Smash255
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Posts: 15,464
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« on: July 05, 2008, 01:48:29 AM » |
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It is possible for Obama to get in the mid 40's in Mississippi. Not saying it will happen, but it could.
Obama will likely increase African American turnout, and African Americans will likely be a bit more Democratic than they typically are. Also whites might be slightly more Dem than they were in 04. Those who won't vote for Obama based off race are likely already in the GOP column on the Presidential level anyway. 70, 80 something whites as they die are replaced by younger whites, who are a bit more tolerant and will likely vote Dem in larger numbers than elderly whites. In some other states this might be canceled out by voters getting a bit more Republican as they get older, but outside of 20 somethings Mississippi whites are so overwhelmingly Republican already its hard to imagine them getting even more Republican.
Another side to the turnout issue, is that the elder population in Mississippi is much more white than the younger population, so that alone could increase African American turnout compared to 04, because the voting age population is likely more African American than it was in 04.
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