Analysis: Crime is more of an "issue" because Fox/right wing media is making it one

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

...the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt.

Americans have talked about how, only a few years prior, things were so much calmer or made so much more sense, since at least the 1960s, and probably forever. This "general sense" is meaningless.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Is Crime Actually Going Up? We Ask Detroit
Detroit's Open Data Portal includes an RMS incidents file which you can download for personal analysis. I do not recommended it for scholarly purposes because it is location anonymized to intersections, and it requires a little wrangling in the time field (last I checked it was in UTC so it takes a bit of work to put it into EST). It was last updated in the middle of this month, but as October is not yet finished, analyzing October numbers would be meaningless. The time zone issue I mentioned is almost immaterial as that is a slight inaccuracy of 4-5 hours for month-long periods. I nevertheless chose Detroit as it is my previous locale and I am more familiar with its ODO than I am with, say, Seattle's, which should also be available for personal research purposes.

All Incidents
As we would expect in warmer months, the total number of RMS incidents each month was higher from July to September than it was earlier in the year. Out of the past five years, 2022 up to September is about in the middle, but it has registered a higher total number of incidents this year than in the past two "COVID" years. (60,337 versus 58,535 and 57,800)

Violent Crime
Violent crime is actually lower this year than the past two years. This applies for the sum of FBI Part I crimes (Homicide/Agg Assault/Sexual Assault/Robbery), as well as homicide and aggravated assault isolated as their own group. (Jan-Sep there were 7,976 FBI Part I violent incidents; during that same period in 2020 it was 8,929 and 9,033 in 2021)

Property Crime
The FBI Part I Property Crime count is comprised of larceny, burglary, arson, and stolen vehicle offenses. This year overall has been higher than the previous years, but lower than 2018 or 2019. Interestingly, July-September has seen a pretty big surge in property crime that we're not seeing in violent crime, and which has been stronger than in other years. As September these days in Michigan is warmer than it used to be, this may have some impact; as well, the end of COVID regulations/fears would likely result in greater commercial activity and nightlife. I would also speculate that maybe inflation or other economic concerns have encouraged greater incidents of theft, but that is unsupported as of yet.

Weapons Offenses
The number of weapons offenses is lower than the past two years, but higher than 2018-2019. This is an inverse of property crime, which has increased from the COVID period but is still lower than in normal years.

Overall
Overall, the city seems to be physically safer than during COVID, which saw increases in violent and weapons offenses, but the incidence of property crimes is higher, probably a reflection of increasing activity downtown and a resulting increase in the number of potential "victims" (both humans and vehicles). I did not examine individual offense types, but an increase in burglaries, hypothetically, could also reflect the end of work from home/more empty houses. These findings contradict both a narrative of CITIES IN CHAOS, but also challenges a narrative that "everything is fine".