NY-20 Final Predictions

[Smash255]

Murphy 53.14
Tedisco 46.86

[Smash255]

I'm changing my prediction, Tedisco will win:

Tedisco 53%
Murphy 47%

why?

I was looking over the internals of the Siena poll again. The Siena poll breaks down by counties/area. They have Tedisco winning 49-43 in Saratoga/Rensselaer which are two out of the three highest population counties in the district. Also, they have Murphy winning 58-29 in Essex/Warren/Washington, which is hard to believe considering Obama only won Essex by 13, and Warren and Washington were 50/50 races. Also, I believe Tedisco will get more than the 64% of Republicans as shown. Furthermore, there are 9% of Republicans undecided compared to only 5% of Democrats.

The internals always have a higher MOE than the poll as a whole because the sample sizes are smaller, but just because the internals might be a bit off doesn't mean the poll is a bit off as it tends to cancel out.

[Smash255]

Murphy - 51.88614%
Tedisco - 48.11386%

Tedisco is a loser with a sh**tty haircut.  Murphy is just a fag who can't smile.  Murphy wins.  The media will hail the special election as a victory for Obama and a vote of confidence on the stimulus, when in fact the race will be lost because Tedisco is a horrible candidate.

Fact of the matter is Murphy picked up steam when this became a race between an Obama Democrat and a National Republican rather than a local race between Murphy and Tedisco....