Senator Gillibrand

[Smash255]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and pro-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

Reid knows that any Democrat with a pulse will win reelection in New York.  Gillibrand is both pro-gun and mostly pro-life and that is a horrible fit for New York as a whole. 

I edited my post above a bit.

Um, I don't know.  I don't think she'd be a horrible fit, at the very least she'd scare away any legitimate Republican opposition.  Israel might be able to primary her, but by then it'd be too late.

Also, Gillibrand actually looks like Hillary:


And thus could slip into her shoes a little easier as far as PR goes.  She'd need to slip a little bit to the left, but that's not undoable.  She's a great fundraiser.

And more importantly she'd appease the Upstate and Women's interest groups that are threatening Paterson's reelection.  I'm skeptical either Reid or Pelosi would cut off Paterson's economic stimulus funding over him picking anyone that's currently on his shortlist.  But Paterson would rather have local organizations endorse and campaign for his reelection than get an extra 10% in federal funding...

Do you really think Democrats want to have to deal with an embarassing special election loss for NY-20?  That is why I think Isreal being picked is more likely, since Democrats would almost certainly hold NY-02.  It would signal a real shift against Dems if they didnt hold NY-02. 

NY-02 is pretty much a lock for the Dems.   Israel landslides every election, Obama won the district pretty easily, Dems have a several point registration edge in the district, and a much deeper and stronger bench.

[Smash255]

Do they really have any sway?  What threats or benefits can they provide Paterson?

They could cut off stimulus funds for the projects he wants. 

Over one district?  I mean, Reid and endless Upstate politicians could hurt Paterson too!  Reid wants a moderate who can win reelection and make Democratic senators seem more pro-guns and pro-gay than Caroline would project.

I refuse to completely put all my chips on Gillibrand though.  I have them evenly split between her, Brown, and Suozzi.

Reid knows that any Democrat with a pulse will win reelection in New York.  Gillibrand is both pro-gun and mostly pro-life and that is a horrible fit for New York as a whole. 

I edited my post above a bit.

Um, I don't know.  I don't think she'd be a horrible fit, at the very least she'd scare away any legitimate Republican opposition.  Israel might be able to primary her, but by then it'd be too late.

Also, Gillibrand actually looks like Hillary:


And thus could slip into her shoes a little easier as far as PR goes.  She'd need to slip a little bit to the left, but that's not undoable.  She's a great fundraiser.

And more importantly she'd appease the Upstate and Women's interest groups that are threatening Paterson's reelection.  I'm skeptical either Reid or Pelosi would cut off Paterson's economic stimulus funding over him picking anyone that's currently on his shortlist.  But Paterson would rather have local organizations endorse and campaign for his reelection than get an extra 10% in federal funding...

Do you really think Democrats want to have to deal with an embarassing special election loss for NY-20?  That is why I think Isreal being picked is more likely, since Democrats would almost certainly hold NY-02.  It would signal a real shift against Dems if they didnt hold NY-02. 

NY-02 is pretty much a lock for the Dems.   Israel landslides every election, Obama won the district pretty easily, Dems have a several point registration edge in the district, and a much deeper and stronger bench.

Yes it is.  Lazio held it in the 1990's, but the district was more Republican and included more Conservative parts of Suffolk that are now in NY-03.  Even when Lazio left in 2000, Isreal easily picked up the seat. 

The district also added liberal areas in east-central Nassau (Plainview, Syosset, Jericho, Old Bethpage).  The pre-redistricting district which is what Israel won in 2000 would be a pretty easy Democratic victory in an open election now, the district now is pretty much a Dem lock in an open race.    it wouldn't surprise me if they make NY-02 a bit less Democratic after the 2010 census in order to give the dems a better chance here in NY-03.  In fact I would be surprised if they don't.

[Smash255]

Nothing's lock safe in a special election, especially something like NY-02.

The district as a whole gives the Dems an obvious edge, however the Dems bigger advantage comes from the candidates.  The Dems have a slew of candidates they can run, the GOP basically has no bench at all. 

[Smash255]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.  Palin, the one GOP star guaranteed to create crowds, probably wouldn't create the same kinds of crowds in LI

Speaking of Obama, one of the strong possible candidates for the Dems in NY-02 if Israel would get the nod for Senate is Suffolk County Majority Leader Jon Cooper, who was the only elected NY Democrat to endorse Obama over Clinton in the Primary.

[Smash255]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.  Palin, the one GOP star guaranteed to create crowds, probably wouldn't create the same kinds of crowds in LI

Palin would be anethma in liberal Jewish areas like Syosset and most others as well. 

Agreed something tells me Palin would do more to drive up the vote in liberal upper middle class areas such as Plainview, Syosset, Jericho & Woodbury than she would anywhere else in the district

[Smash255]

Besides, if it looked close[ish]. Obama could do a couple appearances.

How quickly do you want Obama to lose his "political capital"? 

If it's close, Obama donates a TV ad or radio ad.

He spent some on Oregon and it paid off with Merkley.  It all depends on how carefully and skillfully he deploys it.

