2004 Democratic Primary

[Canadian observer]

Finally, former Conservative Ontario Premier, Mike Harris, won't bid for leadership position of the upcoming Conservative Party of Canada.


Mike Harris, former Conservative Ontario Premier (1995-2002)
From the Globe & Mail

[Canadian observer]

I based my list on the printable maps of the congressional districts (108th Congress), available at nationalatlas.gov


I assume that the Texas districting from which I based the naming is the one implemented by the courts in 2001.

Gerrymandered district are quite hard to name. In theses cases, I tried as far as I can to put a name that wouldn't be geographical, but would refer to a historical event or person.

[Canadian observer]

I don't know, maybe he was trying to make his announcement in French.

[Canadian observer]

Do you feel that naming CD's may cause confusion as after each redistricting a seat may no longer represent much of an area by which it is named?

Naming them by Historical figures may be better.

Personally I for some reason prefer the current numbering system but I your work is pretty interesting nevertheless.

I have no idea on the confusion naming the Districts might cause, but it would be interesting to evaluate a general hypothesis which would assume that the fact that a district possess a name enhances voters' sense of belonging to a district, thus enhancing the awareness of a greater number of people to district boundary changes.

[Canadian observer]

Harris: "Bonjewer, Jeemaple en Godfather IV, et moy je'detestey le loosing et la election to le Liberele merdey Paul Martin.
Soo Jai will not beecoom le capitain of le Titanic(le CPC).
Oil Resivoir!"

Hahem!!   I think Harris needs a couple of centuries to be coached in French.  Too bad, life expectancy is still under 100.

[Canadian observer]

I've just learnt from my cousin(who by the way has got the hell out of BC and is currently in Winnipeg), that David Miller(in effect NDP) has won the Toronto mayoral election.
But he doubts that it'll have a lot of effect on the federal election.

Not at all...  If it would, almost all Ontario's urban seats would be orange (I mean in NDP terms, not in Northern Irish .

[Canadian observer]

Although recent Canadian federal elections do lack competiveness, Canadians are not under a "repressive progressive governement".  Hyperbolic references to Zimbabwe, Cuba and North Korea are a little displaced.

Notwithstanding the Federal Liberals' rethoric, Canada's economy is strong, the Canadian dollar gains strength, the federal budget is in surplus (although few provinces are in the red, but not as dramatic as in many US states), and unemployement is low.  All that under a capitalist market system with, I shall risk to tell, a little more regulation and government intervention than what is the case South of our borders.  Needless to say that such current economic context isn't prone to revolutions.

Speaking of "progessive"... Realpolitik, I hope you don't find Paul Martin 100% progessive Have you checked this site : http://www.flyourflag.ca

[Canadian observer]

Ernie Eves has resigned as leader of the Ontario Tories.

Where have you read it ? I haven't heard of that...

[Canadian observer]

A BQ M.P has defected to the LPC, the CA has voted to merge with the PC's, the PC's vote on it TODAY, and a poll for CBC shows the LPC on 58%, the NDP on 18% and the soon-to-be CPC on 13%...

The MP's name is Robert Lanctôt, from the riding of Châteauguay (Southwest from Montreal)

Robert Lanctôt, MP of Châteauguay, Québec

I think he's the sixth Bloc Québécois MP to switch Liberal.  Needless to say he and the five others want to keep their seat.  I'd bet the BQ won't get more than 10 seats in the next federal election.

But one thing I wouldn't bet on is the possibility that the NDP might be the official opposition after next election.  The poll you're referring to is from SOM, and when they asked for party support, they nicknamed the yet-to-be-created Conservative Party of Canada "the new party of the united right".  Not that I oppose the SOM definition of the party (which is factually true), but then why didn't they term the NDP as a "left-wing party" ? ... or BQ as "French Quebecer Separatist party" ? Such aforementioned labels do sink popular support.

The results nevertheless show how Canadians are fond of centrism and hate left-wing or right-wing labels.

The SOM poll was published in every major newspaper in Canada (English and French) and I still don't understand why no journalist openly questionned the apparent methodology when the official SOM results give no mention of the "Conservative Party of Canada", which should be the official name of the new party of the united right.  That's not a way to make reliable polls...

