Two Souths?

[Smash255]

Those Northern Immigrants coming down South (Im actually thinking about doing it too) are actually pretty Republican, but they are moderate on Social issues.

Not really that Republican.  Now many of them may have been the old school Rockefeller Republicans, but have left the GOP in recent years.  Look at the three biggest transplant areas, Northern VA, the research Triangle and the Charlotte area, all of which have trended HARD towards the Dems.

[Smash255]

South Carolina has been an exception to the trend of the South Atlantic Coast, which I would not include Florida as being part of.  We've only swung from 2000 to 2008 as much as national swing, while Georgia, North Carolina, and Virgina have swung several percentage points more to the Democrats than the national swing.

Didn't two Republicans have unexpectedly close re-elections in the House though?  True, South Carolina is probably the lagger as far as the South Atlantic trending towards the Democrats goes.  But the trend is there, isn't it?

It did swing a bit, but that may have been due to Obama's margin overall as it had no real trend compared to the national average.  The fact Obama did better with the white vote than Gore did leads you to believe the migration patters might start to have some impact.  My parents are moving to SC, right outside Charlotte, literally a 1/2 mile over the NC border at the extreme northern tip of the Panhandle in Lancaster County.  SC may make a slight Democratic move, but nowhere near the levels NC & VA have moved, it will likely take a double digit PV victory for Obama to take it in 2012.