How likely is this map?

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Bush over-performed with the hispanic vote and only lost it by 10 percentage points nationally, had he lost it by 20 points it could have been enough to change that outcome.

Bush probably did lose the '04 Hispanic vote by 20 points, or close to it. Most studies of the Hispanic vote post-election concluded that exit polls inflated Bush's numbers by at least a few points.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Obama might need unemployment down a point in the next year and some to win by 7 again.  Seems fairly likely but who knows.

Eh, I don't think there are many economists who forecast that unemployment is going to be down that much, even if we avert a double dip.

Anyway, I voted the third option because Bachmann still has a shot.