10%. We are throwing away this seat. Hopefully Specter can pull it out.
Specter has less of a chance to win.
You at least have to be somewhat competitive there, and you can't get slapped around like a red headed step child, which is what would happen to Toomey, especially going up against Schwartz, Murphy, Sestak.
Toomey would not lose as badly as Santorum and plenty of Dems admit that. The fact that he's not seen as that much of a culture warrior helps and turnout most likely won't favor you guys in 2010 so it won't be 60% to 40% in a lot of these counties again but you'll continue to ignore this just like the rest of your friends here.
Toomey might not be as controversial as Santorum, but he is just about as conservative, which won't sit to well with many people in the SE. Combine that with a likely Dem candidate from the SE that is a good fit in that part of the state (something Casey was not) + the SE being even more Democratic than it was in 06 (something unlikely to change) and you likely have very similar numbers for Toomey in the SE that Santorum had.
And how do you know that the conditions are favorable a year and a half out?
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You have to concede the fact that Toomey will likely emphasize fiscal issues which voters outside of Philadelphia are moderate to still slightly conservative. Santorum also pissed off many suburban "soccer moms" with some of his comments in his book. Remember he won that vote in 1994 and 2000. Toomey has a clean slate with those voters unlike Santorum. Now, you are right on the fact that the Philadelphia suburbs have shifted dramatically leftward over the past 20 years, but some areas of PA have actually trended conservative namely Western PA (strong McCain swing, VERY strong GOP 'trend') and Northeast (narrow McCain swing, strong trend)/South Philly(see western PA). We can't be too cocky with Toomey and he still has areas to work with.
On the other had some areas once considered very conservative have actually trended strongly Dem within the infamous "T" and some have suggested upstate PA maybe trending like a Vermont. Another interesting state you can compare this to is Massachusetts. I kinda knew this was gonna happen- Eastern MA swung and trended very strongly GOP while western MA and the Berkshires trended very strongly Dem. In fact one country in MA, Plymouth, Obama only won by single digits while Gore and Kerry got double. Could the GOP have a resurgance in the white urban north? Possibly. McCain also won on Staten Island while Al Gore also did as well (not counting 2004 for 9/11 purposes). I could definitely see the GOP looking for a beachhead in places like South Boston, Staten Island, and NE/South Philly.
Phil does have a point. Who knows what will happen?
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When you look at the SE and compare it to 2006, you have some factors that favor Toomey, and other factors that do not. Barring a horrible year for the Dems those factors will likely cancel each other out, and the SE will likely be close to what is was at in 2006.
Poll
