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MODU
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« on: September 15, 2008, 07:36:15 AM »


Today will definitely be a down day.  Will it be 300 points or 150 points will be the big question.  On the other hand, how the market handles the issue the rest of the week can play a bigger roll.  The government allowed the market to handle these two institutions unlike in the past month.  Bank of America is buying one and the market will absorb the remains of the other, just as a free market economy does for any other entity.  What I am liking is that the other banking institutions have agreed to announce plans on how they are going to improve their bottom lines by becoming even more transparent and diversified.  This jolt to the sector is shaking out a lot of dead wood and allowing the sector to regrow.  Get your checkbooks ready to buy some stocks.
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MODU
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2008, 08:40:59 AM »

The DOW just took a huge fall from -100 to -270.

The futures were trading down 337 points, so that wasn't unexpected.
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MODU
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2008, 08:59:54 AM »


Lehman Brothers has dropped to 30 cents/share while Merrill Lynch is up $4.33/share.  This is the way the market is suppose to work.
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MODU
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2008, 10:49:16 AM »

Listen, Duke & Duke totally collapsed back in 1983 when Dan Aykroyd and Eddie Murphy received an advance copy of the orange crop report.  If Wall Street could survive that, it can survive this.

HAHAHA
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MODU
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2008, 12:11:52 PM »


Before we get too chicken little, that wouldn't even classify as the biggest one-day drop this month.

Also, the market is known to swing wildly towards the end as people either rush in for bargains or panic sell.  Where it is now isn't as important as where it is at 4pm.
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MODU
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2008, 12:54:39 PM »


Before we get too chicken little, that wouldn't even classify as the biggest one-day drop this month.

Which says a lot about overall instability this month.

Yet when you consider that we're still over the low in July, it hasn't been that bad.  I just wish I could day trade.
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MODU
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2008, 03:11:44 PM »


Thud.  -504 in one day.  Lehman Brothers dropped to 18 cents/share.  Washington Mutual dropped to $2.00/share.  Now, the question is, what will tomorrow bring?  I will say that there will be more early morning sell-off, but it will balance out in the afternoon, closing above the 11,000 mark.  
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MODU
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2008, 08:41:20 AM »

I wonder what will happen today. Europe went down as well now, though not as bad. And it looks like Goldman Sachs is in trouble as well.

After a morning sell-off, basically filling yesterdays orders and responding to changes overseas after market hours, I expect the market to stabalize and close over 11K.  A 500 point drop is an overreaction, and that typically leads to a correction the following day (assuming no surprises pop-up during trading hours).  With oil prices continuing to fall, there is enough of a positive lift to balance out any minor negative pressure.
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MODU
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Posts: 22,023
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2008, 10:42:06 AM »


That will probably depend on if this multi-bank stability plan that the banks are currently working on (pooling resources together to loan to struggling banks and/or buy some of their liabilities) works or not.  I think it is a smart business plan by the collective to stabalize their own sector.  However, you are going to see a hit on the insurance companies as they start paying out for all the damages in the gulf, though the individuals and companies that receive their payments will stimulate the home construction companies and local realty markets by buying homes that have been sitting in foreclosure (rather than rebuilding).

Yes, but will it be enough to get the markets back to where they were before it becomes time to sell again.

See above.
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MODU
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2008, 10:51:01 AM »

Well, they can conceal the damage as much as they want, but they will still be losing money pretty badly. Then again, banks are less likely to fail. ...but if they still fail despite the plan, it will be a pretty crushing loss.

Which is why you should diversify your savings into multiple FDIC insured institutions.  That way, if a bank/banks does/do fail, then you are covered. 
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MODU
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« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2008, 10:44:58 PM »

What are the chances for AIG to explode?
How big would that hit Wall Street?

AIG has been bailed out this evening.
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MODU
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Posts: 22,023
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2008, 03:36:17 PM »

The Down is down 450 at close. The traders jumped off a cliff to sell off in the last 30 minutes. It was -300 at 3:30.

The last 30 minutes are always the 'fun' times, since people tend to close out their trade books by then. 
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MODU
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Posts: 22,023
United States


« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2008, 03:40:26 PM »

Is this now White Thursday the day the crisis ends?

Just a natural correction to an over-reactive market.
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