Finally, I still stand by a poll published in the Globe and Mail, which used the CPC name.  I don't remember the exact numbers but the Liberals were roughly at 45%, the CPC at 29%, and the NDP at 16%.

[Canadian observer]

The PC's have voted to leave a life raft and join a sinking ship...

Progressive Conservative on a life raft since 2000 ? Until december 6th I rather saw them in a leaky Soviet submarine like in the K-19 movie...

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As I'd say in French Clark n'est pas une référence. He won the 1979 federal election more because voters were more frustrated of Trudeau Liberals than in love with the PC.  And at the time he presented the 79-80 budget, he forgot to remember he was running a minority government... (The Liberals and the NDP promptly rebuked the Clark governement and election ensued in Feb 1980). Clark couldn't even get a strong support from his party members in the 1983 PC congress (66% of the delegates).

Before the 1993 wipe-out of the PC, and the 1984 victory of Mulroney, Red Tories were always a minority within their own party.  I once read somewhere that Robert L. Stansfield (PC Leader from 1967 to 1976, Former Nova Scotia Premier), a Red Tory too, felt like that.  The upcoming CPC won't be an electoral success in the upcoming election.  However, I feel it's like history repeating when the Progressives merged with the Conservatives in 1942, to ultimately create the Progressive Conservative Party.

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To the Green Party ? O.K. I assume I might have given a wrong answer...

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Sound analysis, but the current unknown is how the Ontarian electorate will behave.

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And when it's not because of slaughtering parties, it's because some hara-kiri themselves ... (I think about the PC)

[Canadian observer]

Speaking of movies, have you seen Love actually?

I loved it

[Canadian observer]

And now Brison has defected to the Liberals... why would someone vote FOR the merger and then leave?

In one word: opportunism

[Canadian observer]

No...but I have heard that it's an improvement on the stuff Grant usually appears in.

Grant's not the lead actor in that movie ... Am I making a link ?

[Canadian observer]

I see President Bush has welcomed teh Canadians in on the bidding to the contracts in Iraq.  Good move.  Welcome aboard.

Based on what I remember from reading the news, Canadian enterprises are generally going to bid for contracts related to building and repairing utilities and public infrastructures.

More and more Canadian companies are owned by US business and I suspect that influenced Bush on doing an exception for Canada.  Hence, Canada and US will both prosper ... (Of course, we must take notice that an increasing number of US companies are owned by Canadians)

Canadian firms can bid for most of the US military contracts.  That began with the signature of the Ogdensburg Agreement in 1940.

[Canadian observer]

Nice to see you back again

Anyhow... some rumours (not sure how accurate any of them are) :

1. Dennis Mills (LPC, Toronto-Danforth) will not seek re-election
2. The NDP and the LPC have both been trying to recruit former Saskatchwan Premier, Roy Romanow and former BC Premier, Ujjal Dosanjh as candidates for the 2004 elections.
3. Stockwell Day will run for leadership of the CPC.

Again I repeat that I can't be sure of the accuracy of any rumour.

1. That would be surprising, he really seems wanting to keep his seat and bar Layton the access to the Commons, a thing Martin may like if it occurs.  The only way the rumour might be true is if the PM proposes him a patronage nomination (i.e., an embassy in a far away land ... )

2. That has credibility.  I heard more about the rumour Romanow would more tempted to run with the LPC than the NDP.

3. I don't think so.  If he felt very uncomfortable during the 2000 election, he may follow the French proverb : Chat échaudé craint l'eau froide.

[Canadian observer]

Latest Ipsos-Reid poll:

LPC 48%
CPC 19%
NDP 16%
BQ   10%
Grn   04%

And Ipsos-Reid has a right wing bias...

The NDP could catch the progressive conservatives?

I will believe it when I see it in May ...

[Canadian observer]

Is 10% nationally for the Bloc good or bad? (From its own ersective, I mean)

10% nationally means that the BQ is at 38-40% in Quebec. A recent poll in January put the sovereignist party at 38%.  That's an improvement for them in terms of poll numbers. Last year they were sinking under 25%. However one must keep in mind that polls tend to overestimate the sovereignist support in Quebec. Still, my guess is the BQ's going to get a hard time at keeping 12 seats or more in the next election.

