2004 Democratic Primary

[Canadian observer]

Poor BC, I couldn't stand all of those Conservatives... ew... Support for all of the parties have stalled, slow news week in Canadian politics, Stephen Harper was elected yes, and the budget came out, but in general that didn't move voters much. Something big will have to happen to shake the numbers up again.

Siege40

... Another scandal may shake it again ...

I meant something like the election call, or some sort of powerful issue. The Liberals need a strong issue.

Siege40

When I was 13, a federal party leader said: "Elections are not time to discuss serious issues". That quotes came from the famous PC Party leader Kim Campbell. I still remember the guffow that came from the press at the end of the '93 federal campaign. How the Martin Liberals can expect to catch a strong issue when the only one Paul Martin has found is the need to "get a mandate" for his own sake and strike "a balance" between the latter and the need of the people to be informed on governmental management issues? Such message doesn't sound sexy in campaign. His message is blurred and Martin doesn't seem to have a back-up plan supporting his current, which is in tatters. Maybe one way for him to get an issue is to do something he's been very reluctant to: Governing...

[Canadian observer]

I've noticed that www.electionprediction.com uses the new ridings for predicting the coming Canadian Federal Election.  It may be that they have information to suggest that Martin, hoping for the sponsorship scandal to die down, will not drop the writ until August 25 or later, and having people make predictions for both the old and new ridings would be very confusing.  Parties have already started chosing nominees for the election (presumably for the new ridings) though, which makes me wonder if it isn't set in stone that the new ridings will be used for the next election, whenever it is called and held.  Can somebody confirm one way or the other if it is certain that the new ridings will be used?  And if not, can someone tell me if the parties are choosing nominees for the old ridings, the new ridings, both, or if it varies from party to party and riding to riding?

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

I'm not sure, but I think an amendment to the Federal Election Laws has been passed by Parliament.  This amendment permits the enforcement of a new riding map 6 months after its creation (instead of one year in the former law).  Hence, the new electoral map is in place today (no April fool here)

[Canadian observer]

My Tentative prediction map:
No shaded colors YET, Iw ill get to that...maybe.

Cool map indeed. However you should know Canadian federal elections aren't like Presidentials.

A map like what you did may be just useful to know which party got the most votes and/or seats...

[Canadian observer]

Presently it might be surprising to see Liberals win most of BC seats.  A few weeks ago, I watched a news report on CBC in which a Liberal strategist was questionned over the party's prospects for the next election.  All he answered was that the LPC might be lucky to hold 2 seats in the province.

Liberals may surely be hammered in Quebec if Paul Martin declares an election this spring.  The sponsorship scandal has long legs here in my home province.  The LPC is still trailing the BQ by a 10-point-and-plus margin (which means the Bloc would get 50 seats or more among the 75 federal seats allocated to the province).  The most recent Léger Poll annouced that 61% of the respondent were dissatified with Paul Martin's work as Prime Minister.

I haven't got any cue on Ontario recently.  However, based on what I heard and read about Martin Liberals' plan, they thought of gaining seats in Quebec in order to offset losses in Ontario. Of course, that plan was well before the outbreaking of the sponsorship scandal, but I think it tells much about the low confidence Liberals have about keeping almost all Ontario's seats.

[Canadian observer]

Based on two other cases of political mood swing in Quebec (i.e., the up and down of ADQ in 2002-03 and the Charest effect in 1998), it may take 7 to 8 months for the Martin Liberals to regain the lead over the adverse party in Quebec.

There are rumours that Martin's team of advisors is divided over the timing of the election. Most of the French Quebecer advisors are said to beg the PM not to drop the writ until the end of summer. Meanwhile, the other advisors from the rest of Canada may like an election as soon as possible in order to give less time for the Conservatives.

[Canadian observer]

Will we ever get an Election this spring in Canada? Chances seem to be getting remote day by day from what I read on the Radio-Canada website (The French Canadian CBC).

For those who may hardly understand French I put an English translation on my own at the end of the post.

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Index/nouvelles/200404/07/012-martin-elections-rb.shtml

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From Radio-Canada
Not a Spring, but a Fall Election?

Updated on Wednesday, April 7, 2004, 4:57PM.

A declaration from Canada's Prime Minister, Paul Martin, seems to confirm rumours that the next general election expected [this season] might be rescheduled in fall.

Answering a question from a journalist during a press conference held in Rimouski, Quebec, the Prime Minister said: "I decided a long time ago that the most important thing for us is governing. And that's what we're doing. The meeting with President Bush [to be held on April 30] fits in this vision. About the election, we'll have one at the time we declare one as such."

