I don't know...I think the latest round of Mason-Dixons reflect a closer race than that.
Compare the latest M-D results with the 2000 election:
State 2000 M-D Diff
FL TIED GOP +3 GOP +3
CO GOP +8 GOP +6 Dem +2
MO GOP +3 GOP +5 GOP +2
NV GOP +4 GOP +10 GOP +6
NH GOP +1 GOP +3 GOP +2
NC GOP +13 GOP +8 Dem +5
OH GOP +4 GOP +1 Dem +3
WV GOP +6 GOP +5 Dem +1
IA TIED GOP +6 GOP +6
OR TIED Dem +1 Dem +1
PA Dem +4 Dem +1 GOP +3
WI TIED TIED TIED
Six show a gain for Republicans, five a gain for Democrats.
The mean is a gain for Bush of less than 0.5%.
So I don't see at all how these show a Bush lead of 3-4% at all. It's more likely that they show a popular vote tied, seeing as how Bush lost the popular vote by about 0.5% in 2000.
One thing your listing there show is, except for one state, MD polls showed the winner of each state. That's pretty good considering how close things were last round.