[Canadian observer]

Canadian Observer is back after a long absence

Eh... University keeps me quite busy

[Canadian observer]

Since the sum (PC+CA) doesn't equal the sum of its parts (CPC) then where are those voters going and where are they coming from?  Are former PC voters switching to Liberal (or even former CA voters?)

Former CA voters seem to follow the new Conservative party, but I wouldn't bet on the behavior of former PC voters before the CPC leadership vote and the upcoming federal election.  Of course, a couple of them are making their mind and voting for the Liberals or the New Democrats.

The CPC leadership vote is decided on a county-by-county basis(calculated with accumulated points).  I'm not aware of the details, but it makes the contest more challenging for Stephen Harper (former CA leader), and easier for Belinda Stronach (Ontarian businesswoman, former CEO of Magna Int'l) and Tony Clement (Former Minister of heath in Ernie Eves government).  Belinda gets an even more easier ride now that bulk bying of party membership cards had been permitted again (She has the money ! ).


Belinda Stronach


Stephen Harper


Tony Clement

If I'm right, currently no polls among the supporters have been done on the upcoming CPC leadership contest.  So in the possible event that an Ontarian wins the leadership, Conservative MP's in the Atlantic might have more chances to get re-elected, and the hemorrage of support from the old PC to the Liberals may stop.

In Quebec, almost any former PC organizer now works for the Liberals.  It’s a desert for the Conservative, and yet it’s going to account for roughly 25% of the leadership vote.

[Canadian observer]

A CROP-La Presse poll on federal vote intention in Quebec had been done right after the emerging of the sponsorship scandal.  I don't know if the affair will still run in the coming months, but in the short term, that might be a blow for the Liberals...

CROP-La Presse Polls

Date : Jan 15-24,'04
Liberal Party : 51%
Bloc québécois : 33%
Other : 16%

Date : Feb 11-12,'04
Liberal Party : 34%
Bloc québécois : 47%
Other : 19%

From Radio-Canada

[Canadian observer]

Finally Duceppe, BQ leader, can thank Martin ...

[Canadian observer]

I would guess that it'll only have a short term impact in Quebec, the decline of seperatism isn't likely to get stopped by a funding scandal (if it was John Swinney would be the First Minister of Scotland now [shudders]), and it's hardly had an effect at all in the Atlantic provinces... but it *might* be more lasting out West... if only because of an innate mistrust (in the Praries)/paranoia (in Alberta) of all things Ottawa.

Martin will win the election regardless, but unless this blows over he could be lumbered with a minority government.

In Quebec, electorally, there's a difference between separatism and the tendency to vote for a separatist party.  I once told you that Quebeckers, and Canadians as well, do like split their ticket when voting, the same apply when voting for the Parti Québécois in provincial elections and then vote No in the ensuing referendum.  Others vote for the right wing Action démocratique (ADQ) and then vote for Quebec sovereignty.

The scandal will not of course cause a surge of separatism, but it has the capacity to put the Liberals back to the bottom of the barrel they were in the 80's.

Another poll was done by Ipsos-Reid, and was published today on the Globe and Mail.  Even though the poll firm may be right wing (even though, as a French Canadian, all English Canadian polling firms would look the same), this one is a little more mathematically accurate because of its sample size (n=1,055 MoE=3.1%)

From Ipsos-Reid

Federal voting intention in Canada
LPC 35%
CPC 27%
NDP 17%
BQ 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 47%
CPC 32%
NDP 12%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 45%
LPC 31%
CPC 10%
NDP 8%

Ontario

LPC 41%
CPC 26%
NDP 21%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

NDP 34%
LPC 29%
CPC 28%

Alberta

CPC 58%
LPC 20%
NDP 8%

British Columbia

CPC 32%
LPC 27%
NDP 27%
Green Party 9%

[Canadian observer]

BTW I wouldn't worry about the CPC winning... they won't be able to win a majority and the NDP will end up propping up a minority LPC government.
That's how Trudeau got started...

Trudeau started with a majority government in 1968.  He got in minority after the 1972 federal election, until the writ was dropped in '74.

