House Districts where the General Election matters (user search)
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  House Districts where the General Election matters (search mode)
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Author Topic: House Districts where the General Election matters  (Read 2614 times)
Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

« on: December 23, 2012, 04:04:36 AM »

When people ask me about the woes of the GOP and how the party can get progressively more extreme, I often point out a simple fact -- in most parts of the country, the general election does not matter anymore.  If you can win a plurality of the vote in a GOP primary, you're elected no matter how radical you are.

I wish we had a map that estimates how small a share of the vote one would need in order to get elected in a particular Congressional district --

For example -
If you have a district where the GOP average is 60% the 100% of general election voters
The primary election has 40% of the turnout of the general (40% of general election voters)
60% of primary voters vote GOP (24% of general election voters)
Extreme Candidate gets 55% of the GOP primary (13% of general election voters)

Then all you need is a hardcore 10-15% of the voting electorate to win.

Here is a map of Congressional districts where noncompetitive districts are grayed out - as these voters basically have no choice who their Representative is in the general election.

As this map is probably deeply flawed, please feel free to add your corrections Tongue

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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,983
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.03, S: -2.26

« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2012, 01:12:17 AM »

I think we're missing my overall point here Smiley -- I'm trying to explain that the vast majority of Americans live in districts where their general election vote might as well be for Mickey Mouse because their Congressman has already been elected in a primary.

Far-right GOPers getting elected in safe GOP districts could still sour the mood on the national party, and Dems pick up some seats they wouldn't have otherwise.

How well has that worked out so far? Smiley

(It does work in statewide races, but our states are gerrymandered for 19th century politics rather than today's polarization.)
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