You guys know Penna. politics better than any of us. I have read the Specter thread and your comments with interest. And I have no agenda here except to get your opinions and analysis.
1. Was Specter certain to lose to Toomey in a primary?
2. If so, why would Penna. voters ditch the old fellow? Is it because of his health? His socially moderate positions? Support for the stimulus? Or something else?
3. If Specter was trying to insure re-election by switching parties, how will that make a difference? Instead of Toomey beating him in the primary, he beats him in November, right? So how is this opportunism?
LOL -- I am not saying Specter isn't being an opportunist. In another thread, I noted that he probably IS...as are many party switchers. But I still don't have answers to the above questions and would be grateful for your help as I think this through. Thanks!
1. Pretty much, his chances in a Primary was quite slim
2. As Phil stated, he has never been all that popular with the GOP base. He barely defeated Toomey in 2004. Also, the GOP electorate in PA has shifted well to the right since then. As the national GOP has gone further and further right, the old school moderate to liberal Rockefeller type Republicans have been jumping ship in droves (think moose). More than 200,000 voters in PA have shifted from the GOP to the Democrats. A large portion of this shift has been in Specter's base of suburban Philly.
