Because the Dems don't have enough opportunities in 2008...

[Smash255]

One of the major TV news channels had it scrolling at the bottom today that he likely wouldn't run. Glad for the great chance of a pick-up, but more importantly, kudos to Warner for his service, a very decnt man.

Great chance? This seat is basically another Santorum vs. Casey for your party if Mark Warner runs.

Davis isn't a freak however.

Yes, Davis would just get dropped kicked while Gilmore gets totally demolished.  If Mark Warner runs the seat is about as safe of a pickup as the New York's Governor's seat last year.  I don't think Davis jumps in against Warner.  He gets crushed (though not as bad as Gilmore) and likely gives the Dems another house seat in the process.

[Smash255]

Well there goes Virginia...

Dem pickups: VA, NH

Is there anybody that can seriously challenge M. Warner?  Whose this Davis guy?

Davis is a moderate Congressman from NOVA.  No one would be able to challenge Mark Warner.  He left office with approvals in the 70's.  Davis would probably be the toughest challenge, but we are basically taking about the difference of Mark Warner winning by 20 or 30.  tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

[Smash255]

Oh. I see. You mean like

Davis is a moderate Congressman from NOVA.  No one would be able to challenge Mark Warner.  He left office with approvals in the 70's.  Davis would probably be the toughest challenge, but we are basically taking about the difference of Mark Warner winning by 20 or 30.  tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

this?

Yep, that sounds about right.

I said it a bit in jest, my point was Mark Warner is going to win easily if he were to run

[Smash255]

tom Davis also comes from a house district which is trending strongly Democratic and if he ran the house seat is likely gone for the GOP.

Uh, I think you're firmly situated in a magical fantasy land where the trees are covered in gumdrops and kittens have wings and crap gold bars.

Davis' district, VA-11, is still an R+3 district.  It'd be a competitive race, but if you think its somehow a safe Democratic pick-up, well...just wash your hands after touching all those "gold bars."

Bush won the district by 0.63%, margin less than his national one. Their is no question the area is moving Democratic.  It was 2 points more Dem on the Pres level than nationally in 04, its likely to be in the 7 points more Democratic than national average range with the way that area has been moving.  Now I'm not sure who would run from either side, but with the large Democratic gains on the local level in Fairfax the Dems should have a much stronger bench.  Anyway the chances of the GOP keeping the house seat in an open race in a district in which the Dems likely have a deeper bench as well as a likely win on the Presidential level is pretty unlikely.  I do think the lack of a bench for the GOP in Louisiana is what will hurt them more than the suburban voters they lost.