretty damn safe
ID 2: same for minnick
Oh 13: pretty much throwing in the towel now

1 more for each party that I have very close that you should have listed in at least likely territory
Dem: NY 4
GOP: NE 2

Otherwise I have a few that I have closer than some of your "likely's" like MI 15, or OR 4. And I reorder a lot of yours in the likely, lean, tossup areas but ill just leave it. At least they are on your list.

I also have my big, big sleeper this race which you would need to read through my thread o get.