Most likely chamber to flip?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Don't forget Tennessee House (D -> R) 
(Hey, one can dream!)

Tennessee Senate (split -> R) is very likely.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

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What is the situation there? I thought that had already happened, or was it just for organizational purposes?

After the '04 election, the Senate was 17R-16D but Mike Williams (R) voted to keep John Wilder (D) as Speaker.  In early 2006, Don McLeary switched to the GOP, making the Senate 18R-15D.  McLeary lost re-election in '06, but Rosalind Kurita (D) voted for the Ron Ramsey (R) for Speaker.  After Kurita's vote ensured Ramsey's election, Williams voted for Ramsey -- but he then switched to "Independent NASCAR fan", causing the Senate's current makeup to be 16R-16D-1I.  Williams is running for re-election this year as an Independent, which is probably a one-way ticket to defeat.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Seriously? A member of the Tennessee Senate is actually registered as "Independent NASCAR Fan"?

Facepalm

Yup.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm astonished to see that he's single.

And with a Studebaker in his garage too!

LOL.  Micheal has had a political identity crisis.

Democrats in the legislature consist of rural hicks and inner-city blacks, with just a sprinkling of standard liberals from urbane centers. (Richardson and Kernell from Memphis, Tindell from Knoxville, etc.)

Republicans consist of sub/exurbanites and hillbillies.  (Not meant as a perjorative term, as hillbillies are the best Republicans)  Williams opponent, Mike Faulk, is running as a "Mountain Republican"

Williams couldn't decide whether he wanted to be a hick or a hillbilly, hence his... confusion.