Journalists saw in the PM's answer a sign that he would consider to declare an election in the fall, although he had never hidden his wish to declare an election as soon as possible.

Such unexpected turn may result from the apparent stagnation of support given to the federal Liberals among Quebec voters, which followed the presentation of the Auditor General's report on the federal sponsorship program [in February].

[Canadian observer]

Is he hoping for the Adgate thingy to wear off?

I can fairly guess that the sponsorship scandal hinges on Martin's election prospects more than Liberal hacks would publicly admit. Remember that the original plan for the LPC was to make *gains* (i.e. get 40 seats or more) in Quebec in order to offset losses in Ontario to the Conservatives. The recent unexpected swing in Quebec polls may stand for seven to eight months, based on two swings I witnessed (e.g., the ADQ up-and-down in 2002, and the Charest effect in 1998). If Martin declares an election this fall, his gamble may be that he could beat the Bloc while he lets the CPC regain some organizational strength.

[Canadian observer]

One of the interesting things about this election is that both the LPC and the CPC are looking for gains in province x (Quebec/Ontario) to ofset probable losses in province y (Ontario/BC).
Has this ever happend before?

Interesting question ...

During most of the 20th Century until 1984, the federal Liberals had a lock on all ridings, except the very very very and still very few conservatives who managed to win a seat.  The most notable example of the (I can't really use "these" as this would amount to a grammatical mistake) conservative as such is Roch Lasalle, who was the lone PC MP for Joliette in the 70's and 80's.

History may see the province as a special case. For more than 3 or 4 generations, from the late 19th century until 1984, Quebec continually gave nearly all its seats to the Liberals. Ontarians have a long way to go if they'd like to beat Quebec on that record eh... The exceptions were 1958 and 1911. Such Liberal hegemony had saved the party's skin in many elections, especially those that put them in minority. The most startling instance is in 1972, when Trudeau got in minority. The LPC won 109 seats, while the PC had 107. One may notice that more than 60 of the seats won by Trudeau that year were from Quebec.

For the PC, when we compare his 1984 and 1988 victories, we can see a strategy indirectly. In 1988, the PC won more seats in Quebec than in '84, while there were losses in BC and Ontario. The '88 campaign was centred on the Free Trade Agreement with the US, which was highly supported in Quebec.  Free Trade encountered stronger opposition in BC and Ontario.

For Paul Martin, the task is daunting in Quebec.  Especially in these times marked by the Sponsorship scandal. No federal Liberal leader managed to win a marority of the seats in Quebec since 1980, although Chrétien nearly succeed in 2000.

[Canadian observer]

Martin was a fool for not calling an election immediately after getting the Liberal Leadership, agreed?

Siege40

Had he done so, the new ridings would not have been used... which would have really pissed off people out West...
And what if the the sponsership scandel had broken half walf through the campaign?

The scandal stems from the presentation of the Auditor General's Report before Parliament.  Such report can only be presented while the Parliament is in session.  Hence, it might not have occured, or happened the way it did during the campaign.

[Canadian observer]

Ipsos-Reid poll has published a new poll, the Liberals had supposedly fallen to their lowest level of support since 1993

From Ipsos-Reid and the Globe and Mail.

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=1000 individuals
MoE: 3.1%
LPC 35%
CPC 28%
NDP 18%
BQ 10%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic
Subsample Size: n=62

LPC 41%
CPC 29%
NDP 22%

Quebec
Subsample Size: n=201

Bloc Québécois 45%
LPC 30%
CPC 11%
NDP 10%

Ontario
Subsample Size: n=346

LPC 41%
CPC 32%
NDP 19%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan
Subsample Size: n=53

CPC 36%
LPC 29%
NDP 27%

Alberta
Subsample Size: n=82

CPC 46%
LPC 31%
NDP 12%

British Columbia
Subsample Size: n=120

LPC 30%
CPC 27%
NDP 25%
Green Party 13%

[Canadian observer]

In September of 1993, when the Liberals were polling lower than they are now, what wast the result of the October election expected to be?  A Progressive Conservative majority government?  A Progressive Conservative minority government?  A Liberal minority government?  Did people expect another election to be called.  It's hard to believe the Progressive Conservatives could have been expected in September to win a majority of seats since they were so badly defeated only a month later, winning only two seats.  I know the results of the election were a shock, but what did people expect at various points in that campaign (both before and after the dissolution of parliament, and including election day before the exit polls)?  If anyone could give me some information on this I would appreciate it.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

The 1993 Canadian federal election was the first I witnessed in my life though newspapers and broadcast media.  When former PC PM Kim Campbell dropped the writ in early September 1993, a minority government was widely expected.  At that stage, it was impossible to know which of the PC or the Liberals would form the minority government.

