Danish Local Elections November 16th 2021

[Jens]

Yes, I remember Enhedslisten were predicted to come first in Copenhagen last time too...

Although, as I recall that was mostly in polls quite far out from the election. The polls closer to the election showed a Social Democratic lead, although narrower than the relatively clear difference at the end (27.6% - 18.4%).

If I was to make an argument for why they will hold up better this time it's primarily candidate quality. Their lead candidate last time, Ninna Hedeager Olsen, had very little experience and performed quite poorly. This time they are running experienced ex-MP Line Barfoed. And conversely the Social Democrats aren't running an incumbent mayor as lead candidate this time, although Sophie Hæstorp Andersen as the leader of the Capital Region is a familiar name.
Another point in their favour is the collapse of the Alternative, who won 10.5% in 2017. Those voters should be more likely to go for the Red-Greens (and SPP).

I agree with Diouf. Barfoed is a much stronger candidate and quite the new thing for Enhedslisten to bring in what is basically an outsider. But Hedeager has really showed that the Enhedslisten bench in Cph is very weak for such a high profile position. One thing that surprises me is that the Socialdemocratic machine hasn’t attacted her yet. I remember back in ‘09 where the polls showed that SF was hitting 30 % i Cph and suddenly there was some rather nasty attacks on Bo Asmus Kjeldgaard, the lead for SF.

[Jens]

Polling day has arrived. Polls close at 20.00, and normally the first results quickly start to come in. For the large cities, we might have to wait until around midnight for a clear result.

To follow the election, the obvious two places are the two main TV channels

https://www.dr.dk
https://tv2.dk/

Since this is the local and regional elections, it can also make sense to follow the regional channels if one is particularly interested in some parts of the country.

Northern Jutland: https://www.tv2nord.dk/   
Mid-Western Jutland: https://www.tvmidtvest.dk/
Eastern Jutland: https://www.tv2ostjylland.dk/
Southern Jutland: https://www.tvsyd.dk/
Funen: https://www.tv2fyn.dk/
Zealand + islands: https://www.tv2east.dk/
Copenhagen metro area: https://www.tv2lorry.dk/
Bornholm: https://tv2bornholm.dk/

The official result page is https://kmdvalg.dk

In theory, I might have to go to sleep at a reasonable time as I have to get up early and be a part of the recount tomorrow, but let's see how it goes

Voting Christian Democrat in the region (anti-Aarhus, pro-decentralization vote), and DPP locally (I want to support the good Liberal mayor, but don't want to condone Liberals for their behaviour nationally. DPP is in electoral alliance with the Liberal locally, and, although you never know 100%, seems very likely to support the Liberal mayor for another term)

Which municipality do you live in? I voted SF to nobodys surprice ;-) - but actually had to think about it since I couldn’t vote for myself

[Jens]

The first municipality is fully counted. The island Ærø with 5.187 voters.
The big story is the local list ÆrøPlus which has gained 10.6% to 21.0%. That means they are only 0.4% behind the island's biggest party, the Social Democrats. The Liberals are almost halved down to 9.5%.
In the 15 seat council, Social Democrats get 4 seats, ÆrøPlus and Conservatives each 3 seats, and 1 seat for Liberals, DPP, SPP and two other local lists, Ærøs Fremtid and Ærø i Centrum. Sounds like an interesting negotiations for mayor there.

The lead candidate for ÆrøPlus, Inga Thomas, changed party from Socialdemokratiet during the last term, so no love lost between S and ÆrøPlus…
She has 8 children, by the way :-)