And adding to the confusion.. TIPP says Kerry 46/ Bush 45

[Shira]

Well this certainly clears things up..

2 Way LV

Kerry 46
Bush 45

3 Way LV

Bush 45
kerry 45
Nader 1

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

It is now official...

The world has gone mad

Why do you have a difference in the titles between your TIPP posting and your PEW posting?

[Shira]

Your graph leaves out the latest Pew poll and IBD/TIPP poll released today, in addition to the new Gallup, ABC/WaPo, Time, Marist, NBC/WSJ

Fox News, Tarrance Battleground and AP/Ipsos polls are nowhere to be found on your graph, yet they are more highly respected than some of the polls you have on here.

Democracy Corps is a Dem polling firm and in my mind therefore suspect.  I wouldn't give any more credence to an Ayres McHenry poll or any other Rep polling firm over other neutral ones.

Please correct this and then we can talk about what's happening in the race because I can guarantee that the figures will appear much different.

The above chart ends at 09/20. There were some improvments for Kerry after 9/20. In my estimate Kerry is currently behind by  approximately 2%.

[Shira]

Actually Vorlorn, if you take a "Poll of All Polls" Good, Bad, and Ugly.....you get quite a different picture.......about a +1.35% to Bush.





Its interesting that its the Time, NYT/CBS, Newsweek, and Gallup polls that have kept Bush's numbers inflated by WIDE margins IMO. Yet, Rasussen, TIPP, Dem Corps, Zogby, YouGov/Economist and others all show the race (still with a small Bush lead) but much, much closer nationally.

BTW, TIPP has pretty consistantly shown this race to be much closer, as I posted earlier in this thread......

At any rate.....a "dozen" polls are showing a pretty unmistakable trend......the race is closing.

In the latest TIPP poll Kerry gets 46% and Bush 45%.
In the previous TIPP poll Kerry got 43% and Bush 46%.
The gap has changed by 4%. You can say that Kerry went up by 2 and Bush went down by 2%.

If we do the above comparisons (the latest vs. the previous or before 9/20 and after 9/20) on the polling numbers of the other firms we’ll get the following improvements for Kerry:

TIPP +2
CNN +2.5
ABC +1.5
PEW –2.5 (Improvement for Bush)
Time +4
Rasmussen +1.5 (I picked 9/18 as ‘previous’)

On the average Kerry improved by 1.5% and Bush went down by 1.5%
Could well be that some of the polling methods are not good, but I am comparing two polls of the same polling firm on two different dates.