The unpopularity of the PC incumbent government quickly sunk the party's support and lifted off the support for the recently created Reform Party and Bloc Québécois.  Hence, the focus switched on a Liberal minority government.  From what I remember, few pollsters began to point to a Liberal majority government during the campaing last two weeks in mid-October.  Just before the election day, it was common wisdom that the PC was going to take its biggest slash since 1935, people expected the PC to finish with 20 seats.  However their catastrophic result that ensued the '93 campaign was quite unexpected.

[Canadian observer]

Manicouagan (where Ducasse is running. He isn't going to win, but it'll still be interesting)

He should've done like his leader Jack Layton: run in Ontario

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Other interesting races in Quebec (those I know so far)

Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
George Farrah, the Liberal candidate will try to keep the only seat the LPC hold in the Quebec far east.  He isn't immune to defeats, as he himself was defeated when he was MNA in Quebec.

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
In 2000, Liberals won this seat due to BQ infighting during their nomination contest.  This year the Bloquistes seem to have got their act together, will they take back the sovereignist heartland ? Time will tell.

Beauport
This Quebec City riding has Dennis Dawson as Liberal candidate.  He's a friend of Paul Martin, but one should notice that Quebec City voters haven't been friendly lately to Grit Leaders' friends.  Just ask to Jean Pelletier, Jean Chrétien's former right hand man, who was Liberal candidate in Quebec in 1993, and beaten by an unknown BQ candidate. Martin parachuted Dawson in Beauport, thus cancelling a nomination contest in which three women were campaigning... Not a good act for a current PM who'd like more women to be involved in politics.

Louis-Hébert
This seat voted Liberal in 2000, mainly because of the forced mergers of the neighbouring municipalities to Quebec City that were done by the former PQ provincial government.  Voters eventually punished the BQ by proxy.  Let's see if Hélène Sherrer, the Liberal candidate, will be given the medecine back given the current unpopularity of the Liberal provincial government and the Sponsorship Scandal.

Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
This new federal riding covers only two provincial ridings that voted for the right-wing ADQ in the 2003 provincial election. If rumours that a major part of ADQ's provincial votes will translate into support for the Conservatives, this riding may be among the ones where the CPC gets his best score in Quebec.  However one should give the BQ an edge in this Quebec City region riding.

[Canadian observer]

Interesting list. Thanks!
Any possible upsets?

Laval-Les-Îles
Formerly Laval-Ouest, this is one of the four Laval ridings.  Laval is a barometer region, voters give their seat to the party who leads provincially.  If the BQ maintains its lead up to election day, almost no Liberal incumbent on the Île Jésus (Island on which the city of Laval is located) may feel secure.  Provincially only one of the six Laval seats is a Liberal stronghold: Chomedey.  However, Chomedey is divided almost equally between the federal ridings of Laval-Les-Îles and Laval.  Thus Raymonde Folco, the Grit candidate, needs to campaign a little more than count only on half of Chomedey's voters.

Laval
Formerly Laval-Centre, this riding has the other half of Chomedey provincial riding and major parts of three other provincial ridings that are winnable for the PQ, hence friendlier to BQ: Vimont, Milles-Îles and Laval-des-Rapides.  Pierre Lafleur, the Liberal candidate shouldn't take his riding for granted.  Nicole Demers, the BQ candidate, may surprise many in this riding, not because of her candidacy, but because of the characteristics of the riding.

Alfred-Pellan  
Formerly Laval-Est, and I think this riding includes the most francophone areas of Laval.  If Carole-Marie Allard, the Liberal candidate, wins it on election day, she may confirm expectations that she's a great candidate and has personality, and confirm that a vote for the Grits in this areas was a vote for Carole, not necessarily for Paul... However, like all Laval's federal ridings, she needs to campaign hard, as most polls put the BQ well in the lead among francophone voters.

Beauharnois-Salaberry
Liberals targeted and won this riding in 2000, their plan centered on the completion of the highway 30.  Four years later, no popularity for the Liberal overall in the province, and no highway 30 completed... Looks like Liberal might not win...

