Migrating population is the key to the trend analysis

[Shira]

As per “AFRNC Chair Richard M. Nixon”:
“Bush is very popular in Texas, as is Governor Rick Perry. Their popularity has helped the GOP grow there. Bush was the first GOP governor in over 100 years.”

WRONG!

Since 1980 TX’s GOP number is higher than their national one.

In 1988,1992,1996,2000 this number was 1.95, 2.58, 7.76, and 11.30 respectively.
The consistent growth has nothing to do with this governor or that governor. It has more to do with migrating population (emigrating and immigrating).

In general, if you look only on the difference (state-national) then the trend analysis is a very good tool.

[Shira]

"In 1988,1992,1996,2000 this number was 1.95, 2.58, 7.76, and 11.30 respectively"
 
should be:
"In 1988,1992,1996,2000 the difference was 1.95, 2.58, 7.76, and 11.30 respectively"

[Shira]

In the south there are voters who vote Rep while their parents have voted Dem. It is not easy to find a voter who switched parties, though every one of us knows someone who did it

It is safe to assert that the main reason for the big changes in states like NH, NJ, CT, SD, MT, WY and TX is the emigration/immigration process that took place during the last 20 years.

[Shira]

I think the fact that the Republicans now control nearly every state office and te state legislature for about the first time ever is a pretty good sign that they have trended Republican.  The home state effect explains the Presidential race issues.

I would advise you to prepare yourself for a "Florida Disappointment".
The Republicans completely control all levels of government (except the SC) in Florida. The Democrats here are basically a ineffective third party when it comes to state politics.

[Shira]

I would advise you to prepare yourself for a "Florida Disappointment".

[Shira]

Have you noticed that the governors of MA, CT, NY, and MD  are all REPs.
In MA Bush got 32%. In NYC - 15% despite the GOP mayor.

[Shira]

 
Americans vote differently in state elections then in presidential ones