A Tale of Two Texans

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Glad to see someone's using the idea again, and this time with an earlier President Bush. Should be interesting, especially if H.W. gets stuck dealing with the late '70's.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

This is sick. What was Agnew's angle? Did he run as his 1960's Rockefeller Republicsn incarnation, or his 1970's populist conservative persona?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Hmmm... I would think that Bush would fare better than Ford, given his combination of Southern and New England history, whereas Gerry was running solely as a Michiganian. Thus, I would assume that H.W. would have an edge in the South that Ford lacked, while still being able to tie in the North, and that Reagan's real life campaign problems (a surprising loss in New Hampshire) would persist.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Hmmm... I would think that Bush would fare better than Ford, given his combination of Southern and New England history, whereas Gerry was running solely as a Michiganian. Thus, I would assume that H.W. would have an edge in the South that Ford lacked, while still being able to tie in the North, and that Reagan's real life campaign problems (a surprising loss in New Hampshire) would persist.

I had considered this a potential obstacle to Reagan posing a serious threat to Bush's renomination, hence why I figured that Reagan's campaign would have to gain steam earlier in order for Bush to perform equivalently to Ford IRL. I thought that given Bush's 1980 Iowa caucus win that a New Hampshire upset would be more plausible, but now that I think about it Iowa is probably one of the few states where Bush could probably underperform Ford. Once we accept Reagan's unlikely New Hampshire win prima facie, I do not think that the subsequent Southern primary victories are as implausible.

Not familiar with "prima facie". I assume it means "at face value" or something. I am aware that in '76, Reagan was expected to do well in the anti-tax New Hampshire, but due to a tax plan of his that, while lowering federal taxes, would have devolved them to the states, he ended up losing and needed North Carolina, as I recall, to gain momentum. And yeah, I can see Bush doing worse than Ford given Ford's Mid-Western strength.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Can we see maps for elections where the outcome has already been made clear (changes to '68 and possibly '72 due to Nixon's selection of Bush, and the 1976 GOP primaries and general election)?

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Thanks. Will you be going over the themes of Agnew's election over Clinton later on?