Lévis-Bellechasse
Christian Jobin, the Liberal candidate and MP of the current riding of Lévis-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, needs to work hard to keep his seat.  His 2000 win is generally attributed to the voters' wrath against the PQ city amalgamation plans.  This time, the Liberals feel the heat and when the 2000 results are transfered in the new riding, the Liberals would've lost.

Saint-Lambert
If Maka Kotto, BQ candidate and black artist, wins the riding, which seems to be at a striking distance for the party, that would mean the Liberals may end up with just 15 seats in the province...

Shefford
Diane St-Jacques, the Liberal candidate, won the riding in 1997, as a PC candidate.  Around 1998-1999, she switched to the Liberals and won the riding in 2000.  Given the depressing state of the support given to the Liberals these days, we may never know if she thought of switching to the BQ in order to win the seat ...

[Canadian observer]

How do you think the ADQ voters will split?

... hard question.  I guess they presently rallied around the BQ given the high score the party has and the low score given to the Conservatives.

If the conservatives want to win one or two seats in Quebec, they'd need to bring back André Bachand, the only PC MP elected in Quebec in 2000.  If the party wants to get most of ADQ's votes, Mario Dumont, ADQ leader, should publicly rally behind the CPC; thus giving a message for his supporters.

[Canadian observer]

Very interesting... thanks.
Are the Provincial and Federal Liberals linked in Quebec (like Manitoba) or seperate (like BC)?

Federal and provincial Liberals in Quebec are institutionally and technically separate entities.  There are still other differences.  The Quebec Liberal Party has 125,000 members, while the LPC has only 60,000 in Quebec.  The QLP can win a majority of the seats in Quebec, while the LPC can't do it since 1980.

It's usually assumed that provincial Liberal voters are usually federal Liberal voters.  However, in 1984 and 1988, the provincial Liberal machine was wholly behind and pushing for the Mulroney's PC.  John Turner wasn't really liked in the province.  A substantial part (neither major nor negligible) of these provincial voters may vote for the Conservatives and the BQ in the upcoming federal election.

[Canadian observer]

In a desperate attempt to find some information that might prove that Ducasse has a longshot at somehow pulling off a miracle...
I did a bit of research into Manicouagan.

Provincially most of it seems to be in the Duplessis riding, which is a fairly safe PQ seat, and gave the ADQ just 11% of the vote (7% below the provincial average).

It was Brian Mulroney's riding from 1984 to 1988

In 1988, the NDP won 14% of the vote in Manicouagan

Historically, it has a strong-ish NDP vote (for Quebec... which isn't saying a lot)

It voted for the Creditistes several times (outside the mainstream)

The MP for most of the riding was beaten by the MP for the smaller part in the BQ primary thingy

It would be good for Democracy for an MP from Quebec not elected because of the sovereignty debate/row/low intensity warfare

I'm spinning this as hard as I can... I'd say that Ducasse is one of those strange "perfect storm" candidates (there are a couple of NDP candidates in the BC interior who also qualify)... if *everything* goes right for him he might have a chance... but I have to admit doubting it...

Seems to me that the Créditistes of the 60's and 70's were right-wing in Quebec.  The areas where the provincial ADQ is strong are areas that were fertile for the Crédidistes generations ago.

[Canadian observer]

Does the largest single party always get to form a minority government?  What if the PC was the largest party, but smaller than Lib+NDP (or Lib+BQ).  Could the Liberals still form a coalition?

Yes it could, and it happened after the 1985 Ontario provincial election.  The Conservatives led by Frank Miller had the highest number of seats at Queens Park, the provincial legislature.  However it turns out that the Ontario Liberals and NDP cut a deal to form the government.  Hence, that was the way David Peterson, the Liberal leader, became Ontario Premier.

[Canadian observer]

Sponsorship Scandal Update: Charles "Chuck" Guité, the public servant thought to be the main responsible for the now infamous Sponsorship program gave a convoluted testimony before the Commons Public Account Committee that sounded as if Martin really had something to do with it.

Guité specifically remembered interference from Martin's staff, who wanted him to ease the way for Earnscliffe, the lobbying firm associated with Martin, in contract bids...  It seems worse by the day for Paul Martin and his pals on Parliament Hill...

A recent rumour tells Martin may drop the writ on May 9 for a vote on June 14.  Again, that might be another rumour because other rumours tell the next round of polls may not be positive for the Liberals.

[Canadian observer]

Environics has published its new semester poll for Spring '04, the Liberals had fallen from their 51% support in Winter 03-04 to 39%.  Martin's personal popularity is also down ... Will he ever drop the writ? My friends aren't betting their shirt on it ...