It's been commonly assumed in Canadian federal politics that when a governing party is in minority, the NDP becomes the power broker.  However, we're at different times.  The current Canadian federal party system is 2+2, with 2 major parties vying for government (LPC & CPC) and 2 third parties (NDP & BQ).  If the recent Ipsos poll would stand for electoral results, the BQ would surely get 45 to 55 seats.  I presently doubt the NDP would match such number in the upcoming election (Although Ed Broadbent did it in '88, I expect Layton's troops to get a minimum of 20 seats).

If the current electoral trends stand, there are chances that Liberals get in such a minority that the NDP wouldn't even have the required number of seats to prop up a Liberal government.  The LPC has currently around 175 seats in the Commons, if we substract a possible loss of 10 ridings in the West, 15 in Quebec, and 25 (minimally, because of the strength of the NDP and an expected Conservative surge at around 30%), we get 125 seats for the Liberals.  If Layton wants to ensure he be the power broker, he needs to get around 30 seats.  Otherwise Martin might have to collaborate with the BQ (enough to create another scandal... ).

According to a Globe and Mail article I read, Jack Layton already stated its terms for negotiation.

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Personally I find quite premature from him, he's giving reason for Martin to choose the BQ (the latter wouldn't be interested in PR as the current 1PTP system greatly favours the Bloc) if the latter obtain a minority government.  He'd need to be reminded that federal politics ain't the Toronto City Council.

[Canadian observer]

Looks like it gets worse for Martin...

For the first time since under the leadership of John Turner, a Liberal MP, John Bryden (Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot, ON), quits the caucus.  He's rumoured to switch to the federal Conservatives.

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John Bryden had always been a troublemaker for the Liberals.  I suspect his upcoming decision on joining the CPC is based on the fact that in the last 2000 federal election, the old PPC and AC had a total number of votes higher than the LPC in his riding.  Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Aldershot, ON, is among the likely catches for the Conservatives.  Looks like plain ol' opportunism to me, but that makes a break from the long standing trend of opposition MP's virant le capôt (switching) for the governing Liberals.

Le scandale des commandites, the sponsorship scandal, seems to scare away some prospective star candidates from the Liberals... We still have yet to hear from former Liberal New Brunswick Premier, Frank McKenna...

In the eyes of the Martinite, Bryden's crime might have been that he didn't support Paul Martin in the last party leadership contest, he supported John Manley.  More and more Liberal riding conventions are getting nasty and messy...

For Bryden's riding, the local Liberal association was anyway going to eject him for a pro-Martin candidate.

In Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, ON, Sheila Copps, former Minister and Deputy PM in the Chrétien administration (and tossed away in the backbench by Martin in December), is battling for her nomination against Tony Valeri, newly sworned as Minister for Transport.  She accuses Martin of barring women from Liberal nominations (needless to say that she also accuses Martin of knowing something on the sponsorship scandal) ...

In St-Maurice-Champlain, QC, Martin barred Stephen Hogue, former Chrétien's political advisor, from running for the riding's Liberal nomination.  Martin's team rationale : they want more women nominated among the LPC candidates ...

In Beauport, QC, Martin's team parachuted a pro-Martin male candidate, Dennis Dawson, former communication advisor.  Three women were previously battling for nomination ...

Stories like that keep piling by the week.  I'm shaking my head in disbelief in seeing what's going on (and wrong) with Martin.  He looked so powerful 10 days ago, now he'd look like a pale reminder of Turner.

[Canadian observer]

A new poll has been published, support for parties seemed to remain stable over the last week

From Ipsos-Reid

Federal voting intention in Canada
LPC 36%
CPC 27%
NDP 17%
BQ 11%

Regional breakdown

Atlantic

LPC 39%
CPC 36%
NDP 18%

Quebec

Bloc Québécois 44%
LPC 30%
CPC 10%
NDP 9%

Ontario

LPC 46%
CPC 29%
NDP 18%

Manitoba & Saskatchewan

CPC 31%
NDP 29%
LPC 29%

Alberta

CPC 47%
LPC 28%
NDP 18%

British Columbia

CPC 33%
LPC 26%
NDP 26%
Green Party 6%