Agreed, but its pretty much a mute point because he won't be needed.  The district has a decent Democratic lean, the Dems have a much deeper bench and a much better organization than the Republicans in the district.  

[Smash255]

btw I think the Post is the second worst reporter on New York politics, after the AP

The Post is worse than the AP.

[Smash255]

hopefully both Paterson and Caroline get primaried in 2010.

They will.

I mean, lose, not just be challenged.

I suppose Cuomo is likely to seek one of them (whichever he feels would be easiest?)  if he picks Caroline to go after Paterson may be lucky enough to escape unscathed.  otherwise Israel or an upstater or one of those NYC lesbians can go get Caroline while Cuomo guns down Paterson.

Israel has stated that he winn stand by Paterson's pick if its not him and won't mount a Primary challenge.

[Smash255]

btw I think the Post is the second worst reporter on New York politics, after the AP

The Post is worse than the AP.

Impossible

Sad, but true

[Smash255]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/01/clinton-kennedy.html

New York’s Democratic governor, in Washington for tomorrow's presidential inauguration, met with reporters today and indicated he would probably find someone to fill Hillary Clinton’s U.S. Senate seat "by this weekend.”

And, contrary to reports suggesting Paterson’s mind is made up (Caroline Kennedy), the governor insists he remains undecided.

Not only that, but he maintains there is not even a front-runner right now. (Again, supposedly, Caroline Kennedy.)

“I can say definitively I do not know who the next senator from New York is right now,” Paterson said. “I would swear it.”

He told reporters he might even meet with “a candidate or two” while in Washington before heading back to Albany, post-inaugural, to review questionnaires submitted by numerous applicants.

“I’m not leaning in one direction, but I think I’m focusing on a few candidates now who I think would be, in my mind, sort of finalists,” Paterson said.

How few? “I’m not going to give a number,” he replied. Nor did he offer any names.

Paterson did, however, offer a few insights into his thinking, noting that women make up more than half the population but hold only 17 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate -- a number that will fall by one when Clinton takes up her new Foggy Bottom residence as secretary of State.

“This can’t be a determining factor but is a valid point that women’s groups have raised,” Paterson said.

At the same time, Paterson continued, he has grown convinced the country’s economic problems are more than merely cyclical, meaning any Democrats he picks will have to deal with them for a number of years (presuming they’re capable of being reelected time and again, which is another criterion for his selection). “I’m giving it more credence than I did before,” Paterson said of the need for some economic creds.


Lunar notes that the last paragraph would indicate someone like Suozzi and that Paterson really wants to pick a woman

Paterson focusing heavily on economics bodes well for Suozzi considering what he did to turn around the finances here in Nassau.

[Smash255]

You'd be surprised how diverse a white Italian Catholic from the suburbs will be for the NY Democrats - the Republicans are potentially set to run an all white Italian Catholic ticket (Giuliani/King/others I forget) and some Democratic strategists are worried.

You're right on Randi natch, I was just thinking of spin

Giuliani is an Italian Catholic, King is an Irish Catholic who strongly supports Irish Terrorist Organizations.

[Smash255]

Someone should tell politico that Suozzi is the Nassau County Exec, not Suffolk

[Smash255]

Lunar,  one thing to keep in mind about the 2nd & 4th districts, is while the Dems advantage in enrollment might not seem that large they are districts which traditionally have many more cross-over Republicans than cross-over Democrats and areas which Independents break fairly strongly Democrat.   Now they aren't nearly as strong as some of the others, but both have entrenched incumbents which don't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon (unless Israel gets the nod) and in districts where the Dem bench is much deeper than the GOP bench.  Keep in mind that the State Senate advantage the GOP has on LI, is largely due to long term incumbents.  Also keep in mind and shifting within the 3rd & 4th would also likely include heavily Dem areas of the 5th in NW Nassau, or portions of the 6th in Queens.  Re-disticting could shift King's district further west along the north shore into Ackerman's heavily Dem district, pushing it further into Queens.  Or it would push King's district further west in southern & central Nassau into McCarthy's district, which would in turn push McCarthy's district further north in Ackerman's heavily Dem NW Nassau, or push McCarthy further west into Queens and Meek's heavily Dem district.

[Smash255]

I would obviously support Gillibrand over my sack of crap Congressman if she is indeed the pick, but Suozzi, Cuomo, Maloney and Israel would all be better picks for the state.

[Smash255]

Will try to find a link, but just saw on CBS 2 that rep Carolyn McCarthy NY-4 will primary Gillibrand in 2010 if she gets the nod.

[Smash255]

Hopefully this is something the media got wrong again regarding this race.

[Smash255]

Really not that happy with the pick, she is too conservative for the state.  Some of the stuff she has said to start has been encouraging, but the real test will be her voting record.   Will it be similar to what she had in the house or will it become a bit more liberal now that she is representing the whole state rather than a rural district?    Suozzi, Cuomo, Maloney or Israel would have been better picks, but we will see what her voting record is in the Senate.

[Smash255]

How come former Senator D'Amato is right up front but I can't even find Schumer?





What the hell?

Can't find it online, but saw it in today's Newsday.   Schumer was there, he was just cut off by the pic, he was standing right next to Paterson.