From Environics.

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=1,940 individuals
MoE: 2.2%
Note: Regional and provincial sub-samples' size not available

LPC 39%
CPC 29%
NDP 19%
BQ 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 43%
CPC 35%
NDP 18%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 45%
LPC 37%
CPC 8%
NDP 8%

Ontario

LPC 46%
CPC 31%
NDP 21%

Manitoba

LPC 35%
CPC 32%
NDP 32%

Saskatchewan

CPC 45%
LPC 27%
NDP 27%

Alberta

CPC 58%
LPC 27%
NDP 11%

British Columbia

LPC 34%
NDP 31%
CPC 30%

[Canadian observer]

Here's a graphic I've done, based on poll results in Canada from July 2000 to present days.  I gathered the results from the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy, their website features a national table of federal party support.  Here's also a link of the Excel document I created in order to do the graph:

http://www.freewebs.com/gatqc/Federal%20Polls%202000-2004.xls

Note: If you can't see the graph, open this link

[Canadian observer]

Finally ... We should get election on June 28th...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1084388088812_79797288///?hub=Canada

[Canadian observer]

Finally ... We should get election on June 28th...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1084388088812_79797288///?hub=Canada

Interesting (capitalising on the poor showings of the CPC in the polls?)... what's your guess as to how well the Liberals will do in Quebec?

The LPC faces two possibilities in Quebec :

1) They screw up badly and end up with 20 seats or less. Quebec is now the province where Martin's personal popularity is the lowest. The sponsorship scandal doesn't seem to have run out its life.  Even though polls put this issue way behind healthcare, most conversations about politics among French Quebecers are about the scandal and the way Quebec Liberal Premier, Jean Charest, is highly unpopular.

2) The other possibility is the Federal Liberals lose just a few seats and end up with 28 to 30 seats.  Thus, Martin sauve les meubles.  As we say in French, Martin at least kept the furniture safe.  For that to happen, the Bloc québécois will have to screw its campaign, which doesn't seem to happen.

Most Martin's advisers from Quebec wanted no election until Fall, because of the scandal.

[Canadian observer]

More news:

1) Former Saskatchewan Premier, Grant Devine (the most corrupt in Saskatchewan's (and probably Canada's) history) is to run as an Independent in Souris-Moose Mountain after being blocked from the CPC nomination.

Al, you don't need brackets and "probably's" for Devine, he was the most corrupt.  At least the CPC has shown they're somewhat principled ...

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...Never heard of before the election and never will after...

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Liberals are really going to lose all their seats in BC ...

[Canadian observer]

For the ones who crave numbers here are two new polls published on CTV (done by Ipsos-Reid) and the National Post (done by Compas [PDF File])

====================

Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe&Mail Poll
Interviews conducted from May 11th to 17th '04

From Ipsos-Reid.

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=2,000 individuals
MoE: 2.2%

LPC 39%
CPC 26%
NDP 15%
BQ 12%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 154

LPC 49%
CPC 29%
NDP 20%

Quebec
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 496

Bloc Québécois 48%
LPC 28%
CPC 9%
NDP 6%

Ontario
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 759

LPC 49%
CPC 27%
NDP 17%

Prairies
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 136

LPC 38%
CPC 33%
NDP 20%

Alberta
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 194

CPC 50%
LPC 31%
NDP 10%

British Columbia
Unweighted Sub-Sample Size: 265

LPC 33%
CPC 31%
NDP 27%

====================

Compas/National Post/Canwest Global Poll
Interviews conducted from May 15th to 19th '04

From Compas (PDF File).

Federal voting intention in Canada

Sample Size: n=1,579 individuals
MoE: 3.1%
Note: Regional Sub-sample sizes not available

LPC 39%
CPC 31%
NDP 17%
BQ 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 50%
CPC 26%
NDP 20%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 43%
LPC 40%
NDP 9%
CPC 6%

Ontario

LPC 42%
CPC 39%
NDP 18%

Prairies

LPC 35%
NDP 32%
CPC 27%

Alberta

CPC 57%
LPC 27%
NDP 14%

British Columbia

CPC 40%
LPC 32%
NDP 26%

[Canadian observer]

How does compas have the CPC within the MoE in Ontario?  Are they nuts?

They might not be nuts.  This is the first poll done just after the presentation of the Ontarian budget by the provincial government, led by Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty.  The public reaction seems highly negative against the Ontario provincial Liberals.  Medias report that may spill over the electoral fortunes of the federal Liberals in this province.